Luftwaffe heavy bombers in 1940

Deleted member 1487

Now that is a worrying thought...
Provided you have the viable design in 1940 it would have been very helpful for the BoB or any campaign, as it combines the missions or replaces the Do 17/217, Fw200, He177, eventually He111, and Ju290. If they had also made the Fw187 to escort this bomber then they'd have a serious combination, though not like the P-51 and B17/24. They'd still need a drop tank Bf109 (or really better a drop tank early Fw190). Even then they couldn't 'win' the BoB IMHO and it was the wrong strategy to take given that Sealion was non-viable. Goering saw it as a bluff of sorts, as he thought if the RAF could be defeated the British would negotiate before any Sealion type mission could be launched. A strategic bomber with capabilities like the B17 in terms of armor and defensive firepower in a bomber box would have been an extremely formidable opponent when backed up with a decent escort fighter like the Fw187, because it would have been able to handle the MG equipped SE fighters, while the escorts could focus on cannon armed twin engine fighters.
 
COAL!

Germany produced 36 million barrels of synthetic coal in 1943. Therefore they need to find enough UNICORN POOP to produce fifty four million barrels - I repeat FIFTY FOUR MILLION BARRELS - I suggest that we really should make people read posts properly and pass a basic arithmetic test before people start criticising.

Also the Germans wouldn't have made a plan to be producing 88 million barrels of synthetic oil by 1943 if they didn't have enough coal to make it from.

Ah yes, coal. The coal that they were so short of with the OTL synthetic program that they had to cut steel production. So the obvious solution is to use yet MORE coal to make synthetic fuel, right? :p
 

Deleted member 1487

Were the problems with the Uralbombers avoidable? I.e. was it due to some stuip requirement by the RLM or Luftwaffe or did the design team have a clever idea that didn't work?
Yes, but were they with the engineering understanding of that period? I don't know. They had to work around weak engines, which compromised the designs; with such weak engines they required massive wings to generate enough lift to fly, but then created a lot of drag and wasted weight. If say ordered to a spec with a potential high powered development, say a planned DB600/1 with 1000hp for take off they could have probably gotten a better design out of the original spec, but still not as good as later designs due to more limited aerodynamic understanding compared to 1936 or later (bomber A). So with the understanding they'd be working with better engines not yet available they could have gotten something better, but its unclear if they could yet design something worthwhile enough.

If they could have they could have had it by 1940.

Junkers might have time to do a Ju289 if it hadn't had to do the Ju288 to the Bomber B requirement. However, if Wever hadn't died, Milch had more power and/or Udet wasn't in authority the DB603 engine might not have been delayed and Heinkel might have been able to change the He177 into the He277 earlier so the Ju289 wouldn't be need.
No, it would have ended up in the same boat as the He177: too later to matter. The Ju288 was viable had Milch not gotten into a pissing match with Koppenberg at Junkers and developed the engine and aircraft to death to break his rival's hold on production. Of course that never would have even started had Udet not come into the picture upon Wever's death, so the Ju288 might have become a viable aircraft IOTL without Udet. The He277 wasn't a four engined He177, that was the He177B; the 277 was the Atlantic bomber and a whole story in itself. If the DB603 didn't get cancelled it would likely have power the He177B that Heinkel wanted earlier, if at a working Ural Bomber IF we are presupposing they have a viable design.

If Focke-Wulf didn't have to do the Fw200 they could have put the effort saved into developing the Fw191, but as that didn't go into production either the Luftwaffe would have been better off improving the Fw190.
They did the 200 because of the Japanese asking for a militarized version of the civilian airliner. The Germans inherited it when the war started and opted to use it because it was what was available. A working Uralbomber probably would have preempted it.

The 191 was a later development and a mess. It was never viable IMHO.

I wanted to substitute the Uralbomber because I wanted to get a long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft in large scale service by the middle of 1940. Ideally I would like it to be the He277. However, Bomber A was started in 1936 and the British heavy bombers started at the same dime didn't come into service until the end of 1940, so I think getting the He277 into service at the end of 1939 and having 3 MR groups operational by June 1940 isn't possible.
Read my thread about the Do19 I did for just that reason.


I didn't read the links about the He116, but if it could do the job it would be an extra type in large-scale production. Another reason why I cut out the Fw200 is to reduce the numbers of types in production to facilitate mass production. Ideally if with some jiggery pokery either the Do19 or Ju89 could spawn a family of useful combat aircraft I only want one of them to go into production.
And they would only have one design in production of the Ural Bomber worked out. The 116 was kind of like a four engine 111.
 

Deleted member 1487

Ah yes, coal. The coal that they were so short of with the OTL synthetic program that they had to cut steel production. So the obvious solution is to use yet MORE coal to make synthetic fuel, right? :p
Steel production stagnated not due to lack of coal, rather strategic bombing in 1943 by the RAF and later USAAF that continued and collapsed production of steel and transport of coal. Earlier before that problem manifested the synthetics program could have been kept to time tables with proper investments instead of things like the West Wall or Plan Z, or even just better management of the economy by someone other than Goering.
 

Deleted member 1487

Part of Germany's problem was the lack of development due to the ToV of both engines and military bombers, so they lacked experience with aircraft of this type; they caught up eventually, but by then it was too late.

What you'd need was the Do19's almost simultaneous contemporary, the Pe-8. This with DB601 and later 603 engines would have been pretty much the best Germany could hope for for 1940, though perhaps weighing less and slightly smaller to accept the less powerful engines until the 603s show up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petlyakov_Pe-8
http://www.airpages.ru/eng/ru/pe8.shtml
General characteristics

Performance

Armament


  • Guns:
  • Bombs: Up to 5,000 kg (11,000 lb)
pe-8.jpg
 
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No, it was a worse version of the Ju290. It was twice as heavy as the B17 or even He177 and never really worked that well.

You haven't really checked your figures, have you? It was slightly heavier, and lacked the American's turbo-charging. That's all.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
IIRC the Reich was only about 8% over subsistence on a technical level in coal in WW2, on average, and that's based on the idea of perfect distribution networks. In actuality they had shortages and so on.
So not much slack in the system.
 

Deleted member 1487

You haven't really checked your figures, have you? It was slightly heavier, and lacked the American's turbo-charging. That's all.
Yeah, you're right, I saw the lbs as kg.

IIRC the Reich was only about 8% over subsistence on a technical level in coal in WW2, on average, and that's based on the idea of perfect distribution networks. In actuality they had shortages and so on.
So not much slack in the system.
Where is that figure from? What is subsistence?
 
Then they have to find the extra oil. Germany did begin a huge expansion of its synthetic oil industry in 1936, only 40% of the planned capacity was in production by the end of 1942. The source I got this from said it was due to lack of labour and a shortage of steel. I believe that with better organisation of materials and labour German industrial production could have been moderately increased between the middle of 1937 and June 1940.

Wrong. You need special steel. Check the litterature on the process. You can not magically increase the supply not the specialist manpower. Give an explanation for that and reduce otehr productions at the same time.

Therefore I think Germany could have doubled its synthetic oil production to 9.6 million barrels in 1937 and 18.0 million barrels in 1938

"moderatly" becoming "twice more"

. After that production would steadily increase to 90 million barrels in 1943 instead of 36 million barrels.

thus your coal is going to be used to make oil and how will you power your industry without this coal? (don't forget that they were using 100% of the supply)

This thread turns into fantasy as people just dont understand a basic thing: logistics and economy.

You want more bombers so you need more steel so you need more oil so you need more people... And the fast is that you have to cut somewhere else. The second problem is that you can have men or steel but you need specific steel and trained men. You just need years to develop the industry to do that!

By the way French trained to fight those level bombers! Their AA was poor against low level bombers but for example Paris was incredibly well defended by 75mm AA and twin seaters. They were just expecting that!
 
So the massive excess of coal production is what led to things like critical coal shortages in the winter of 41, for example.

Less is more.
 

Deleted member 1487

So the massive excess of coal production is what led to things like critical coal shortages in the winter of 41, for example.

Less is more.
Got a source on that? If Tooze, what page? And did that factor in the coal coming in after 1941 from the Don Basin?

Tooze, and subsistence being requirements == output. (Excess is requirements < output, and dearth is requirements > output).
Got a page number? My point about subsistence was that they were already exporting coal to Italy and their allies, plus using it to make oil and rubber. So the issue is what is subsistence and at what point if their synthetic rubber and oil output rose until 1944 bombing that collapsed it if their coal remained at 8% above subsistence?
 
funny that you use a wiki link where it is writen "the german opeation failed" and you don't even notice it
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Got a source on that? If Tooze, what page? And did that factor in the coal coming in after 1941 from the Don Basin?


Got a page number? My point about subsistence was that they were already exporting coal to Italy and their allies, plus using it to make oil and rubber. So the issue is what is subsistence and at what point if their synthetic rubber and oil output rose until 1944 bombing that collapsed it if their coal remained at 8% above subsistence?

Would Kindle location do?
I'm kind of at work...
 

Deleted member 1487

funny that you use a wiki link where it is writen "the german opeation failed" and you don't even notice it
In their goals sure, but in terms of French AAA, which claimed was so effective at shooting down level bombers by design, it was horribly ineffective at doing so. I'm not claiming that that operation on the Germans side was effective, rather the French were ineffective at shooting down German bombers as you claimed they were prepared for.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Got a source on that? If Tooze, what page? And did that factor in the coal coming in after 1941 from the Don Basin?


Got a page number? My point about subsistence was that they were already exporting coal to Italy and their allies, plus using it to make oil and rubber. So the issue is what is subsistence and at what point if their synthetic rubber and oil output rose until 1944 bombing that collapsed it if their coal remained at 8% above subsistence?

Ah, there we go.
Right up until the invasion of the USSR, the German coal situation was really precarious - in fact, it was in deficit.
Around page 413 of 800.
This is largely because Britain was a major coal exporter to Europe pre-war, and unaccountably stopped doing it!

Page 573 on covers how the steel industry was seriously constrained by coal issues in late 1942.
 

Deleted member 1487

Ah, there we go.
Right up until the invasion of the USSR, the German coal situation was really precarious - in fact, it was in deficit.
Around page 413 of 800.
This is largely because Britain was a major coal exporter to Europe pre-war, and unaccountably stopped doing it!

Page 573 on covers how the steel industry was seriously constrained by coal issues in late 1942.
I started looking through my copy too, it would seem you're right; however in terms of effecting the ability to employ a heavy bomber in 1940-41 that doesn't really matter, what it does effect is what happens going forward. However I'm surprised Ukrainian coal didn't make up for some of the loss. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_Ukraine

In reality the 'heavy' bomber if able to carry twice the load of a medium bomber effectively replaces two medium bombers (plus takes on the engines), but it is lighter than two medium bombers. Two He111s or Ju88s together weigh more than a single He177 or B17. So while being more complex and requiring the same number of engines, it actually uses less fuel per ton of bomb and metal to make than two medium bombers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B-17_Flying_Fortress#Specifications_.28B-17G.29
Empty weight: 36,135 lb (16,391 kg)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinkel_He_111#Specifications
Empty weight: 8,680 kg (19,136lb lb)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_Ju_88#Specifications_Ju_88_A-4
  • Loaded weight: 8,550 kg (18,832 lb)
That was a lighter version of the Ju88 compared to later varieties.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinkel_He_177#Specifications_.28He_177_A-5.2FR2.29
The B17 and He177 were heavier than two Do17s and used more powerful engines, but they carried about 4x the payload and had much greater range. For what the Do17's payload and range was, it was just as good to use a Bf110 or Ju87. Four Do17s (same max payload) as a strategic bomber carrying 4 tons of bombs weighed significantly more, using more fuel and metal to carry that same tonnage to target, though the heavy bomber could reach many more targets and have far heavier defensive weaponry to survive.

Part of the issue too is survivability, something the heavy bombers had the edge over medium bombers. A medium bomber might be lighter and faster, but if it gets killed far more regularly especially in 1940 then the heavy bomber ends up costing less from less lost metal, engines, crew, and lost capability.
 
I think we are thinking along similar lines.

Yes, but were they with the engineering understanding of that period? I don't know. They had to work around weak engines, which compromised the designs; with such weak engines they required massive wings to generate enough lift to fly, but then created a lot of drag and wasted weight. If say ordered to a spec with a potential high powered development, say a planned DB600/1 with 1000hp for take off they could have probably gotten a better design out of the original spec, but still not as good as later designs due to more limited aerodynamic understanding compared to 1936 or later (bomber A). So with the understanding they'd be working with better engines not yet available they could have gotten something better, but its unclear if they could yet design something worthwhile enough.

If they could have they could have had it by 1940.

The Bf109 was designed at about the same time. IIRC the prototype had a RR Kestrel, the Bf 109B&C had the Jumo 210 before the availability of the DB601 led to the Bf109D&E. If I have got my facts right the Bf110V1 had Jumo 210 engine and the Bf110A and B were not produced in large numbers because they performed too poorly with engines that produced 30% less power than the DB601 fitted to the Bf110C.

My original idea was that the 12 Do19A and 12 Ju89A series would be pre-production versions of the Do19V1 and Ju89V1 with the same engines as the prototypes, but the Do19B and Ju89B would have DB601 or Jumo211 engines. Form what you say it the B-series of both aircraft would also need redesigned wings. Or do as you suggest, that is design them for engines in the 1,000 to 1,200hp class in the first place. Either way I think Germany would have had bombers with similar performance to the B-17A to E series in the first half of the war.

As you also say it would not have been as good as bomber begun in 1936, but a bomber started in 1936 would not have been ready for 1939.

No, it would have ended up in the same boat as the He177: too later to matter. The Ju288 was viable had Milch not gotten into a pissing match with Koppenberg at Junkers and developed the engine and aircraft to death to break his rival's hold on production. Of course that never would have even started had Udet not come into the picture upon Wever's death, so the Ju288 might have become a viable aircraft IOTL without Udet. The He277 wasn't a four engined He177, that was the He177B; the 277 was the Atlantic bomber and a whole story in itself. If the DB603 didn't get cancelled it would likely have power the He177B that Heinkel wanted earlier, if at a working Ural Bomber IF we are presupposing they have a viable design.
.

Do you mean the Ju289 would have been too late to matter? My estimate is that it would be ready to enter service in the first half of 1942. That is too late to matter for the Battle of Britain, but it would have been an improvement on the later Fw200Cs.

Sorry, I did think that the He177B and He277 were the same aircraft. The story I read was that Goering was so sick of the He177B, that Heinkel renamed it the He277 as a cover. I actually meant the He177B and that it goes into service in the last quarter of 1940 or the first quarter of 1941.

I don't know much about the Ju288. I thought was let down by having the same engines as the He177A and that the electrical systems could not be made reliable enough. I also think the Luftwaffe would have been better off if they had turned the Ju88 into the Ju188 and 388 earlier instead of the Ju288.

They did the 200 because of the Japanese asking for a militarized version of the civilian airliner. The Germans inherited it when the war started and opted to use it because it was what was available. A working Uralbomber probably would have preempted it.

My idea was that Lufthansa decides that it wants an airliner version of the Ju89 a year earlier and orders 3 prototypes from Junkers in place of the Fw200 prototypes of the real world. Therefore the Japanese can't buy a maritime recce version because there is no airliner version to develop it from. However, the Luftwaffe does have a maritime recce version of the Uralbomber in development so they buy that instead. None reach the Japanese though because the Luftwaffe requisitions them before they can be delivered.

The 191 was a later development and a mess. It was never viable IMHO.

Correct. The start on the Fw191 roughly corresponds to the Japanese Fw200 order, so I thought the effort put into the Fw200C would be put into the Fw191. However, in a half-finished essay on my laptop the resources are used to design a DB603 engined Fw190 that is ready in time to be built instead of the Bf109F.

Read my thread about the Do19 I did for just that reason.

Please will you send me the link.

And they would only have one design in production of the Ural Bomber worked out. The 116 was kind of like a four engine 111.

Unfortunately in my TL the He111 might be taken out of production in 1939 in favour of the earlier introduction of the Ju88. That is because Udet isn't around to add the dive-bomber requirement.

Does anybody know if Heinkel proposed a design for the Uralbomber specification? While I was writing this I thought if the He116 was a sort of 4-engine He111 could they have turned the He116 (which I know nothing about other that it existed) into a Uralbomber or a scaled-up He111 to meet the specification?
 
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