Magyars Defeat the Pechenegs

Suppose that the Magyar tribes manage to defeat the Pechenegs, and remain settled in Moldavia and southern Ukraine. Can the Magyars survive intact in this area, or will later invasions (Cumans, frex) disperse their population and disrupt any state-formation?

Regardless of what happens on the Pontic steppe, who grabs the Pannonian plain from the disintegrating Avars? The Croats, Frankish Empire, and Bulgarians all seem to have made some incursions before the Magyar tribes moved in, and IIRC, the Franks tried to solicit local slavic support against the Avars and Bulgarian empire.

Speaking of the Bulgarians, would they manage to keep Wallachia? They'd seem to have the resources with it to be much more dangerous to Constantinople, at least. Perhaps this brings the Magyars and Byzantines together, facilitating the former's conversion?
 
How about letting the slavic Pannonian Principality that the Hungarians destroyed survive?
 
How about letting the slavic Pannonian Principality that the Hungarians destroyed survive?

That was mostly in the northeast, right? Sort of a mega-Slovakia? I suppose that is the question though, would they survive independent with the Magyar tribes staying east of the Carpathians?

I wonder where that principality would look to in terms of Christian conversion, Rome or Constantinople?
 
No, you are talking about Greater Moravia, the Pannonian state is centerd on Balaton

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principality_of_Lower_Pannonia

Ah, you're right, sorry.

It seems like it was loosely vassalized to East Francia. Judging by the other historical examples, the Pannonian principality could follow Croatia to full independence, be gradually absorbed and assimilated like the Sorbs and Wends, or end up autonomous like Bohemia. Replicating the success of the Magyars and then Hungary though seems like a tall order.

On the other hand, Great Moravia is falling apart at this time. Perhaps the Pannonian principality manages to absorb the Principality of Nitra and the rest of what would be Slovakia, and consolidate itself from there.

Do you think the Magyars have any staying power where they are?
 
The question about Magyar staying power is a hard one that I don´t think I am qualified to answer but if they beat of the Pechenegs they should have a good chance as they haven´t lost a big part of their population ( supposedly the magyars lost the majority of their women and children OTL). They will however be under pressure from the Pechenegs, Rus and possibly Bulgarians. So perhaps an alliance with the Byzantines?
 
The Romanians are still threatened by the Slavs from the Pannonia and the Croats, would they get assimilated by the Slavs?

:eek:

Romanians threatened by the Croats that is a new one.


Without the Magyar migration the whole of Romania will most likely remain in Bulgarian hands as it was prior to the Bulgar-Magyar war. The limit of their rule will be the river Tisza. The land between Tisza and Danube will remain a no mans land still settled by remnants of the Avars (it wasn't known back then as the "Avar desolation" for no reason). Pannonian Slavs around Balaton survive as an entity doing a balancing act between the Franks and the Bulgars. The centre following the acension of Braslav would shift southwards around Sisak so by the time Constantine Porfirogenetus writes his DAI there will be three states Croatia, Pannonia/Slavonia and Moravia keeping the Slavs in the north and the south united so that might butterfly the division into south slavic and west slavic language and the entire slavdom will most likely develop into one enourmouse dialect continuum.


Oh and the Bulgarians by the end of the 10th century totaly devastate the Romans.
 
:eek:

Romanians threatened by the Croats that is a new one.


Without the Magyar migration the whole of Romania will most likely remain in Bulgarian hands as it was prior to the Bulgar-Magyar war. The limit of their rule will be the river Tisza. The land between Tisza and Danube will remain a no mans land still settled by remnants of the Avars (it wasn't known back then as the "Avar desolation" for no reason). Pannonian Slavs around Balaton survive as an entity doing a balancing act between the Franks and the Bulgars. The centre following the acension of Braslav would shift southwards around Sisak so by the time Constantine Porfirogenetus writes his DAI there will be three states Croatia, Pannonia/Slavonia and Moravia keeping the Slavs in the north and the south united so that might butterfly the division into south slavic and west slavic language and the entire slavdom will most likely develop into one enourmouse dialect continuum.


Oh and the Bulgarians by the end of the 10th century totaly devastate the Romans.
How would OTL Romanian develop ITTL? would Romanians or Vlachs be assimilated to the Slavs?
 
In my TL the answer was "Byzantinized-Bulgars and Fracoized-Slavs" since Bohemia ended up ruling the western half, and Byzantium (having absorbed the Bulgars) ruled the eastern.
 
In my TL the answer was "Byzantinized-Bulgars and Fracoized-Slavs" since Bohemia ended up ruling the western half, and Byzantium (having absorbed the Bulgars) ruled the eastern.

So basicaly what happened OTL :D


How would OTL Romanian develop ITTL? would Romanians or Vlachs be assimilated to the Slavs?

Honestly I have no idea, assimilation is not a straitforward thing. It might happen is the best I can say.
 
How about letting the slavic Pannonian Principality that the Hungarians destroyed survive?

Which one do you mean ? The Balaton one founded by Pribina and other Nitran exiles or Great Moravia to the north or both of them ?

In truth, it was a more complicated process, and at least in the case of Great Moravia, the ancient Magyar tribes mostly just finished the job (the empire was falling apart by itself during the 890s). Having the tribes stay closer to the Ukrainian-Moldavian steppe is an interesting idea - though it could bite them in the arse later in the future, because they'll be far more vulnerable to foreign attacks than in the case if they settled the Carpathian-Pannonian basin.

As for what happens to the Slavic tribes living under the Carpathians without the presence of Magyars : All bets are off. There will be some familiar developments to OTL, but it will be a very different evolution of the local ethnicities nonetheless. Without the Magyars bugging the Franks and no country forming to take GM's place after its collapse, we could see a string of western border territories with a more mixed, Frankish-Slavic identity. What happens with the Polish tribes is also up in the air. I'm sure about one thing : With butterflies this size, there will be no such thing as Slovaks and, for the most part, Czechs or Poles, in this ATL. Local ethnicities would probably evolve along more fractured lines and there would probably be a bit more of them, but it's hard to tell, really. There is the possibility that Pribina might retake his former territories in post-collapse GM and add them to his new colonies around Balaton. Add some Frankish influence and you could get a very odd feudal Slavic state in OTL west Slovakia and west Hungary.

On the other hand, Great Moravia is falling apart at this time. Perhaps the Pannonian principality manages to absorb the Principality of Nitra and the rest of what would be Slovakia, and consolidate itself from there.

Ah, beat me to it. :D But yeah, it's one possibility if GM kicks the bucket and the Magyars don't come to Pannonia.
 
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As for what happens to the Slavic tribes living under the Carpathians without the presence of Magyars : All bets are off. There will be some familiar developments to OTL, but it will be a very different evolution of the local ethnicities nonetheless. Without the Magyars bugging the Franks and no country forming to take GM's place after its collapse, we could see a string of western border territories with a more mixed, Frankish-Slavic identity. What happens with the Polish tribes is also up in the air. I'm sure about one thing : With butterflies this size, there will be no such thing as Slovaks and, for the most part, Czechs or Poles, in this ATL. Local ethnicities would probably evolve along more fractured lines and there would probably be a bit more of them, but it's hard to tell, really. There is the possibility that Pribina might retake his former territories in post-collapse GM and add them to his new colonies around Balaton. Add some Frankish influence and you could get a very odd feudal Slavic state in OTL west Slovakia and west Hungary.
Ah, beat me to it. :D But yeah, it's one possibility if GM kicks the bucket and the Magyars don't come to Pannonia.
Or without Hungarians we can see quicker rise of Czech and Polish kingdom which would fight over territories of Great Moravia. Add Franks into that and we can see Pannonian principality going to Franks. In OTL around 1003 AD Poland occupied territories of today Slovakia. With fall of Great Moravia they may do that early. Or Great Moravia without pressure from Magyars Moravia can put their act together. There are some references in which is mentioned Maravia as northern Hungarian neighbor till around 950.
I do not think creation of more nationalities in area will be likely and actually I believe there would be less. Maybe Czechs and Poles or we will see after of dissolving of Great Moravia Czechs behind west Carpathians, Poles in area north of Tatras. And Slovaks will be known as Moravians in area approximatly of todays Slovakia. I am not sure if population base in this Moravia would be big enough to move South or instead of Hungarians we would see rise of Panonian Principality and as Marko said abov, we will see continued Slavic areas from Adriatic to Baltic. It would be interesting to see how similar would be languages of Czechs, Moravians and Panonians and how huge would be their cultural interactions. ;)
 
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