Lyndon's Last Loss- LBJ levels Gene in NH

If LBJ wins the NH primary with over 60%, how does this affect the '68 race? IMO he can still steamroller the convention, but Nixon wipes the floor with him in November, and come '76...
 
If LBJ sweeps NH, then the anti-war movement has not progressed as in OTL. In that case, he is likely to be the favored incumbent in November. So, it is no guarantee for Nixon.

The actual POD is a set of events before the NH convention that lends more support for LBJ and the way he is handling the war.
 
I don't think LBJ could get more war support, because his plan was "bomb, S&D, pause, talk" repeated over four years. Nixon/Abrams had a plan somewhat like OTL Iraq. Possibly a narrow Nixon victory in '68 (270-285), but who do the Dems nominate in '72? Next round's somewhat easier...
 
If LBJ is stronger, might Nixon choose not to run? After all, he did decline to challenge LBJ in 1964, which resulted in a Landslide, and if it looks like Johnson is still a strong candidate, might nixon consider waiting another election cycle?

The non-presence of the anti-war movement raises several questions. Is the American presence in vietnam radically different or curtailed? Has the movement been simply delayed, or have it's demands been met in advance? Why it is not present will result in a radically different political climate.
 
LBJ had decided to retire in 1967: "No one knows but you and Bird" to P.S. George Christian, which explains the lackluster NH effort. If your scenario plays out, then we will have Nixon as the GOP candidate in 1972 and RFK vs. HHH for the Democratic nomination. In that case, the winner depends on the Dem outcome. HHH nom'd=Nixon win, RFK nom'd= toss-up (advantage Nixon). If Nixon wins, then we might get the fabled RFK vs. Reagan in 1980.
 
There are two scenarios which I'll briefly outline:

A) Ho accepts LBJ's Manila offer of 1966, which means phased withdrawal, and since SVN is undergoing a political transition between the Thieu-Ky junta to the semi-parliamentary one of OTL in 66-67, and without military benefits of Vietnamization or proper equipment, expect Saigon to fall by 1970 latest. Results: LBJ gets re-elected. If Nixon's smart he waits until 1972, otherwise he's finished for good. Now for 1972, there are two scenarios...

A1) HHH gets the nomination, and loses to Nixon or perhaps even Reagan. Nixon's presidency goes similar to OTL, probably without Watergate. RFK-Reagan in 1980. Depending on how Nixon performs with the economy, I'd say narrow RFK win and blowout in '84. I've outlined an RFK Presidency before.

A2) RFK gets the nomination and wins against Nixon. Nixon is finished, the war is lost already, and we see a domestic focus with detente to the USSR, perhaps PRC as well.

B) LBJ fights the war properly, resulting in an increased antiwar movement. Tet is successfully portrayed as the major military victory it was. Using the toolkit of incumbency, HHH wins the '68 nomination, losing to Nixon, where Watergate is covered up successfully (no tape on the door and bugs work) and either RFK-Connally or RFK-Reagan in '76.



 
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