MacArthur Assassinated - 1932

Driftless

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MacArthur Assassinated or Sacked - 1932

During the summer of 1932, a large body of un-employed World War One US military veterans marched on Washington DC to demand that the government advance the time of cash payment of a $1,000 service bonus from 1945 to 1932 - they needed the money during the Great Depression for basic sustainence. There were 17,000 veterans plus several thousand more family members and others involved.

The "Bonus Army" was viewed by some local and national leaders as a threat - potential communist overthrow, etc; and the situation got out of hand quickly and escalated to the police shooting and killing two marchers, and then President Hoover called in the Army to restore order.

General's MacArthur and Patton were directly involved in the routing out of the marchers from their camps, including the use of cavalry and even some tanks. Several people were injured, and the ham-fisted handling of the situation became a political firestorm.

During the military operation, Major Dwight D. Eisenhower, later the 34th president of the United States, served as one of MacArthur's junior aides. Believing it wrong for the Army's highest-ranking officer to lead an action against fellow American war veterans, he strongly advised MacArthur against taking any public role: "I told that dumb son-of-a-bitch not to go down there," he said later. "I told him it was no place for the Chief of Staff." Despite his misgivings, Eisenhower later wrote the Army's official incident report which endorsed MacArthur's conduct.

Regardless of your opinion of MacArthur, it would seem very possible during the heat of the struggle, that one of those Bonus Army members or family could have killed MacArthur during the fight, or perhaps shortly thereafter. *edit* Or, MacArthur gets completely discredited and sacked.

What happens over the next twenty years after that assassination?
1. Does that event alter Hoover's failed re-election vs FDR's first election?
2. Who replaces MacArthur as US Army Chief of Staff? Gen Malin Craig did in 1935 - does he get the nod in 1932?
3. Who becomes the Field Marshall of the Philippine Army in 1936, or does the role even get filled?
4. Who leads the US Army USAFFE, especially on Dec 8, 1941 - Wainright, Sutherland, or ????
5. Who assumes the larger command of the USAFFE in 1942?
6. Who becomes the "Ceasar" of Japan post-war (I realize that's really pushing the window of predictability)
 
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Another smaller effect might be that the infamous M1 Garand Rifle doesn't get adopted for widespread service in TTL as Mac was a big force behind it IIRC.

As for the rest of your questions...the answer could be any number of combinations. In reality I don't think there's one most plausible option here, but rather a series of plausible options.

In general however, I don't think Mac's death affects FDR's win in 1932 at all. Nor will it really affect the larger moves of both US or Philippine Armies in the 1930's, both of those institutions were bigger than just Mac.

What it will affect IMO is the defense of the Philippines. Lil 'Mac bungled that one pretty bad, and if Wainwright or someone else were in charge Bataan's going to be able to resist for a few more months at the very least and be able to throw a serious spanner in the Japanese' plans for taking and consolidating their gains in SE Asia.

I also think that Japan will turn out more or less like OTL. US military occupation may be a bit harsher in the period pre mid-1948, but the "reverse course" that laid the foundation for modern Japan was a product of bureaucracy not MacArthur.

Similarly given American naval and air superiority, an amphibious landing in any alt-Korean War is inevitable. It may not be at Inchon but it will happen nonetheless.
 

Driftless

Donor
*bump*

I added the possibility of MacArthur being completely discredited and sacked as a by-product of the Bonus Army situation.
 
Another smaller effect might be that the infamous M1 Garand Rifle doesn't get adopted for widespread service in TTL as Mac was a big force behind it IIRC.
The Garand was already de facto accepted by that point in time, what MacArthur did though was put his foot down on the .276 vs 30.06 debate and sided with 30.06 as the caliber the Garand was going to be in. The Garand is still likely to be chambered in 30.06 as like MacArthur his successor isn't going to have incentive to push a cartridge a significant portion of Ordinance doesn't want during the economic downturn that is the Great Depression.
 
Regardless of your opinion of MacArthur, it would seem very possible during the heat of the struggle, that one of those Bonus Army members or family could have killed MacArthur during the fight, or perhaps shortly thereafter. *edit* Or, MacArthur gets completely discredited and sacked.
You forgot the third option: The bullet misses but it still generates interest from the media. Bugout gets so engrossed in prancing up and down in front of the journalists he forgets to eat or drink and dies of dehydration about a week later.
:p
 
Lynching by crowd of veterans would be so much more satisfying than assassination by a lone hero. Even more satisfaction would be a court and hanging.
 

Driftless

Donor
The camp clearing was spun as preventing the Bonus Army from overthrowing the government. Two veterans & a 12 week old child died, and many others were injured. Many of the observers were government employees who worked right nearby - basically independent witnesses. It wouldn't be too much of a POD for that level of harm to have been worse, and public outrage to jump.

It was a PR fiasco, and if more harm was done, Mac probably gets sacked, and maybe Patton too? I think Eisenhower's assessment of the situation is kind of damning (I told that dumb Sonofabitch...), even though he eventually signed off on the report that exonerated the handling of the problem.
 
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