MAD Deterrence Discredited

Ive been learning a bit on Cold War theory and my only conclusion is that the whole thing was a stupid mess. However this thread idea did come up in a videogame.

Able Archer was a NATO wargame in 1983 that seems to have been pretty much a nuclear weapons version of 'made you flinch'. Near the same time a Russian soldier received a false alert that the Americans were sending a nuclear first strike.

So lets say the warning malfunction rather than 'just' a few rockets, said that a crap load were heading for the Soviet Union. In response, the Russian soldier Petrov sends the info to his superiors and the Soviet Union which was already geared up for war in response to Able Archer, goes all out preparing for a return strike (very publicly), as in "OMG we're all DOOMED! IM TAKING THOSE CAPITALIST BASTARDS DOWN WITH ME".

Then more problems hit, Andropov is sick at the moment and cant be contacted. Authority falls on to the military. Right before they give the order to attack they realize... that they arnt willing to be the ones that unleash armageddon on the world. Somehow they manage to prevent the military from launching a retaliation strike. Then things get sorted out by a combination of NATO begging for the Sovs to stand down by providing proof of no nuclear attack and mechanical malfunctions in the warning system being fixed.

For the Soviet Union bad things will happen probably. They've just shown the world that the leadership is not willing to respond to an attack by the West, the Cold War will probably end in a few years in Western victory. Or maybe not.

So what do you think will happen now?

Bonus Side B questions: What if something like this happened to the US? Or happened earlier than 1983?

It may not be very plausible or likely but dont say its ASB, weirder things have happened.
 
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archaeogeek

Banned
The main problem is that you'd need the entire soviet leadership to go completely insane; their nuclear retaliation policy was very conservative and there was no real way the Soviets would have done a first strike short of complete madness. There's a story I was told at some point; the premier of the time, completely drunk, had given the order to launch the nukes. The general staff reacted to it by simply deciding to do nothing and hope he'd have forgotten what he said once he'd have sobered up. The entire soviet general staff would probably have spent as much time obstructing the very idea of launching doomsday.
 
The main problem is that you'd need the entire soviet leadership to go completely insane; their nuclear retaliation policy was very conservative and there was no real way the Soviets would have done a first strike short of complete madness. There's a story I was told at some point; the premier of the time, completely drunk, had given the order to launch the nukes. The general staff reacted to it by simply deciding to do nothing and hope he'd have forgotten what he said once he'd have sobered up. The entire soviet general staff would probably have spent as much time obstructing the very idea of launching doomsday.
Yeah thats basically what i was saying except more cleaned up than my text wall. The Soviet leadership thinks about launching a second strike (not a first strike, they think the Americans attacked first) but find that they cant do it.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Yeah thats basically what i was saying except more cleaned up than my text wall. The Soviet leadership thinks about launching a second strike (not a first strike, they think the Americans attacked first) but find that they cant do it.

Ah thanks, much better when it's legible...

So basically a sudden sanity boost where they realize MAD is not so much peace as "peace until a loon pushes the button anyway"?
 

The Dude

Banned
I doubt they would actually press the button. You see, the Soviets had a system called "dead hand". It would fire the nukes even in the event of a total nuclear first strike on the Soviet Union. They would just evacuate the major cities as best they could, relocate the politburo, and wait.
 
I doubt they would actually press the button. You see, the Soviets had a system called "dead hand". It would fire the nukes even in the event of a total nuclear first strike on the Soviet Union. They would just evacuate the major cities as best they could, relocate the politburo, and wait.
Was my post really that confusing? :confused:

Should I edit out the filler details? Would that make the post more clear? As for the subject of dead hand, im under the assumption it only works if Moscow is destroyed. Which it is not in my scenario.
 
By the 1980's, didn't the US and USSR have the satellite capability to detect/confirm/dismiss claims of missile launch?
 
By the 1980's, didn't the US and USSR have the satellite capability to detect/confirm/dismiss claims of missile launch?
Yeah thats the key point of the scenario, the system malfunctioned worst than rl and the military assumes the worst.
 
I recall someone quoting a former US President saying that he was having trouble dealing with the fact that he could order a full-scale nuclear attack, but he got over it when he realized that there were no possible circumstances under which he would ever do so. I don't remember which president it was, but the man giving the talk suggested that beneath the rhetoric, no one was actually willing to launch a nuclear attack, perhaps even a retaliation. So if the Soviets flinch, I don't think it will change much, except perhaps lead to less sabre-rattling on both sides about nuclear weapons; less from the Soviets because they've already shown they're not willing to do it, and less from the West because they(and the public?) know that there's no immediate danger of a Soviet nuclear attack.
 
I say there is little/no change aside from a possible easing of tensions... something which ironically could mean the USSR's survival for a few more years if the rhetoric starts to ratchet down.

Just because the Soviets flinched this time does not magically take away the 10k+ nukes they have nor does it at all guarantee they would flinch the next time...

People on both sides will be shaken as hell by the incredibly close call that happened, but I don't think the US will be belligerent about it nor would the USSR be apologetic or somehow lose face.

MAD CANNOT be 'discredited' as long as the nukes exist... it is not a ruse that the USSR and USA have the means to destroy the world...
 
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Well, the laundry bill in all capitals will skyrocket. :p

The positive thing is that the politicos on both sides of the iron curtain will probably tone down their rhetorics. No "bombing of Russia starts in 5 min" jokes or "we will bury you" outbursts any more.
 
I recall someone quoting a former US President saying that he was having trouble dealing with the fact that he could order a full-scale nuclear attack, but he got over it when he realized that there were no possible circumstances under which he would ever do so. I don't remember which president it was, but the man giving the talk suggested that beneath the rhetoric, no one was actually willing to launch a nuclear attack, perhaps even a retaliation. So if the Soviets flinch, I don't think it will change much, except perhaps lead to less sabre-rattling on both sides about nuclear weapons; less from the Soviets because they've already shown they're not willing to do it, and less from the West because they(and the public?) know that there's no immediate danger of a Soviet nuclear attack.

I say there is little/no change aside from a possible easing of tensions... something which ironically could mean the USSR's survival for a few more years if the rhetoric starts to ratchet down.

Just because the Soviets flinched this time does not magically take away the 10k+ nukes they have nor does it at all guarantee they would flinch the next time...

People on both sides will be shaken as hell by the incredibly close call that happened, but I don't think the US will be belligerent about it nor would the USSR be apologetic or somehow lose face.

Hm both interesting and more optimistic scenarios than mine. I didnt think of looking at them that way. I would have thought America would try to push this advantage (the president was Reagan :rolleyes:), but then again like you said, people would be scared as fuck over what just happened. I know i would be freaking out.

or "we will bury you" outbursts any more.
Thats pretty sad, in my opinion those were some of the best things to come out of the Cold War.
 
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