Mahmud II is killed; The end of the Eastern Question

Mahmud II dying in 1807- I think that if the Ottoman Empire falls apart prior to the Congress of Vienna, that is the only realistic POD that would avoid some of the subsequent bloodshed in that region.

With the end of the House of Osman, the Serbs might be able to grab a large section of the Balkans. Add in a Greek rebellion and the Congress of Vienna. With these new Balkans states emerging it would provide thrones to put displaced German and Italian princes on. Serbia and Greece definitely. Maybe Bulgaria and Rumania.

The relatively bloodless emergence of Balkans' nationalisms, and then immediately tying those new nations into the European system, where they can be exposed to Western European liberalism, combined with 30 plus years of peaceful, independent development before the disorder of 1848, could all combine to create a less ethnically divided Balkans. The focus of western european nationalism on language could also result in broader national definitions- Muslim and Orthodox both speak Serbo-Croatian- thus all are identified as Serbs. With new monarchies who want to build relatively broad-based support, focusing on language would make sense.

As for what happens outside of the Balkans to the Ottoman Empire, Mehmet Ali gets himself recognized as the Sultan of Egypt, then procedes to seize as much of Syria as possible, and grab the Holy Sites. With control of Jerusalem and the Holy Cities, maybe Mehmet makes a pitch for leadership of the post-Osman Empire (since I don't think he has the military ability to make a real bid)?

There are still Girays and perhaps collateral branches of the Osman floating around the Ottoman Empire. The British at least would have an interest in a larger state being able to maintain itself in Constantinople, and could engineer the elevation of a British-backed candidate to the throne of the *Ottoman Empire.
 

Keenir

Banned
Mahmud II dying in 1807- I think that if the Ottoman Empire falls apart prior to the Congress of Vienna, that is the only realistic POD that would avoid some of the subsequent bloodshed in that region.

in the Balkans and the Middle East?

uh, okay...let's see.

With the end of the House of Osman, the Serbs might be able to grab a large section of the Balkans. Add in a Greek rebellion and the Congress of Vienna. With these new Balkans states emerging it would provide thrones to put displaced German and Italian princes on. Serbia and Greece definitely. Maybe Bulgaria and Rumania.

The relatively bloodless emergence of Balkans' nationalisms,

if they're getting all nationalistic, why would they be content with yet more foreigners ordering them about?

and then immediately tying those new nations into the European system, where they can be exposed to Western European liberalism, combined with 30 plus years of peaceful, independent development before the disorder of 1848, could all combine to create a less ethnically divided Balkans. The focus of western european nationalism on language could also result in broader national definitions- Muslim and Orthodox both speak Serbo-Croatian- thus all are identified as Serbs. With new monarchies who want to build relatively broad-based support, focusing on language would make sense.

and their internal enemies would be...who?

seriously, its a nice idea, but why would it be peaceful and independent when they've just changed overlords and owners? (much less with borders suddenly cropping up)
As for what happens outside of the Balkans to the Ottoman Empire, Mehmet Ali gets himself recognized as the Sultan of Egypt, then procedes to seize as much of Syria as possible, and grab the Holy Sites. With control of Jerusalem and the Holy Cities, maybe Mehmet makes a pitch for leadership of the post-Osman Empire (since I don't think he has the military ability to make a real bid)?

didn't he strike against the Greek rebels in OTL? sounds like military ability.
 
I could definitely see various Pashas or Ottoman governors making plays to create their own states out of the ruins of the Ottoman Empire. They were quite powerful during this period IIRC...
 
if they're getting all nationalistic, why would they be content with yet more foreigners ordering them about?

The new states in the Balkans would accept European monarchs because that was the only way for the European Great Powers to force the No-longer-Ottoman Empire to recognize the new states.

and their internal enemies would be...who?

seriously, its a nice idea, but why would it be peaceful and independent when they've just changed overlords and owners? (much less with borders suddenly cropping up)
The Ottoman Empire appears to have been at a very low point when this POD takes place. The center is in choas, Mehmet Ali is grabbing sections of the Middle East, and probably the British are in Constantinople trying to find a new Sultan to rule the no-longer-Ottoman Empire. That means that perpherial areas of the Empire are going to be able to walk away with relatively little fighting.

There are points of contention in politics outside of appeals for bloody-minded tribalism. The points of contention that might even result in violence. But creating a nationalism that is based on language and not religion is going to make huge waves in the Balkans.

didn't he strike against the Greek rebels in OTL? sounds like military ability.
The Greek Revolution happened 13 years after these ATL events. Ali hasn't had the intervening time to build up his Army and Navy. I don't think that Ali had the military force or logistical ability to march on Constantinople, and would probably have his hands full grabbing the Levant and the Holy Cities. What I'm saying is that Mehmet Ali, from his base in Egypt, is not going to be able to take over the no-longer-Ottoman Empire.
 

Keenir

Banned
The new states in the Balkans would accept European monarchs because that was the only way for the European Great Powers to force the No-longer-Ottoman Empire to recognize the new states.

wait...the Ottomans are gone -- and the Balkans are wanting protection from the Ottomans?

from the HRE and Russia, sure.

There are points of contention in politics outside of appeals for bloody-minded tribalism. The points of contention that might even result in violence. But creating a nationalism that is based on language and not religion is going to make huge waves in the Balkans.

very true: dividing the Balkans along linguistic lines would be about as peaceful as dividing China along linguistic lines: you might say "these are two dialects, so they go in one nation" and someone else says "no, those are two languages, so they are each a nation".
 
If Mahmud dies in 1807 it's going to drastically alter the Napoleonic Wars. Afterall the Ottoman Empire's already at war with Russia, and with the Peace of Tilsit France would be obligated to aid Russia against the Ottomans.

With the Ottoman Empire coming apart at the seams, I could see Napoleon and Alexander I carving up the Ottoman Empire. I could see France marching through the Illyrian Provinces to take over Bosnia, Serbia, and Greece while Russia takes over the Danubian Principalities, Bulgaria and marches on Constantinople.

Now, obviously the Ottoman Empire's going to change it's tune regarding the French/Russians removing the reason for the Anglo-Turkish War. In all likelihood I'd wager that the UK sides with the strongest claimant to the Ottoman throne and attempts to hold Istanbul and the Straits against the Russians/French. I could see this conflict becoming similiar to British campaigns in Portugal (French involvement in the Balkans may butterfly away the war in Spain.)

You might also see an earlier War of the Fifth Coalition with Austria attempting to interfere in the Franco-Russian ambitions in the Balkans. But given their situation I think it's likely that they'll get slapped down. Eventually however, Russia and France are going to go at it over the continental system. This results in the Balkans becoming even more of a mess as I could see Greece switching sides and perhaps Albania under Ali Pasha, maybe Serbia going up against the French.

Eventually Napoleon gets defeated and everything is sent to the Congress of Vienna for arbitration. Mehmet Ali's Egypt becomes independent taking Syria and Palestine with it, maybe Iraq as well. Russia gets Armenia and probably a chunk of what is today Eastern Turkey. The Danubian Principalities become Russian Satellite states along with Bulgaria. The Illyrian provinces are returned to Austria while the rest of the Ottoman Empire's European territories are divided between Ali Pasha's Albania, Serbia, and Greece. The Ottoman Empire itself is reduced to a rump state roughly analogous to today's Turkey (though perhaps no Thrace).

After that it's tough to say, The Austro-Hungarian Empire probably earns the monicker of "The Sick Man of Europe". Though I have no Idea how Balkan politics would play out...
 
Collapses of multi-ethnic states don't happen without bloodshed.

If anything, the bloodshed would come sooner and be more extensive as the Balkan Christians killed everyone else in the region. The new leaders will be a mix of outsiders propped up by European powers, former Ottoman officials, and peasants both lucky and probably incompetent. They aren't going to form neat nation-states, they're going to form petty units of local power from which they will attempt to assert themselves.

Honestly, at this stage, there's nowhere to put a neat nation-state. There is an ethnic/religious jumble everywhere. Even Greece, as OTL, will take a mass of ethnic cleansing to be made thoroughly Greek.
 
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