Luxembourg + Colonies for Hainaut and Namur

During the Luxembourg Crisis, Napoleon III proposed exchanging Luxembourg for Belgian Territory. Leopold II said no.

What if France had offered not only Luxembourg but also Cochinchina (which they offered to Prussia in 1870, thus it would likely have been deemed expendable) and French Guiana?

In exchange, France gains Hainaut, Namur, Ypres, and Nieuwpoort.

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That is, if one can even consider "Belgian" as a coherent ethnicity.

I'm not - I'd be considering it a nationality.

But Belgium would be losing more core territory, in order to mess up the ethnic makeup even more, for additional colonies? And, while I'm unsure, I'd bet those are some of Belgium's most productive regions (and coal mines) as well.
 
Seems like Belgium would soon start running out of Belgians at this rate.

Those two provinces have about 2 million people today, out of an overall population of 11.5 million.
Meanwhile they gain Luxembourg, which has a population of around 0.6 million.

On net, Belgium is ~13% smaller in population.
 
Those two provinces have about 2 million people today, out of an overall population of 11.5 million.
Meanwhile they gain Luxembourg, which has a population of around 0.6 million.

On net, Belgium is ~13% smaller in population.

It's not just population. The Walloon provinces were some of the most industrialized part of the country (and of Europe for that matter). Three of the 4 Belgian coal mines are in the region, as well as the largest industrial zone.

Belgium_resources_1968.jpg


It's not merely that population loss, but the gutting of that economic backbone that made Belgium so successful. All they have left is Liege and surrounding areas. In exchange, they get Luxembourg, a province that is part German (upsetting existing ethnic balance) and not integrated into the Belgian economy.

For comparison, that'd be the same as France offering to buy the Rhine River Valley from Germany for all of Indochina, but in exchange they can have Friesland and Gelre from the Netherlands. It's a small net change in population by percentage, and the Germans still have the population to the East, but it's still a very, very bum deal for Belgium.
 
It's not just population. The Walloon provinces were some of the most industrialized part of the country (and of Europe for that matter). Three of the 4 Belgian coal mines are in the region, as well as the largest industrial zone.

Belgium_resources_1968.jpg


It's not merely that population loss, but the gutting of that economic backbone that made Belgium so successful. All they have left is Liege and surrounding areas. In exchange, they get Luxembourg, a province that is part German (upsetting existing ethnic balance) and not integrated into the Belgian economy.

For comparison, that'd be the same as France offering to buy the Rhine River Valley from Germany for all of Indochina, but in exchange they can have Friesland and Gelre from the Netherlands. It's a small net change in population by percentage, and the Germans still have the population to the East, but it's still a very, very bum deal for Belgium.

So what territory might Belgium have parted ways with in exchange for Luxembourg?

Perhaps an undoing of the French losses of 1815?
 
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