I read that Axis History thread before putting this up, it quickly goes of track and outside the timeframe Id consider relevent anyway. What it does say is that after a false start about 20 aircraft on strength claimed 125 bombers downed and many more damaged for 55 losses in 10 months. Certainly not all of these losses were to enemy action, in 1940 11 of the 21 losses were enemy action, so possibly the 1941 exchange rate was 4:1. The talk about later operations is moot in my mind because the technologial edge was well and truly with the Allies by 1943, it was far more even in early 1942.
The scenario Id suggest is that NJG2 gets sent to the Med in Oct 1941 but then sent back to NW Europe in about April 1942 and the battle actually fought during the 3 thousand bomber raids of May/June 1942. This is before the Mosquito was introduced into frontline service, the Beaufighter with metre wave radar was the RAFs main night fighter.
The 1000 bomber raids were padded out with OCU groups and other cats and dogs to make up the numbers and had a lot of older bombers and less expereinced crews. I think theyd be more vulnerable to being attacked over their own bases as they returned home, and the confusuion and disruption would cause as many or more losses as the guns themselves. It would take the RAF a few goes to get the measure of these raids, but by then the damage would have been done. I think for the amount of effort it would cost for the Luftwaffe it would give them the initiative for a little while and force the RAF to react for a change.