I've been watching the Smithsonian documentary on the Lusitania and it got me wondering: what if the U-boat still fired, but the torpedo did not sink it? A shot from that distance, according to the documentary, had never hit. Anything could have gone awry in the shot. What would have happened if the torpedo hit the boat, but it manages to reach the Irish coast before sinking?
Lusitania Doesn't Sink
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As I understand it the fact the the liner sank was a fluke. There seems to have been a particular combination of coal dust and air such as to cause an explosion.
The more likely outcome is that the ship would be slightly damaged
The more likely outcome is that the ship would be slightly damaged
BlondieBC
Banned
They key is the number of dead, particularly the number of American dead. You can get an answer from nothing much changes (ships still has large loss of life) to it not that well remembered (ship is run a ground on some mud bank, no loss of civilian life). Just think of it this way, off the top of your head, can you list all ships sunk pre-April 1917 that had American civilians on board?
Admiral Beez
Banned
If all the follow-up torpedoes don't work, wouldn't the U-Boat have surfaced and finished the ship off with the deck gun?
I only know offhand of three others. The Arabic was sunk in August 1915, with 50 dead including two Americans. The Sussex was sunk in March 1916, with 80 casualties including two Americans wounded. The Laconia was sunk in Feb 1917 with three Americans killed (two of them women who happened to be friends of the First Lady).
The Lusitania was in a totally different class, with about 1100 dead including 128 Americans, and it was this more than anything which triggered President Wilson's string of notes to Berlin. $64,000 question is what happens if the Lusitania's death toll had been similar to those later ones. Obviously even two dead Americans is, in principle, two too many, but one wonders if that would have had the same impact as the wholesale "massacre" on the Lusitania. Would Wilson have reacted so strongly in such a case?
Let's just say that would be a very difficult task to accomplish for a U-Boat.
Lusitania was carrying war materiel for germany's enemies under the guise of neutrality.
It deserved to be sunk.
It deserved to be sunk.
Would the what 4" gun have done enough damage to finish off the ship?
It's a pity the RN have damaged her so badly post sinking, makes the scale of the original damage difficult to judge.
BlondieBC
Banned
I think so, if we assume the Lusitania is moving at a slow speed due to taking on water. The sub would shoot the ship at the water line multiple times. You could also shoot the rudder, so the ship can't steer.
Would the U boat risk it being so close (relatively) to Cobh and the base? If there was a U Boat on the service attacking perhaps the Juno would have continued on to the ship instead of being ordered back to Cobh which perhaps would have changed the loss of life?
BlondieBC
Banned
Depends on the commander, and his aggressiveness level. It is important to remember that the ASW technology of WW2 did not exist in 1915. Once a sub submerged, it was largely invulnerable. There are stories of British warships being able to see a submerged sub, but not being able to hurt it.
But still an important change from OTL, as it is likely to take quite a bit longer and probably won't cause the coal dust explosion (did any sinking with gunfire ever do that?), so there'll be time to take to the boats, and probably far fewer casualties.
What I am thinking was if the first torpedo misses, the Lusitania gets only a few miles from the shore, a second torpedo mildly damages the ship, and she makes it onto the shore with obvious signs of damage from a U-boat, but still very much operational, with no American deaths. What does this change?
Sorry to disappoint but barring the totally foreseeable it would change nothing
Deserved might be a little strong. Especially considering all the civilians aboard.
Legitimate target to be sure.
Maybe not even that, the American's will just find a different rallying cry, the American's just had too much invested in allied success
Kind of a distinction without a difference isn't it?
They'd still find the same rallying cry, assuming the Germans still began attacking US merchantmen. That would have caused war even if the Lusitania had never existed.
All loans to the Entente as of April 11917 were secured on investments in North America, so the lenders wouldn't have lost their money whatever the war's outcome.
In any case it's irrelevant as at that point neither Wilson nor almost anyone else was expecting a German victory - not even the Germans themselves, which was why the took a gamble on unrestricted U-boat warfare.