Macarthur more careful in 1950, checks China on the Yalu river?

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What effect would it have had on the course of the 20th century if during the Korean war Macarthur was more careful in his approach to the Yalu River and managed to blunt the Chinese attack, settling the lines down near the Sino-Korean border? How would the war play out and what would the aftermath look like if that is where the lines ended?

koreamapbg.jpg


http://www.history.army.mil/books/AMH/Map25-45.jpg
 
What effect would it have had on the course of the 20th century if during the Korean war Macarthur was more careful in his approach to the Yalu River and managed to blunt the Chinese attack, settling the lines down near the Sino-Korean border? How would the war play out and what would the aftermath look like if that is where the lines ended?

koreamapbg.jpg


http://www.history.army.mil/books/AMH/Map25-45.jpg

Assume for sake of argument the successful defence involved forming a defence line south of the Taedong river - at a narrow part of the peninsula anyway - and only sending smaller forces north towards the border.

The Chinese might come on anyway but it would give a postwar situation where they did not drive the combined might of the Western world down most of the length of the Korean Peninsula. Instead they would have tangled with some regiment sized forces before slamming headfirst into a brick wall.

So Mao and/or the PLA would not have the bragging rights they got after the war. There has to be an internal political issue in China over that, lots of young men killed and no hordes of UN prisoners to show for it, just a buffer zone that MacArthur had announced at a press conference well before the PLA entered the war.

It would also have to affect the 'Wars of National Liberation' era. The cliche of the peasant army from an underdeveloped country "liberating the workers and peasants from the imperialists" just lost a major Propaganda Tool.

This might also affect the French Indochina War. Will the Americans be more or less willing to support the French without the disaster at the Yalu to shake them up? There was a huge boost in US material supplied to the French effort during the Korean War. Would that go up or down?

Will the Chinese be more or less willing to supply Ho Chi Minh with less evidence that their brand of warfare works against Western forces? Who will get purged over the decidedly less than expected victory?

Those are just my first thoughts on this. It could have huge effects.
 
Depends on when (and where) he's more careful.

Best case scenario has him order a halt and take a defensive posture after the PLA First Phase Offensive.

If the Second Phase Offensive attacks a UN force dug in and ready for one, rather than attempting to continue their advance, it's gonna be one hell of mess for the PRC.

The BIG butterfly off a failed SPO is that Stalin only sent the MiGs to Andong after the PLA achieved such a rousing success with the SPO.

If the SPO is a disaster for the PLA, Stalin ain't sending the MiGs to Andong. No MiGs in Andong, no MiG Alley. No MiG Alley, nothing to stop UN air power from controlling the skies over the Korean peninsula.

Of course, where it all goes from there depends on the rest of the consequences of a catastrophic defeat for the PLA's SPO; Mao's position in the PRC, Stalin's reaction to his largest ally tossing the dice and losing big against the west, whether or not Kim still has any actual Koreans to continue to fight the war with, the CCP's reaction to such a huge loss on such a huge gamble, the condition of the UN ground forces when the SPO ends, etc...

It'll make 1952 a very interesting year, to say the least...
 
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That scenario is different, as it starts with Dougout Dougie's death.

Keep him alive, but allow him to bomb the Yalu River bridges and that gets you halfway to your goal.

Officially the PRC claimed they wouldn't have crossed the Yalu if only ROK forces entered into NK territory, but you can take that for whatever you think that's worth.:rolleyes:

China will always enjoy good LOCs up to the Korean border itself. But then the thorny (or downright nasty) issue of safe zones come into play. With the military combat lines closing up to the Yalu, where do air operations become forbidden? Its inevitable using 40s era military tech that navigational mistakes will be made. Not only will Dougie be demanding that strikes be made into Manchuria (whatever his insane political ideas for Chiang), but the dangers of hitting targets around the very nearby Soviet city of Vladivostok become not just very real but it almost certainly will become a routine occurrence. WWIII:eek:

At least with better tech and the nature of the geography the US was in little danger of hitting the Chinese mainland in the Vietnam War, but getting both China and the USSR involved in the fighting head on should there be sustained fighting at or near the Yalu is almost inevitable, meaning a full on conflagration on the ground.

Depends on when (and where) he's more careful.

Best case scenario has him order a halt and take a defensive posture after the PLA First Phase Offensive.

This is Dougie we are talking about.:rolleyes:

If the Second Phase Offensive attacks a UN force dug in and ready for one, rather than attempting to continue their advance, it's gonna be one hell of mess for the PRC.

The BIG butterfly off a failed SPO is that Stalin only sent the MiGs Andong after the PLA achieved such a rousing success with the SPO.

If the SPO is a disaster for the PLA, Stalin ain't sending the MiGs to Andong. No MiGs in Andong, no MiG Alley. No MiG Alley, nothing to stop UN air power from controlling the skies over the Korean peninsula.
IDK. I can't see Stalin letting his minions (as he still thought Mao to be at this time) be so brutally trounced like this. And the Mig-15 does represent as much a game changer in Korea as the P-51 did in WWII USAAF strategic bombing.

Of course, where it all goes from there depends on the rest of the consequences of a catastrophic defeat for the PLA's SPO; Mao's position in the PRC, Stalin's reaction to his largest ally tossing the dice and losing big against the west, whether or not Kim still has any actual Koreans to continue to fight the war with, the CCP's reaction to such a huge loss on such a huge gamble, the condition of the UN ground forces when the SPO ends, etc...
Mao's position regarding the Soviets will be changed to his own detriment. China going its own way will take perhaps quite a few years longer. IDK enough about Mao's political position in China at this time. None at all, really:eek: Kim OTOH will probably be left with training border crossing guerrillas while making radio speeches from Harbin as "Great Leader In His Great Redoubt".

BTW? China's losses in the whole of the Korean War were proportionally equal by national population to those of the United States in WWII. Not bad? It was a foreign war of choice (see Iraq), not a civil war/revolution (See KMT vs. CCP), nor a war against a genocidal invader (see Imperial Japan).

It'll make 1952 a very interesting year, to say the least...
Senator Tydings crushes Tail-gunner Joe:mad::):cool: in 1951.

Doug out Dougie's sins are forgotten until the founding of AlternateHistory.com:D.​

Mao's Great Leap Forward is delayed. His Cultural Revolution fails badly, leaving him with little power as his once allies now enemies wait for him to die.

Eisenhower is still elected, but he is strong and sure enough with a less fearful Cold War to name someone else as his VP (anyone come up with a name?)

Nixon stays in the Senate, dies as Senate President Pro Tempore:p

Only major change otherwise that I can see is Vietnam going from a quagmire to a black hole.

Any other ideas?
 
TKeep him alive, but allow him to bomb the Yalu River bridges and that gets you halfway to your goal.

The bridges were bombed. The US Air Force records a number of missions conducted against them but I've never seen any evidence they achieved all that much. In particular during the time of the Chinese intervention, in the winter of 1950-51, the river was frozen and the bridges were superfluous.

In reality, you have to get rid of MacArthur because only then can you get rid of the two reasons for the disaster: MacArthur's atrocious underestimation of the Chinese and the mass of dead wood among the 8th Army's officer corps. A comparison between the 8th Army and the Marines makes it clear that these are why the former got mauled while the latter managed to conduct an orderly fighting withdrawal. On the first issue Marine General Oliver Smith, unlike MacArthur, did correctly interpret the threat and reacted accordingly: slowing the advance of 1st Marine Division, establishing strong points, and preparing for contingencies. That's why the Marines were even at Chosin. Secondly, the officers in the 8th Army had forgotten many basic soldier skills that the marines had not. Rudimentary skills like maintaining a tight perimeter at night, constructing mutually supporting positions, and digging in when halted for any length of time.

Which is why the Chinese were able to consistently infiltrate and overrun scattered and exposed US Army units, but were unable to do the same to the Marines. Then when Ridgeway took over, he purged 2/3rds of the officer ranks of the 8th Army as unfit for command. Once Ridgeway's reforms took hold the US Army hammered the Chinese and could well have driven them back to Pyongyang if the Joint Chiefs hadn't grossly overestimated the size of the Chinese forces (a blunder that came about as the US strategists never grasped the Chinese way of war through the entire conflict and thus could think of no other way for poorly armed light infantry to overrun mechanized troops save vast numerical superiority) and ordered them to dig in along the 38th instead.

Officially the PRC claimed they wouldn't have crossed the Yalu if only ROK forces entered into NK territory, but you can take that for whatever you think that's worth.
The Chinese have been rather open about their Korean War archives since Mao croaked, as part of divorcing themselves from his policies. The memos and recorded conversations retrieved kinda supports this. Specifically, the Chinese decided that if the Americans approached the Yalu they would attack. If the Americans stopped at or south of the Taedong River Valley, they would keep the PVA ready and training on the border but otherwise would just wait-and-see. If the US stopped at the 38th, they would not intervene.

BTW? China's losses in the whole of the Korean War were proportionally equal by national population to those of the United States in WWII.
Uh... what?

Chinese KIA in the Korean War: ~152,000
Chinese Population in 1950: ~554,000,000
Proportion of Population Lost: ~0.0002%

US KIA in WW2: ~403,000
US Population in 1945: ~139,900,000
Proportion of Population Lost: ~0.02%
 
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I get:

China in Korea - 0.0274%

US in WWII: 0.288%

You are correct in that the Chinese losses were proportionally smaller, but your calculator is fried.
 
This is Dougie we are talking about.:rolleyes:

True, but the history of man is often times built upon people doing something either unexpected or totally out of character.

All Mac needs is one seed of doubt, one inkling that the FPO is not the whole of the PRC's offensive operational plan on the Korean peninsula and that a second MUCH larger offensive is coming and he may very well do the unexpected/uncharacteristic and halt and dig in.

IDK. I can't see Stalin letting his minions (as he still thought Mao to be at this time) be so brutally trounced like this. And the Mig-15 does represent as much a game changer in Korea as the P-51 did in WWII USAAF strategic bombing.

From what I read, while Stalin requested PRC intervention, he refused to commit any Soviet forces to the effort. At the same time, while Mao and Zhou Enlai were eager to intervene, they were in the distinct minority among the CCP leadership in that opinion. Not only that, but the PLA wasn't eager for a war either. Lin Biao only got out of having to lead it by citing his 'poor health'. (Biao's go to for much of the decade to avoid assignment.)

So it fell to Peng Dehuai, one of the few marshals that wanted to go to war.

Had the SPO ended up a disaster for the PRC, Stalin (being Stalin) would have withheld the MiGs (and their pilots) either totally (if the SPO got utterly annihilated) or until he'd found a suitable ('competent' would have been the word he'd used) replacement for Mao and possibly also Zhou.

And THAT is where things will really start to get complicated.

Mao's position regarding the Soviets will be changed to his own detriment. China going its own way will take perhaps quite a few years longer. IDK enough about Mao's political position in China at this time. None at all, really:eek:.

Stalin, as mentioned above, would treat him like all other subordinates that 'failed him'. While I don't see a direct Soviet hit, I wouldn't put it past him to try and get someone from within China to get rid of Mao and Zhou.

There's where Stalin runs into a problem: Mao and Zhou were in the minority about getting involved directly in Korea.

The SPO fails- and fails badly -I think they're goners, the CCP not even waiting for Stalin to approach them about it.

Here's Stalin's problem though, a really BIG problem: Mao and Zhou pushed for the direct intervention at Stalin's behest. They bucked their fellows in the CCP to do it, and, if it fails badly, their fellows will look at the pair of them as Stalin's lackeys, rather than leaders of the Chinese people.

I think the CCP gets rid of Mao and Zhou on their own (making sure the failure of the SPO falls squarely on their shoulders, along with all the blame), but now, Stalin's got a new problem: A hostile CCP that blames not only Mao and Zhou for the intervention, but Stalin for pushing them for it.

When things succeed, everything looks different; mistakes are glossed over (or swept under the rug) because, even though there were mistakes, hey, we won anyway! When things fail (and fail badly) the guys who were against it in the first place are the ones who were right. The more people there were who were 'right', the worse it's going to be for the guys who were 'wrong'.

Expect Mao and Zhou to be eliminated quickly by the majority (the guys who were 'right') and the new leadership to make sure that, to discredit Mao and Zhou, they paint the two as 'lackeys for foreigners', the foreigners in this case being Stalin and the Soviets.

I think it makes for a potential Sino-Soviet Split right then and there.

Butterflies off would be huge.

Kim OTOH will probably be left with training border crossing guerrillas while making radio speeches from Harbin as "Great Leader In His Great Redoubt".

Possibly, unless the new leadership sees Kim as a liability and eliminates him as a step towards trying to normalize relations with the west. ("Look, we don't like the Soviets either, we got rid of Kim, we're all reasonable people here! We won't invade Korea, BUT, we need something in return. A good start would be recognition of our government as the legitimate government of China. Also, how about normalized relations?")

That, of course, depends on how smooth the transition of power goes in post-Mao China.

Maybe the casualties of the failed intervention are enough to cause the Chinese public to turn on Mao...if it's not, however, things could get REALLY ugly in mainland China...for a while.

If things get out of hand, you might see the CCP split (or even fracture), PLA officers either seize the initiative (and power) themselves, or, worst case scenario, they splinter too and it's a full blown civil war in China again, with factions of the CCP and PLA fighting each other and a whole lot of misery in China.

A complication for the U.S. in the event of a total PRC collapse: Chiang starts demanding massive U.S. support to help him 'return to power', and that ain't gonna happen...but it won't stop Chiang from bitching to the point where [insert PoTUS here] finally gets sick of his shit and has the CIA cultivate an alternative, after which they dispose of 'the irritant'.

BTW? China's losses in the whole of the Korean War were proportionally equal by national population to those of the United States in WWII. Not bad? It was a foreign war of choice (see Iraq), not a civil war/revolution (See KMT vs. CCP), nor a war against a genocidal invader (see Imperial Japan).

If the casualty counts end up substantially higher, as they would in the event of a failed SPO and no Soviet support, I can't imagine anybody in China being able to swallow it without somebody losing their job.

And by 'their job', I mean their lives.

Senator Tydings crushes Tail-gunner Joe:mad::):cool: in 1951.

Possible, perhaps likely. THAT will change things quite a bit.

Without McCarthyism, what will political illiterates accuse people who don't agree with them of?:confused::D

Doug out Dougie's sins are forgotten until the founding of AlternateHistory.com:D.

He'll have been the guy who beat Imperial Japan AND Red China in two wars roughly five years apart.

Remember what I said about 'when things succeed'...

Mao's Great Leap Forward is delayed. His Cultural Revolution fails badly, leaving him with little power as his once allies now enemies wait for him to die.

That assumes Mao survives so long.

Personally, I think he's a dead man if the SPO fails.

Eisenhower is still elected, but he is strong and sure enough with a less fearful Cold War to name someone else as his VP (anyone come up with a name?)

Ike in '52? Yes, still happens.

Less fearful Cold War? Possible, but if China falls back into a state of chaos and civil war, the world will see a level of scary in the Cold War we NEVER saw in OTL.

Different VP? Hard to say. If the fear is more external than internal, Ike probably taps someone with some foreign policy experience for Veep. Without a red scare and McCarthy and HUAC...I think Nixon doesn't end up with much of a political career and eventually returns to private practice as a lawyer, or, maybe he pursues his one true passion and gets involved in professional sports in some capacity; perhaps as a sports writer (Hunter S. Thompson hated the guy, but he did say Nixon was quite knowledgeable when it came to sports) or part of a baseball or football team ownership group, OR, my personal favorite AH claim to fame for Dick: President and Commissioner of the American Football League.:cool:

I think Nixon would have made a good commissioner of either the AFL, NFL, or, failing that, Major League Baseball.

Only major change otherwise that I can see is Vietnam going from a quagmire to a black hole.

Depends.

If the PRC fractures, Uncle Ho's going to have to find someone else to work with to get the French to leave.

Being that, above all else, the Viet Minh were a nationalist group, I think they'll take help from wherever they can get it and say whatever their benefactor wants to hear, if it'll get them the support needed to drive out the French.

If the Vietnamese nationalists can all stay on the same page, you don't end up with two Vietnams, you get one, and while there may still be a civil war, I don't think it'll be one that anybody will jump into the middle of; it'll be one that competing foreign interests fight by proxy.

Any other ideas?

In America, with a win in Korea, I think it goes a long way towards assuaging fears from the second red scare.

Without McCarthyism, an out of control HUAC and communism looking like a losing proposition, I think the New Right and New Left develop with greater focus on domestic issues within the U.S., but with the New Right becoming more libertarian, the New Left becoming less radicalized.

I like to think that, with a blunted second red scare, Truman wouldn't recognize the Batista regime after the '52 coup. Ike wouldn't have backed the 1954 coup in Guatemala. MAYBE the U.S. doesn't get involved in Boot/TPAJAX (Admittedly, that might be stretching it, but my God, if a win in Korea could blunt it by keeping the U.S. out of it, or butterfly it away completely, by Britain canceling it for lack of U.S. support, the world would be a better place for it.).

Best case scenario (at least with Cuba), perhaps the U.S. not only doesn't recognize Batista's regime as legitimate, the U.S. government's big covert operation of the 50's is training, equipping and advising/assisting pro-U.S., anti-Soviet revolutionaries in Cuba. Ernie Guevera will need to be eliminated, but I think the Castro brothers will adopt whatever ideology gets them an army to remove Batista. I mean, just how 'socialist' are a couple of guys who horde the lion's share of their country's national treasury in their own bank accounts?

A whole lot of what the world looks like going forward after a U.N. victory in Korea that eliminates N. Korea completely and causes the PRC to split with the Soviets and possibly even fracture/implode depends on a lot of variables.

A whole LOT of variables.

There's one thing I know about China though: The solutions to their problems will be Chinese solutions, not Western or Eastern Bloc solutions.

If nothing else, that's one lesson history has taught me very well.

Personally, I kinda like the idea of China going technocratic in the sense of becoming a genuine Technocracy...

That could make the 20th century (and beyond) very interesting.:cool:
 
Lots of interesting butterflies being discussed. I have nothing to add, other than I will see what more folks may contribute.
 
The Chinese have been rather open about their Korean War archives since Mao croaked, as part of divorcing themselves from his policies. The memos and recorded conversations retrieved kinda supports this. Specifically, the Chinese decided that if the Americans approached the Yalu they would attack. If the Americans stopped at or south of the Taedong River Valley, they would keep the PVA ready and training on the border but otherwise would just wait-and-see. If the US stopped at the 38th, they would not intervene.

Wasn't the reasoning on the US side at the time that if it was American forces that approached the border the Chinese would believe that they were under control and would not cross the border. But if it was Korean forces at the border the Chinese could beieve that they might cross and hence would pre-emptively attack.
I.e. completely opposed perceptions of each other.
 
Uh... what?

Chinese KIA in the Korean War: ~152,000
Chinese Population in 1950: ~554,000,000
Proportion of Population Lost: ~0.0002%

US KIA in WW2: ~403,000
US Population in 1945: ~139,900,000
Proportion of Population Lost: ~0.02%

I get:

China in Korea - 0.0274%

US in WWII: 0.288%

You are correct in that the Chinese losses were proportionally smaller, but your calculator is fried.

Yeah, turns out my source had Chinese losses at one million plus, but it was an old source.:( Are you counting for the US casualties suffered by the Philippine Army, guerrillas, and scouts?:confused:
 
That scenario is different, as it starts with Dougout Dougie's death.

Keep him alive, but allow him to bomb the Yalu River bridges and that gets you halfway to your goal.

Officially the PRC claimed they wouldn't have crossed the Yalu if only ROK forces entered into NK territory, but you can take that for whatever you think that's worth.:rolleyes:

China will always enjoy good LOCs up to the Korean border itself. But then the thorny (or downright nasty) issue of safe zones come into play. With the military combat lines closing up to the Yalu, where do air operations become forbidden? Its inevitable using 40s era military tech that navigational mistakes will be made. Not only will Dougie be demanding that strikes be made into Manchuria (whatever his insane political ideas for Chiang), but the dangers of hitting targets around the very nearby Soviet city of Vladivostok become not just very real but it almost certainly will become a routine occurrence. WWIII:eek:

At least with better tech and the nature of the geography the US was in little danger of hitting the Chinese mainland in the Vietnam War, but getting both China and the USSR involved in the fighting head on should there be sustained fighting at or near the Yalu is almost inevitable, meaning a full on conflagration on the ground.

This is Dougie we are talking about.:rolleyes:

IDK. I can't see Stalin letting his minions (as he still thought Mao to be at this time) be so brutally trounced like this. And the Mig-15 does represent as much a game changer in Korea as the P-51 did in WWII USAAF strategic bombing.

Mao's position regarding the Soviets will be changed to his own detriment. China going its own way will take perhaps quite a few years longer. IDK enough about Mao's political position in China at this time. None at all, really:eek: Kim OTOH will probably be left with training border crossing guerrillas while making radio speeches from Harbin as "Great Leader In His Great Redoubt".

BTW? China's losses in the whole of the Korean War were proportionally equal by national population to those of the United States in WWII. Not bad? It was a foreign war of choice (see Iraq), not a civil war/revolution (See KMT vs. CCP), nor a war against a genocidal invader (see Imperial Japan).

Senator Tydings crushes Tail-gunner Joe:mad::):cool: in 1951.

Doug out Dougie's sins are forgotten until the founding of AlternateHistory.com:D.​

Mao's Great Leap Forward is delayed. His Cultural Revolution fails badly, leaving him with little power as his once allies now enemies wait for him to die.

Eisenhower is still elected, but he is strong and sure enough with a less fearful Cold War to name someone else as his VP (anyone come up with a name?)

Nixon stays in the Senate, dies as Senate President Pro Tempore:p

Only major change otherwise that I can see is Vietnam going from a quagmire to a black hole.

Any other ideas?

Sakura_F wrote a pretty good timeline similar to this about Communist troops underperforming.

PURGE MAO PLZ!!

I know we know how bad he was, but seriously, it would be the ideal outcome (as long as the chairmanship doesn't go to Jiang Qing).
 
Getting Mao purged and China imploding could be a good thing. Could the turmoil carry over to Stalin losing face or even getting purged himself?
 
Wasn't the problem that Truman forbid Mac from destroying the Bridges on the Chinese side? IIRC Mac was expecting to be able to destroy ALL the Yalu river Bridges to stop any Chinese intervention which given the weather at that time actually would've fucked that up badly. We might give Mac a lot of grief but this one wasn't his fault.
 
Wasn't the problem that Truman forbid Mac from destroying the Bridges on the Chinese side? IIRC Mac was expecting to be able to destroy ALL the Yalu river Bridges to stop any Chinese intervention which given the weather at that time actually would've fucked that up badly. We might give Mac a lot of grief but this one wasn't his fault.

Apparently that was a myth put forth by the Gregory Peck film "MacArthur". According to ObsessedNuker, the Yalu River was frozen solid by the time of the intervention, and would have required them being blitzed BEFORE the Chinese invaded. Bombing the bridges too early justified Chinese Intervention, however, as some of that ordnance will be landing on Chinese soil.
 
Apparently that was a myth put forth by the Gregory Peck film "MacArthur". According to ObsessedNuker, the Yalu River was frozen solid by the time of the intervention, and would have required them being blitzed BEFORE the Chinese invaded. Bombing the bridges too early justified Chinese Intervention, however, as some of that ordnance will be landing on Chinese soil.

Being frozen solid doesn't automatically make it safe. How thick does the ice normally get on it? If it's not thick enough to support fully loaded supply trucks then bombing the bridges still helps Mac
Majorly against he Chinese.
 
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