Looked several threads on what if scenarios of Czechoslovakia crisis in 1938 and it seems that consensus is this would be a quick campaign due no fortifications on the border with Austria (not true, but leave this out), too many Germans as their own citizens (questionable, leave it out either) and that Luftwaffe would provide soon a total air superiority and blitzkrieg would have its first fine moment.
I wonder if Luftwaffe was able to do that in fall 1938. I guess not. Here are my reasons :
- weather was really bad, limiting the days of operation
- units were not complete. Most of the troops were far from 100%, some close to 50% and level of training was not that great (there was no mandatory service until recently). Czech pilots, in relatively comparative numbers, had much higher level of training, although their strategy was not up to date.
- lots of LW pilots (with experience) were in Spain in 1938, and new strategy was only introduced recently (4 planes formation). Spanish war might turn the tide if Legion condor was forced to return to Germany in 1938.
- while Bf-109 was much more modern compared to Asia B-534 biplane, it was underpowered compared to B-534 so it lacked in maneuverability and climbing. The results of Zurich competition in 1937 seen Bf-109 to dominate, but the margin in speed was not that big.
- There was just about 500 Bf-109 available compared to 350 B-534, and second tier fighters (Arado 68 and Heinkel 51) still in the first line troops, were inferior to B-534
- New airplanes (not just Bf-109, but bombers as well) were new and lacked parts, spare parts, trained technicians, logistics, so the number of operational planes would be down soon. Czechs were in much better shape concerning the spare parts etc.
- It is reported that LW had only 100 tons of bombs in 10/1938. There would be no huge bombing offensive, even if they never lost much of their planes. Czechs had enough supplies.
- LW has a limited supply of petrol. No chance to survive the winter operational, if the war dragged that far. In fact, the entire economy would collapse, as Germany had no chance to buy stuff abroad (no money).
- dogfights would be mostly over Czech teritory, so any casualties on the LW side would mostly mean MIA/POW, while chance for the czech pilots to return would be much higher.
- there were numerous meadow airfields where Czech planes were quite well hidden, so the destruction on the ground via single massive attack ala Poland or Russia was not that likely.
- Czech light bombers (SB-2/Avia B-72) were quite efficient, would LW be able to stop them to do bombing raids? What if traffic hubs such as Linz gets destroyed, how this would affect already problematic Wehrmachct logistic?
- Would it be possible for Czech government to buy fighters abroad (I-16, probably not Hurricanes or anything similar)?
Looking to hear the arguments if these points are reasonable or not.