Luzon and Cuba As American protectorates

What would be the consequences of the Spanish and Americans agreeing to have Luzon(Tagalog Republic) and Cuba as American protectorates and the Americans getting the Pacific territories while the Spanish retain their other territories which are Visayas, Mindanao and Puerto Rico instead of choosing annexation for the Philippines, For this situation to be workable you need to replace Aguinaldo before the end of the Spanish-American War.

The Tagalog Republic and Americans would have similar policies with their Spanish and Chinese affiliated populations as the Tagalog Republic would have their Chinese and Spanish affiliated populations expelled like what the Americans did to the Hispanics and Chinese, in this case the Germans will get Palawan and Mindanao which will end up British if the WWI is not butterflied.

Any Ideas how would this situation lead up to, how would be the relations of Spanish Visayas and Spanish Puerto Rico in this case.
 
Last edited:
What would be the consequences of the Spanish and Americans agreeing to have Luzon(Tagalog Republic) and Cuba as American protectorates and the Americans getting the Pacific territories while the Spanish retain their other territories which are Visayas, Mindanao and Puerto Rico instead of choosing annexation for the Philippines, For this situation to be workable you need to replace Aguinaldo before the end of the Spanish-American War.

The Tagalog Republic and Americans would have similar policies with their Spanish and Chinese affiliated populations as the Tagalog Republic would have their Chinese and Spanish affiliated populations expelled like what the Americans did to the Hispanics and Chinese, in this case the Germans will get Palawan and Mindanao which will end up British if the WWI is not butterflied.

Any Ideas how would this situation lead up to, how would be the relations of Spanish Visayas and Spanish Puerto Rico in this case.

There might be... interest in Spanish Ruled Visayas by the Tagalog Republic. Merely for nationalistic/anti-imperialist reasons. Whether it be successful is debatable. Spain however will sell their remaining outposts in the East Indies. The risk of losing more is likely and potential buyers are there (Germans).

I don't really know the religious situation of Mindanao but if it is between 30-70/70-20 (Islamic-Catholic) then the region may face religious warfare.

Puerto Rico might remain Spanish up this day. It will be better off than OTL what I expect.
 
There might be... interest in Spanish Ruled Visayas by the Tagalog Republic. Merely for nationalistic/anti-imperialist reasons. Whether it be successful is debatable. Spain however will sell their remaining outposts in the East Indies. The risk of losing more is likely and potential buyers are there (Germans).

I don't really know the religious situation of Mindanao but if it is between 30-70/70-20 (Islamic-Catholic) then the region may face religious warfare.

Puerto Rico might remain Spanish up this day. It will be better off than OTL what I expect.
True, however the Americans would be committed to maintain the treaty.

However, an agreement for Luzon and Cuba to be protectorates of the Americans instead of a war of the Spanish with the Americans is more possible if Aguinaldo is killed by the Magdiwang faction due to being outed as a traitor and the Spanish lose control over Luzon completely, I would argue that the Spanish seemingly weakening the revolt in the Philippines is what have caused the Spanish to make a war against the Americans instead of creating a settlement with the Americans.
 
Last edited:

Deleted member 109224

If Spain keeps Visayas and Mindanao, it's going to lose Western Visayas (which were already pretty much independent) and sell the remainder to Germany. Unless the US proclaims the West Visayas Federation to be another of its protectorates, it will probably end up conquered by the Germans in a messy fashion.

Come WWI, Japan will seize the German Philippines.

I wonder if having Mindanao and Visayas would result in Japan not invading Manchuria. The Navy would be a stronger force politically and there'd likely be much investment and settlement directed there.
 

Deleted member 109224

This was the hypothetical division of the Philippines I pitched in another thread.

1) The Tagalog Republic (American Protectorate)
2) West Visayas Federation
3) Palawan, Mindanao, and Sulu (Spanish, later German, even later Japanese).

Considering how Davao attracted a lot of Japanese immigration OTL, it'd be a pretty natural colony for Japan.

upload_2019-2-7_13-25-52-png.438778
 
If Spain keeps Visayas and Mindanao, it's going to lose Western Visayas (which were already pretty much independent) and sell the remainder to Germany. Unless the US proclaims the West Visayas Federation to be another of its protectorates, it will probably end up conquered by the Germans in a messy fashion.

Come WWI, Japan will seize the German Philippines.

I wonder if having Mindanao and Visayas would result in Japan not invading Manchuria. The Navy would be a stronger force politically and there'd likely be much investment and settlement directed there.

This was the hypothetical division of the Philippines I pitched in another thread.

1) The Tagalog Republic (American Protectorate)
2) West Visayas Federation
3) Palawan, Mindanao, and Sulu (Spanish, later German, even later Japanese).

Considering how Davao attracted a lot of Japanese immigration OTL, it'd be a pretty natural colony for Japan.

upload_2019-2-7_13-25-52-png.438778


These are the Variations of this scenario

1.The Katipunan gets rid of Aguinaldo as a traitor which causes the Spanish to lose completely their rule of Luzon which results in Spain getting rid of Luzon(Tagalog Republic) and Cuba as temporary protectorates for America instead of a war with the Americans.
2.The Americans get rid of Aguinaldo and the Magdiwang Faction remains united which results in the Tagalog Republic as an American Protectorate after the War along with Cuba.


I think America will grant these two independence sooner because parts of the America's interests are with Mindanao but Tagalog Republic will remain close to the Americans because of Common interests and the Tagalog Republic will be not be Pro-Chinese as the OTL Philippines.
 
This was the hypothetical division of the Philippines I pitched in another thread.

1) The Tagalog Republic (American Protectorate)
2) West Visayas Federation
3) Palawan, Mindanao, and Sulu (Spanish, later German, even later Japanese).

Considering how Davao attracted a lot of Japanese immigration OTL, it'd be a pretty natural colony for Japan.

upload_2019-2-7_13-25-52-png.438778
In that case, could there be a possibility of Mindanao, Palawan, and Sulu joining Malaysia? It's not far from Sabah and Sarawak.
 
Last edited:
In that case, could there be a possibility of Mindanao, Palawan, and Sulu joining Malaysia? It's not far from Sabah and Sarawak.

Brunei borders Sabah and Sarawak. Is there any probability of it joining Malaysia?

I highly doubt Mindanao would join Malaysia. Palawan and Sulu joining would cost Mindanao its EEZ and fishing rights. It's not joining Indonesia either. Indonesia couldn't incorporate East Timor. How is it supposed to handle a region many times the size of something that gave it so much trouble?
 

Deleted member 109224

1939 TTL?

Japanese Mindanao-Sulu-Palawan
US protectorate Tagalog Republic
West Visayas buffer in between.

I'm not sure if Japan would invade China if it has Mindanao, but I also don't see why the Japanese wouldn't.

upload_2019-4-30_13-21-5.png
 
I think Luzon/Tagalog Republic would expel the Chinese and Spanish affiliated populations - IOTL they hated both the Spanish and Chinese, however the Visayas and Mindanao would retain Spanish as official language and welcome the Chinese.
 
Top