M2TW WI: Novgorodian Russia

One of the historical weaknesses of Medieval 2: Total War is that their "Russia" is actually the Republic of Novgorod with Kievan rulers tacked on, while Kievan Rus itself is brushed off. Can anyone think of a way that Novgorod could come to dominate Eastern Europe by the time the Mongols arrive?
 
Novgorod had an inherent weakness of not having reliable grain source within it's domain, therefore it's subordination to whoever was controlling central and southern part of the Russian plain is kinda predefined. But, if you want to be adventurous, one way to achieve Novgorod's supremacy would be making Southern trade (Kiev rose on racket of Slavic trade wuth Constantinople and Byzantine Empire in general) less profitable than Northern (Novgorod being main extortion point on that road). Novgorod have an advantage of potential control over Eastern route (through Volga) too. Therefore you'll need to create real mess out of Southern Europe around 800 AD (to make Southern trade unattractive and starve Kiev) and (ideally) somehow solve inherent problem of the Volga route being too susceptible to nomad attacks. Probably some form of alliance between Novgorod rulers and Khazars (who more or less controlled Volga at this point) to finish Kiev off would help...
 
the only way I can think of is the opposite outcome of the Battle of Shelon, but that is well after the POD, and not sure how it could survive pre-Mongol.
 
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