Major Burg on the Potomac.

This is in direct relation to my 'WI Philly was still the American capital' topic posted a while back.

Assuming Washington City is never built, is it too much to assume some major city will develop in the OTL area of the metropolitan area? I would guess perhaps Alexandria becoming a good bit bigger than it is, since the district in general was on what *was* a major river, had a central location between two major states, and was a big port for tobacco, slaves, and the like.

I'm aware it won't nearly be as big as OTL Washington (city or metro area) without the influx of capital lobbyists, government workers, etc., but I'm wondering if a city big enough on any general map will pop up.

An oddly specific question, I know, but...
 
Pre 1790 there were three cities, at the head of the navigable portion of the Potomac.

Georgetown on the Maryland Side, Alexandria on the Virginia size, and Brandenburg port on the Anacostia.
These were on the high spots along the River, surrounded by Swamp/Marsh.

Without the draw of the Government Building, and necessary fill & drain. I don't see the three, growing more than 50~60,000, by today.
 
Thinking out loud here....

First, there's Baltimore, less than 40 miles away. Would that proximity prevent a large rival developing on the Potomac? By 1830 or so, trade on the upper Potomac was being diverted (if that's the right word) to Baltimore by the Baltimore & Ohio Railroad and the Chesapeake & Ohio Canal. So Alexandria and Georgetown had that portion of their hinterland denied them. They might have developed into small cities of local importance.

Next, think about what cities are at the fall line on other rivers in the region. Not, this time, as rivals to a Potomac city, but as indicators of what might develop there. You've got Fredericksburg, Va., Richmond, Petersburg.... Richmond might be about as big as something on the Potomac could get. But I'd guess smaller, with Baltimore that close.

(This brings to mind a book I read once on the geography of colonial Pennsylvania, which points out that the most significant cities in the area other than Philadelphia were all at least 50 miles from it. Anything closer never took off. Allentown, Lancaster, Reading, Harrisburg all had populations of at least 60,000 a few decades ago before they began to decline. York was only a bit smaller. That gives us most of the county seats in the Pennsylvania Piedmont. And they're clustered relatively close together. But they're all at least 50 miles from Philadelphia. The county seats closer to Philadelphia are all considerably smaller and always have been. They're suburbs now but before 20th-century suburbanization they were just small towns.)
 
Very much obliged for the discussion, gents. :)

Ironically, I suppose if everything sans capital somehow goes right Alexandria's OTL population of 140,000 might be it anyways, as you've pointed out, Michaelinphilly...it's about 43 miles away from Baltimore, so that's a plus going with what you said about the Philadelphia-close towns, but Baltimore's even more similar to what this Potomac-town would be doing...

Is it utterly ludicrous to assume OTL Alexandria's population of 140,000 with perhaps a total metro of 200,000-250,000 may pop up? Maybe a bit more bigger metro? And yes, watch me reveal my utter ignorance of economics and rival geography tying in here. :rolleyes::p

(I'm only using Alexandria as a placeholder, since it seems to have been the biggest port in the area by the time a capital was finally permanently placed)
 
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I was just rereading my post and thinking about the "Pennsylvania Piedmont" (which may not be a term anyone in Pennsylvania would actually use, but you know what I mean - the area below the first major mountains).... The population centers farther west than Harrisburg and York are much smaller than the Harrisburg-Lancaster class. (We're talking Gettysburg, Carlisle, Chambersburg, if we just take the county seats.) Which I think brings us back to the Baltimore influence: what those cities have in common is that they're west of the Susquehanna. Meaning that until railroads came to predominate, the trade from those areas fed into Baltimore (since it was easier, once you hit the Susquehanna with your wagon of produce or whatever, to go down it to Chesapeake Bay than it was to cross it and continue east to Philadelphia).

And Annapolis has really not grown much since Baltimore got big. Which is why its downtown is so 18th-century-looking. If it weren't the state capital it might have stagnated. I'm imagining it ending up like New Castle, Del. - beautifully preserved colonial city because nothing's happened there since the railroad bypassed it for Wilmington - or Williamsburg before it was tarted up.

Baltimore is still bigger than Washington if you just look at population within city limits. In the early to mid-19th century it was the biggest city in the country south and west of Philadelphia. I think I'd see it as the dominant metropolis of that Maryland-central Pennsylvania-Virginia region, with Richmond and Norfolk as its biggest rivals. Or, if some things had gone differently, the biggest city or even capital of the Confederacy.
 
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Also, I wonder how much of Alexandria's current population (is it as high as 140,000? I'd have guessed 120. Must be growing faster than I thought.) is attributable to Alexandria itself, if you know what I mean, rather than to its being at this point a suburb of Washington....
 
I remember on a visit to Alexandria about a year ago with a university group, we had a guy talk about the history of the city. He said that before being incorporated into DC, Alexandria was one of the biggest areas for naval commerce in the Mid-Atlantic, and was starting to be a rival of Baltimore. So I suppose you could have two major seaports in those states instead of one (well, maybe three if you count Norfolk). One of them would probably decline as railroads and canals were developed though since they allow more concentration of goods distribution centers IMO.
 
I saw the thread title, and wondered which theatre of the CW the good major had fought in that you wanted to transfer him to the Army of the Potomac:)

Seriously, DC is a swamp. The reason there WASN'T a city there, the reason it was available, was no one wanted to build there.
 
I would be willing to place my money on anyplace in Fairfax, County. It is a massive county, geographically speaking. It has a many miles of the Potomac River, it also has part of the Occuquan too.

Remember that Alexandria is two parts. Part of Alexandria is an independent city. The other part, along the route 1 corridor in hybla valley and Mount Vernon is part of Fairfax County. I would say you could put a major city between Mclean and Alexandria, where the Potomac river runs.

Further to the South, there is Norfolk on the coast, with its massive shipping and naval potential. Richmond would be another great choice, a city divided by the James River. South Side from North Side. Richmond is not too far from Fredrickburg or Williamsburg, about 40 miles in easch direction.
 
There is the Question of Why the Capital is not at Georgetown/Alexandria.

Assuming that it is a Failure of Hamilton's Comprise.
The next big Growth Factor will be the 1830's Gold Rush. With the Gold in the Great Falls area, this will favor Alexandria.

However this will be followed by the Railroad times, the Railroad will be on the North side of the Potomac, for the same reasons the C&O Canal was placed there. [flatter land]
Without the Capital being on the Potomac, I don't see the Investment in a C&O canal.

As a major Rail Junction/Port, Georgetown over takes Alexandria, and continues a slow steady growth till the end of the Railroad era [1950's]
It is the second largest city in Marysland [Sorry Hagerstown:(] at just over 100,000 people, with a heavy German [Austrian] Influence.
With the Confederate City of Alexandria just across the River, Georgetown is a Major Export Centre on the East Coast.
[Without the Washington City/Richmond corridor, the CS sends more resources into holding the West]

Assume the Capitol is placed at Sharpsburg like Washington wanted.

With Washington's support the C&O is started in the late 1790's.
By the time the Erie is started in the 1820's, the C&O is almost complete.
As the Southern Terminus of the Canal Georgetown is a major port.
Not even the [Alexandria] Virginia Gold Rush of the 1830's can shake Georgetown's Rising Importance.
Following Maryland's abolishtion of Slavery, Georgetown became a major stop on the Underground Railroad.
Today Georgetown is a small industrial City of 200 ~250,000 people.
 
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