Madhouse: The 2000 election

In 2000 there was polling showing McCain at 24% vs Gore at 34% and Bush at 35% had McCain run Reform. Historically he didn't so, probably wisely.

Let's say McCain is feeling particularly angry after South Carolina and takes the leap. He gets Angus King of Maine to be his running mate.

Lieberman opts not to be Gore's running mate, not wanting to run against his friend John. Gore is more concerned with centrist voters than historically and thus picks an even more centrist running mate - Evan Bayh.

Gore's increased focus on the center boosts Ralph Nader who polls better than historically. Furthermore, Nader gets Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney (who was speculated as a running mate historically) to be his running mate. Nader historically peaked at 6% polling in June 2000 (4.5% average in July, 3% average in August) but here he gets up to 10%.

Come debate time, Bush is polling 37%, Gore is polling 34%, McCain is polling 19%, and Nader is polling 8%.

McCain satisfies the criteria and is invited to the debates. Bush, seeing McCain as mostly hurting himself, calls for Nader's inclusion. McCain likewise calls for Nader's inclusion. Gore ultimately acquiesces and says he supports Nader's inclusion.

Thus, the debates end up being 4-Way. As for how the election goes, I'm thinking of writing a timeline on this concept and don't wanna give it away.

Thoughts?
 
An interesting, if implausible scenario IMO. I'm sure you've got something specific in mind, but I think you'd need more than just "McCain gets real angry about South Carolina" to make him take the leap to the Reform Party. Maybe a particularly nasty incident occurs directly between himself and Bush, with the governor feeding into the baseless rumors about McCain's alleged illegitimate child. Or, some kind of allegations of campaign finance violation on Bush's part might do the trick. All in all though, definitely an interesting TL proposition; i'm curious to see how it works out.
 
and Nader is polling 8%

I think Nader would actually do worse here, since McCain would suck out his remaining appeal to independent voters. (Remember, 60% of his vote came from Democrats while the other 40% came from Republicans). He gets more like 1.5% instead of his OTL 2.7%
 
I think Nader would actually do worse here, since McCain would suck out his remaining appeal to independent voters. (Remember, 60% of his vote came from Democrats while the other 40% came from Republicans). He gets more like 1.5% instead of his OTL 2.7%

Possibly, but I also think that he'd be doing much stronger with the left if (a) Gore is running to the center even moreso than OTL by picking Evan Bayh and (b) he has a sitting congresswoman as his running mate. It'd mean more money, more attention, and more name-ID. I'm not saying Nader stays at 8% come election day, just that his poll numbers are around where Perot's were in 1992 come September and Bush gets opportunistic as the race tightens.


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With McCain a viable option in the race, I wonder what will happen to Dubya's campaign when the DUI comes out just before election day. Perhaps there'd be a last-minute dash of Bush voters to McCain?
 
Lieberman opts not to be Gore's running mate, not wanting to run against his friend John. Gore is more concerned with centrist voters than historically and thus picks an even more centrist running mate - Evan Bayh.

Jackson Lennock wrote that Liebermann is free for his friend John, though in his version Angus King is McCain's running mate. In my opinion is more probable a Mike Huckabee-Dick Cheney (a very conservative ticket is necessary if McCain leaves the GOP) vs Al Gore-John Kerry vs John McCain-Joe Libermann vs Ralph Nader-Cynthia McKinney.
 
How about this?

McCain in the race as an independent flips Pennsylvania for Bush and Florida for Gore, and costs both men states elsewhere. No one has an overall majority.
genusmap.php
 
I was thinking of something more like this would be possible. Bayh gives Gore a boost with moderate to conservative voters in Tennessee, Missouri, and Ohio as well as swings his home state of Indiana for Bush. Running more to the center, PNW progressives vote for Nader in higher numbers.

Gore/Bayh - 277 (34.2%)
Bush/Cheney - 227 (32.2%)
McCain/King - 34 (27.8%)
Nader/McKinney - 0 (5.4%)

I figure McCain's 27.4% over Buchanan's OTL 0.4% is taken 55-45 Bush-Gore and Nader's extra 2.7% TTL is 70-30 Gore-Bush.


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However, Tom Ridge might be Bush's running mate I think since there'll be more of a need to target moderates with McCain in the race (all the others in the final 6 were either too old, too liberal, or had long-term ambitions of their own who might have blocked Jeb). In that case, PA is blue and McCain probably does better in Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, and Washington.. In such a case, it goes to the house where the GOP controlled most delegations that year (although who knows how voter turnout changes will affect house races - the house PV was only 47.1-47.6 that year so the house could feasibly swing to the dems).
 

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