M-R Pact WI: Stalin Tries To Take The Turkish Straits

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Well, sure lots of butterflies if this happens between September 1939 and May 1940. Having said that, I don't see how this would change what happens in France - if anything this would draw more forces to the Middle Eastern area from the UK and France. It certainly would not change the political malaise in France or the doctrinal thinking that contributed to the fall of France. Given that Hitler would have been perfectly happy to pursue a campaign against the Soviet Union leaving France and Britain alone if they had done for Poland what they did for Czechoslovakia (ie: sell them out) I see no reason to expect Germany won't go east unless they have lost in France which is unlikely...
 
Well, sure lots of butterflies if this happens between September 1939 and May 1940. Having said that, I don't see how this would change what happens in France - if anything this would draw more forces to the Middle Eastern area from the UK and France. It certainly would not change the political malaise in France or the doctrinal thinking that contributed to the fall of France. Given that Hitler would have been perfectly happy to pursue a campaign against the Soviet Union leaving France and Britain alone if they had done for Poland what they did for Czechoslovakia (ie: sell them out) I see no reason to expect Germany won't go east unless they have lost in France which is unlikely...

I'm of the belief that the Fall of France was a very close encounter. You need only a few things to go different for the French to not get encircled in Belgium, thus opening the road to Paris.

Just blunt the sickle, and France doesn't fall. France not falling, in turn, means no German invasion of the Soviet Union.
 
British and French foreign policy had been for perhaps 100 years united in preventing Russian control of the straits. If the Russians make a move before Barbarossa, and once that starts they are far too busy to try it, I would expect the British and French to do everything they could diplomatically and militarily to aid the Turks and prevent Stalin from owning the straits. A Soviet attack to get the straits will poison the well in a way that their attack on Finland did not.

which would be dream scenario for Germany instead of the troublesome scenario of invasion of Finland? especially if they could engage Soviets in shooting war with Allies?
 
Well, anything that would reduce the western support for the USSR when Germany inevitably invaded would be a good thing for Germany. Even after the war started between Germany and France/UK Hitler still hoped he could somehow convince them to join in an anti-bolshevik crusade. IMHO it is not unlikely the USSR would give up any gains in Turkey/straits in order to get aid from UK/France when the German juggernaut hits.
 
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