Luftwaffe heavy bombers in 1940

The reason the Luftwaffe turned its face against heavy bombers was that you can only get about 3 four engined bombers for the same resources that give you 5 medium bombers.

...

The production capabilities of the 1930s probablly would give you a 3 to 6 ratio, or slightly worse.

Several issues:
1) These aircraft will not be particularly useful in France, so their development may well result in Germany being unable to even get into the same position.

...

Yep. We could see the Poles holding on weeks longer, and the battle in the west going badly for the Wehrmacht. The victories over Poland, Netherlands, Belgium, & France were not won by bombing Warsaw, Rotterdam, or London. The campaigns were won by maximum attention to attacking the enemy ground forces, & second to fighting their air forces. Heavy bombers dont have a good track record at ground support. A few heavy bomber groups pounding Paris in May 1940 is not going to contribute to a armored breakout on the Meuse River.
 
cannot imagine a scenario for heavy bomber by 1940.

what COULD have been developed was Junkers JU-89/JU-290 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_Ju_290 (plausible for long hauls to China?)

maybe a large flying boat (something between BV-138 and BV-222?)

both useful but not really heavy bombers

MY scenario, something never built, would be Heinkel HE-111 with the "power system" twinned engines used on HE-177 and larger wings.

(engines actually worked in an inline arrangement such as ME-261 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messerschmitt_Me_261#/media/File:Messerschmitt261zentral6.jpg)

probably 100 mph faster than regular HE-111 and Dornier experiment with similar concept projected to have 20,000 lb. payload.
 

Deleted member 1487

Yeah, I didn't go there on purpose. The He177 is a textbook case of mismanagement at all levels. But, as you said, it would have come far too late.

I was creating a scenario based on hardware of the mid 1930's, a german counter to the Wellington and Halifax. Anything latter than that would be a dead issue.
The Ju89 and Do19 were not viable heavy bombers. You'd need them to be like the B17 in terms of stretch, but understand too that the B17 didn't have to be what it became until at least mid-1942. Even the Halifax and Short Stirling (the Wellington was a two engine bomber like the HE111) were only operational in late 1941 and were significantly later designs with the resulting aerodynamic improvements over the 1934 German Ural Bomber designs.

But let's assume that the Do19 is designed around more powerful engines so isn't as compromised as the OTL version was to accommodate the weak engines available in 1936. Let's say its got potential to be as good as the B17 with the right engines. It replaces the Do17 in production by 1938 (phased out to retool for the 19) and prevents the Do217 from getting into production. It would also replace the Fw200 in production in 1940, as it fulfilled that role and the He177 would have taken that on itself had it been ready. It replaces some of the He111's production because its taking over part of its roles. It gets into production in 1939 and into operational service in early 1940. Overall that means fewer bombers, but due to its greater payload, range, and defensive armament it is not only more survivable, but versatile. There still is likely some overall loss due to the greater maintenance requirements of the heavy bomber vs. medium bombers. That probable preempts certain missions like the strategic bombing attacks on French aviation industry taken during the French campaign and night attacks on Britain before the French were defeated.

It however probably doesn't affect the outcome of the French campaign, as it suffers less losses than the Do17 would have. Tactical missions are taken on by the Ju88 and He111s, while the Do19 instead focuses on more operational attacks (rail yards, ports, supply depots, airbases). For the sake of argument it has the ability to carry 4x the bombs of the Do17 and 2x that of the HE111, if not more by strapping extra external bombs to it like the B17. I doubt it would have been that good by 1940, but for the sake of argument, let's say so. Come the BoB it carries out the same missions as the lighter bombers, perhaps with greater surviveability due to heavier construction and defensive armament than the Do17 or even Ju88, as the British did not have a working cannon on their fighters in any numbers until October IIRC. It can take a heavier payload and thus allows a maximizing of the limited escort resources, as there were far more bombers available IOTL than fighters and bombing missions were limited by fighter escorts.

That doesn't ultimately matter to the BoB though, as there are probably too few Do19s to make a difference to the outcome even if they inflict more damage per mission and take fewer losses; they will still be shot up and worn down by the campaign. They wouldn't really offer that much more advantage during the Blitz. They might be more versatile in the East though, but they offer no added benefit over a He177 working and being ready in 1942 and in fact detract by being less capable than the He177 would have been.

It doesn't change the outcome of the war or really affect the outcome of campaigns, though it changes things on the margins and gets the old Do17 out of service earlier. If the Do19 had been technically worth it I'd say its better than producing the Do17, 217, Fw200, Ju290, or the non-functional He177 (though not a working He177), but that requires ASB intervention due to the horridness of the Ural Bomber designs
 

Deleted member 1487

what you need is the italian Piaggio 4 engined bomber (akin to a B-17)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piaggio_P.108
No, it was a worse version of the Ju290. It was twice as heavy as the B17 or even He177 and never really worked that well.

Yep. We could see the Poles holding on weeks longer, and the battle in the west going badly for the Wehrmacht. The victories over Poland, Netherlands, Belgium, & France were not won by bombing Warsaw, Rotterdam, or London. The campaigns were won by maximum attention to attacking the enemy ground forces, & second to fighting their air forces. Heavy bombers dont have a good track record at ground support. A few heavy bomber groups pounding Paris in May 1940 is not going to contribute to a armored breakout on the Meuse River.
Not really. It would mainly focus on non-tactical missions, which were the majority of LW missions during 1939-40. It would be just fine for operational interdiction missions and against airfeilds and what not. The LW level bombers weren't doing that much CAS. Medium bombers that are produced can conduct tactical missions instead and let the strategic bomber focus on missions is can do well like airfield bombing, hitting rail yards, ports, supply depots, etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinkel_He_111_operational_history#French_campaign
On 14 May 1940, He 111s of KG 54 undertook the Rotterdam Blitz in which large portions of the city were destroyed after the 111s had dropped some 91 tonnes (100 tons) of bombs. The Dutch surrendered early the following morning, ending the Battle of the Netherlands.[22] The He 111 - with its heavier bomb load - was also tasked with the destruction of the French rail network in the Reims and Amiens regions. Their attacks were instrumental in preventing French reinforcements and retreats. Any French counter against the German forces left flank was impossible as a result.[25] With the conclusion of Fall Gelb the He 111 units prepared for Fall Rot. Some 600 He 111s and Do 17s took part in Operation Paula which was aimed at the final destruction of French air power in and around Paris. The He 111 had performed well, though losses were substantially higher than in any campaign before it. This was mainly due to its light defensive armament. This would be exposed during the Battle of Britain, the first major test of the He 111s poor defensive armament.[28]
A heavy bomber like the B17 would not suffer nearly as many losses due to heavier defensive armament, heavier armor, and the lack of allied fighter cannons.
 
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what COULD have been developed was Junkers JU-89/JU-290 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_Ju_290 (plausible for long hauls to China?)

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MY scenario, something never built, would be Heinkel HE-111 with the "power system" twinned engines used on HE-177 and larger wings.

Too late, imho. Either the germans get a large(ish) number of heavies by early 1940, or not at all; after 1940, production is too comited to existing models.

Not really. It would mainly focus on non-tactical missions, which were the majority of LW missions during 1939-40. It would be just fine for operational interdiction missions and against airfeilds and what not. The LW level bombers weren't doing that much CAS. Medium bombers that are produced can conduct tactical missions instead and let the strategic bomber focus on missions is can do well like airfield bombing, hitting rail yards, ports, supply depots, etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinkel_He_111_operational_history#French_campaign

A heavy bomber like the B17 would not suffer nearly as many losses due to heavier defensive armament, heavier armor, and the lack of allied fighter cannons.

This here.


But, just to return a bit to my idea: assuming the BoB result I extrapolate, anyone thinks this would convince Hitler to try the invasion? That disaster would have some interesting consequences...
 
The Do19 and Ju89 were also cancelled because the Germans thought World War 2 would start in the second half of 1942 when Bomber A (the He177A) was expected to be in large scale service.

Having said that the Germans should have built pre-production batches of 12 Do19A-0 and 12 Ju89A-0 to build up some experience of four-engine bomber operations pending the arrival of Bomber A.

If I had been Goering, Junkers would have built 150 Ju89B (fitted with DB601 or Jumo211 engines) by September 1939 when 94 of them would have equipped KG.40 (3 full-strength groups plus the staff flight) in the Luftwaffe's Coastal Command. If I had been him I would also not build the Fw200 at all. Instead Junkers would also have built more Ju90 transports in place of the Fw200A and B and more Ju89B series in favour of the Fw200C. (Focke-Wulf would use the released factory capacity to build more trainers.)

Meanwhile Dornier could have built a Do19B (with DB601 or Jumo 211 engines) that could have been built in place of the Do17Z and Do215. But they would not have taken a direct part in the Battle of Britain. Instead they would have been in Fliegersdivision 9/Fliegerkorps IX mining British coastal waters. The Luftwaffe did not begin night bombing of the British mainland until June 1940 ITOL and this is when the Do19s would begin raids on the British mainland ITTL. Their targets would be British aircraft factories and airfields in preparation for Operation Sealion. However, the Luftwaffe still looses the Battle of Britain and Operation Sea Lion is still cancelled.

Substituting the Do19 for the Do17Z and Do215 means the Luftwaffe drops more bombs on Britain during the Blitz. However, in OTL the Germans dropped the same tonnage of bombs on Britain during the Blitz as the Allies dropped on Germany to the end of 1942. The Germans would destroy more buildings increasing the cost of reconstruction after the war, but I doubt that it would have a significant effect on British industrial production.

On the other hand having 3 groups of Ju89 instead of one Fw200 group between June 1940 and the end of 1941 would have a significant impact on the Battle of the Atlantic. The Kriegsmarine would have a better idea where the convoys were and the bombers would sink 3 times the number of ships on their own account. The availability of the Do19 instead of the medium bombers in the real world means Fliegerkorps IX can lay a significantly greater number of mines in British coastal waters. They wouldn't win the Battle of the Atlantic for Germany, but both would be a major headache for the Royal Navy.

In the real world the Germans developed the Do17 into the Do217 which could carry quadruple the bomb load of the Do17 over short distances. Junkers developed the Ju90 into the Ju290. I don't see why the Do17 and Ju89 couldn't have been developed into the Do219 and Ju289 to meet the Bomber A requirement. With hindsight either of them would have been a better investment for Germany than the He177.

I think the Germans had the factory capacity to build 12 Do19, 12 Ju89A and about 450 Ju89B/90/289, plus a one-to-one substitution of the Do19/219 for the Do17Z/215/217.

The problems would be finding the extra raw materials to build the aircraft, the extra personnel (aircrew and maintenance crew). Having said that if Wever hadn't died and Goering had left Milch in charge of aircraft production instead of appointing Udet (which is what I would have done if I had been Goering) I think these problems would have been solved.

Then they have to find the extra oil. Germany did begin a huge expansion of its synthetic oil industry in 1936, only 40% of the planned capacity was in production by the end of 1942. The source I got this from said it was due to lack of labour and a shortage of steel. I believe that with better organisation of materials and labour German industrial production could have been moderately increased between the middle of 1937 and June 1940. I also believe that after they had occupied France the improved raw materials situation allowed Germany to produce a lot more between then and the end of 1942. That is my main reason for putting Milch in charge of aircraft production instead of Udet in that period.

Therefore I think Germany could have doubled its synthetic oil production to 9.6 million barrels in 1937 and 18.0 million barrels in 1938. After that production would steadily increase to 90 million barrels in 1943 instead of 36 million barrels. That is if the expansion of the oil industry had first call on the resources made available through Germany making better use of what they had.
 
Duh, forgot the Do-17. Ofc, dump it too. Wasn't that good anyway...

So: dump the He-111 and the Do-17, leave just part of the Ju-88 production. And, since this started in 1936, I do believe the germans would be able to field multiple groups of one heavy by 1940. Which would them give the Luftwafe a line of of "heavy bomber", Stukas and some Ju-88. I will admit my ignorance of german fuel production by 1940.

One point: why would germany develop extra fuel tanks before 1940? No one else did. Everyone thought that "the bomber would make it" alone. Afterwards, sure, but not before.

Which was similar to the OTL plan - dump the 111 and 17, concentrate on the Ju-88 being mass produced. Only the inconvenient issue of industrial resources bollixed it. Read Tooze. This plan will be even worse...
 
The Do19 and Ju89 were also cancelled because the Germans thought World War 2 would start in the second half of 1942 when Bomber A (the He177A) was expected to be in large scale service.

Having said that the Germans should have built pre-production batches of 12 Do19A-0 and 12 Ju89A-0 to build up some experience of four-engine bomber operations pending the arrival of Bomber A.

If I had been Goering, Junkers would have built 150 Ju89B (fitted with DB601 or Jumo211 engines) by September 1939 when 94 of them would have equipped KG.40 (3 full-strength groups plus the staff flight) in the Luftwaffe's Coastal Command. If I had been him I would also not build the Fw200 at all. Instead Junkers would also have built more Ju90 transports in place of the Fw200A and B and more Ju89B series in favour of the Fw200C. (Focke-Wulf would use the released factory capacity to build more trainers.)

Meanwhile Dornier could have built a Do19B (with DB601 or Jumo 211 engines) that could have been built in place of the Do17Z and Do215. But they would not have taken a direct part in the Battle of Britain. Instead they would have been in Fliegersdivision 9/Fliegerkorps IX mining British coastal waters. The Luftwaffe did not begin night bombing of the British mainland until June 1940 ITOL and this is when the Do19s would begin raids on the British mainland ITTL. Their targets would be British aircraft factories and airfields in preparation for Operation Sealion. However, the Luftwaffe still looses the Battle of Britain and Operation Sea Lion is still cancelled.

Substituting the Do19 for the Do17Z and Do215 means the Luftwaffe drops more bombs on Britain during the Blitz. However, in OTL the Germans dropped the same tonnage of bombs on Britain during the Blitz as the Allies dropped on Germany to the end of 1942. The Germans would destroy more buildings increasing the cost of reconstruction after the war, but I doubt that it would have a significant effect on British industrial production.

On the other hand having 3 groups of Ju89 instead of one Fw200 group between June 1940 and the end of 1941 would have a significant impact on the Battle of the Atlantic. The Kriegsmarine would have a better idea where the convoys were and the bombers would sink 3 times the number of ships on their own account. The availability of the Do19 instead of the medium bombers in the real world means Fliegerkorps IX can lay a significantly greater number of mines in British coastal waters. They wouldn't win the Battle of the Atlantic for Germany, but both would be a major headache for the Royal Navy.

In the real world the Germans developed the Do17 into the Do217 which could carry quadruple the bomb load of the Do17 over short distances. Junkers developed the Ju90 into the Ju290. I don't see why the Do17 and Ju89 couldn't have been developed into the Do219 and Ju289 to meet the Bomber A requirement. With hindsight either of them would have been a better investment for Germany than the He177.

I think the Germans had the factory capacity to build 12 Do19, 12 Ju89A and about 450 Ju89B/90/289, plus a one-to-one substitution of the Do19/219 for the Do17Z/215/217.

The problems would be finding the extra raw materials to build the aircraft, the extra personnel (aircrew and maintenance crew). Having said that if Wever hadn't died and Goering had left Milch in charge of aircraft production instead of appointing Udet (which is what I would have done if I had been Goering) I think these problems would have been solved.

Then they have to find the extra oil. Germany did begin a huge expansion of its synthetic oil industry in 1936, only 40% of the planned capacity was in production by the end of 1942. The source I got this from said it was due to lack of labour and a shortage of steel. I believe that with better organisation of materials and labour German industrial production could have been moderately increased between the middle of 1937 and June 1940. I also believe that after they had occupied France the improved raw materials situation allowed Germany to produce a lot more between then and the end of 1942. That is my main reason for putting Milch in charge of aircraft production instead of Udet in that period.

Therefore I think Germany could have doubled its synthetic oil production to 9.6 million barrels in 1937 and 18.0 million barrels in 1938. After that production would steadily increase to 90 million barrels in 1943 instead of 36 million barrels. That is if the expansion of the oil industry had first call on the resources made available through Germany making better use of what they had.


You know, we really should make people read Tooze before they write this stuff. twice. And pass a test on it... :mad:

90 million barrels...from WHAT, Unicorn poop?
 
The Ju89 and Do19 were not viable heavy bombers. You'd need them to be like the B17 in terms of stretch, but understand too that the B17 didn't have to be what it became until at least mid-1942. Even the Halifax and Short Stirling (the Wellington was a two engine bomber like the HE111) were only operational in late 1941 and were significantly later designs with the resulting aerodynamic improvements over the 1934 German Ural Bomber designs.

But let's assume that the Do19 is designed around more powerful engines so isn't as compromised as the OTL version was to accommodate the weak engines available in 1936. Let's say its got potential to be as good as the B17 with the right engines. It replaces the Do17 in production by 1938 (phased out to retool for the 19) and prevents the Do217 from getting into production. It would also replace the Fw200 in production in 1940, as it fulfilled that role and the He177 would have taken that on itself had it been ready. It replaces some of the He111's production because its taking over part of its roles. It gets into production in 1939 and into operational service in early 1940. Overall that means fewer bombers, but due to its greater payload, range, and defensive armament it is not only more survivable, but versatile. There still is likely some overall loss due to the greater maintenance requirements of the heavy bomber vs. medium bombers. That probable preempts certain missions like the strategic bombing attacks on French aviation industry taken during the French campaign and night attacks on Britain before the French were defeated.

It however probably doesn't affect the outcome of the French campaign, as it suffers less losses than the Do17 would have. Tactical missions are taken on by the Ju88 and He111s, while the Do19 instead focuses on more operational attacks (rail yards, ports, supply depots, airbases). For the sake of argument it has the ability to carry 4x the bombs of the Do17 and 2x that of the HE111, if not more by strapping extra external bombs to it like the B17. I doubt it would have been that good by 1940, but for the sake of argument, let's say so. Come the BoB it carries out the same missions as the lighter bombers, perhaps with greater surviveability due to heavier construction and defensive armament than the Do17 or even Ju88, as the British did not have a working cannon on their fighters in any numbers until October IIRC. It can take a heavier payload and thus allows a maximizing of the limited escort resources, as there were far more bombers available IOTL than fighters and bombing missions were limited by fighter escorts.

That doesn't ultimately matter to the BoB though, as there are probably too few Do19s to make a difference to the outcome even if they inflict more damage per mission and take fewer losses; they will still be shot up and worn down by the campaign. They wouldn't really offer that much more advantage during the Blitz. They might be more versatile in the East though, but they offer no added benefit over a He177 working and being ready in 1942 and in fact detract by being less capable than the He177 would have been.

It doesn't change the outcome of the war or really affect the outcome of campaigns, though it changes things on the margins and gets the old Do17 out of service earlier. If the Do19 had been technically worth it I'd say its better than producing the Do17, 217, Fw200, Ju290, or the non-functional He177 (though not a working He177), but that requires ASB intervention due to the horridness of the Ural Bomber designs

Sorry Wiking, I started writing my post before you posted yours.

Were the Do19 and Ju89 really that bad? Or were they really much worse than the early marks of Bf109 or Bf110 that had to make do with the Jumo 210 and DB600 engines?

The Uralbombers prototypes flew at about the same time as the first XB-17. I don't have the statistics, but there is a lot of difference between that and the B-17F and G. Did the Do17 and Ju89 airframes have that sort of development potential? I think that if Junkers could have developed the Ju290 out of the Ju89, they could have done a Ju289 too. However, if you know something that I don't know that means they can't...
 

Deleted member 1487

In terms of oil there was a lot available in or near the Reich if it had been discovered (Schoonebeek, Matzen, Hungary):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoonebeek_oil_field
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matzen_oil_field
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algyő_oil_field
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagylengyel_oil_field

In terms of the German economy...yeah Goering screwed that up enormously. In the "Germany and the Second World War" series by the Bundeswehr's historical research department the economy pre-war and early war under him was called organized chaos with a lot of wasted effort and materials. Even the waste on the West Wall and Plan Z could have been plenty for the synthetic oil program. There was no conceivable need for Germany to build up aircraft carriers or a huge battle fleet. Even as late as 1942 there were still work being done on Hitler's party architecture programs and the Autobahn (despite most transit being done by rail or inland waterways).

If you have a POD such as Goering dying in 1936 instead of Wever you'd get Fritz Todt running the 4 year program and having a proto-Speer run economy, but better as Speer was just copying what his boss, Todt, had put in place before he died. In that context there would of course still be waste, as Hitler would demand certain projects like the Autobahn and party buildings.

However in terms of the OTL Ural Bombers even with the better engines, were still a huge mess:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dornier_Do_19
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_Ju_89

And for comparison the Fw200:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focke-Wulf_Fw_200_Condor

Range and payload was better with smaller engines on the Condor. The design of the fuselage and wings of the Ural Bombers were aerodynamically compromised and didn't include enough fuel or payload to justify their use. As demonstrators they would be fine, but outside maybe recon they would be nearly useless. Even recon-wise they lacked range...which was before defensive armament was added.
 

Deleted member 1487

Which was similar to the OTL plan - dump the 111 and 17, concentrate on the Ju-88 being mass produced. Only the inconvenient issue of industrial resources bollixed it. Read Tooze. This plan will be even worse...
You know, we really should make people read Tooze before they write this stuff. twice. And pass a test on it... :mad:

Again Tooze has issues with his analysis. There was a lot of organization problems within the LW and once it was properly organized production went way up without additions of labor, raw materials, or factory floor space. Production IOTL stagnated between 1940-41 and rose precipitously from 1942 on when things were properly run.
If they had cancelled He177 production there would have been enough for and addition 2400 Ju88s or He111s if we assume the 4:2 engine ratio holds across the board and Heinkel factories that made the He177 could have made 111s or Ju88 parts instead.
 
You know, we really should make people read Tooze before they write this stuff. twice. And pass a test on it... :mad:

90 million barrels...from WHAT, Unicorn poop?

COAL!

Germany produced 36 million barrels of synthetic coal in 1943. Therefore they need to find enough UNICORN POOP to produce fifty four million barrels - I repeat FIFTY FOUR MILLION BARRELS - I suggest that we really should make people read posts properly and pass a basic arithmetic test before people start criticising.

Also the Germans wouldn't have made a plan to be producing 88 million barrels of synthetic oil by 1943 if they didn't have enough coal to make it from.
 

Deleted member 1487

Sorry Wiking, I started writing my post before you posted yours.

Were the Do19 and Ju89 really that bad? Or were they really much worse than the early marks of Bf109 or Bf110 that had to make do with the Jumo 210 and DB600 engines?

The Uralbombers prototypes flew at about the same time as the first XB-17. I don't have the statistics, but there is a lot of difference between that and the B-17F and G. Did the Do17 and Ju89 airframes have that sort of development potential? I think that if Junkers could have developed the Ju290 out of the Ju89, they could have done a Ju289 too. However, if you know something that I don't know that means they can't...

Yes the Ural Bombers were that bad. The Ju90 and 290 were pretty much totally different designs, having new fuselages and wings (and what's left besides that?). That's not to say that Dornier couldn't have designed a four engine strategic bomber instead of the 217, say a 219. Junkers had too much else to make to worry about besides making a 189 or 289.

And if we want a naval recon aircraft we can make this with Fw200 engines:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinkel_He_116
http://www.aviastar.org/pictures/germany/he-116.gif
 

Deleted member 1487

COAL!

Germany produced 36 million barrels of synthetic coal in 1943. Therefore they need to find enough UNICORN POOP to produce fifty four million barrels - I repeat FIFTY FOUR MILLION BARRELS - I suggest that we really should make people read posts properly and pass a basic arithmetic test before people start criticising.

Also the Germans wouldn't have made a plan to be producing 88 million barrels of synthetic oil by 1943 if they didn't have enough coal to make it from.
They had enough, they just lacked the synthetic making equipment yet to do it; it was planned for 1946 had the bombing and war not gotten in the way.
 
But, just to return a bit to my idea: assuming the BoB result I extrapolate, anyone thinks this would convince Hitler to try the invasion? That disaster would have some interesting consequences...

Why bother? You have supplied zero justification for why a heavy bomber would even make a difference in the BoB, let alone lead to the destruction of the RAF. If you want a fantasy scenario, just post that fantasy scenario as it's own thread and discuss the implications there.
 
Sorry Wiking, I started writing my post before you posted yours.

Were the Do19 and Ju89 really that bad? Or were they really much worse than the early marks of Bf109 or Bf110 that had to make do with the Jumo 210 and DB600 engines?

The Uralbombers prototypes flew at about the same time as the first XB-17. I don't have the statistics, but there is a lot of difference between that and the B-17F and G. Did the Do17 and Ju89 airframes have that sort of development potential? I think that if Junkers could have developed the Ju290 out of the Ju89, they could have done a Ju289 too. However, if you know something that I don't know that means they can't...


The British realised before the war that .30 and .50 cal weapons were not good enough to shoot down 2 engined bombers - most nations fighters in Mid 1939 had 2 - 4 mgs - the British started with their aircraft having 8 as a result of those findings.

Even then they knew it wasn't enough and worked hard to introduce the HS 404 20mm cannon to the Hurricane and Spitfire (the Whirlwind already had 4 - but this baby was thrown out with the bath water when France Fell).

Operational experiance showed that those twin engine bombers that had been shot down had often sustained hundreds of bullet strikes

Now if a larger bomber was in the picture and operation experiance showed that a greater number of bullets was required to shoot them down then expect the British to have put more effort into the development and introduction of the HS 404 earlier than OTL rather than just put a freeze on development and instead concentrate on producing as many fighters as possible.
 

Deleted member 1487

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dornier_Do_19
Basically had Dornier just dropped this design in 1937, perhaps joining in the Bomber A spec in June 1936 when ordered, and took what they learned from the failure to make the next generation version with more powerful engines they could potentially have cut some time out of design work due to experience. It wouldn't have been ready in 1940, but could have gotten in service in 1941. OTL Do19 or Ju89 were just not going to cut it, if you want a 1940 version ready to go it would need to be a different design, perhaps ordered to be designed around a potential 1000hp engine, rather than the 600hp engines it was to have.

Now if a larger bomber was in the picture and operation experiance showed that a greater number of bullets was required to shoot them down then expect the British to have put more effort into the development and introduction of the HS 404 earlier than OTL rather than just put a freeze on development and instead concentrate on producing as many fighters as possible.
They'd probably put a twin engine fighter in the air to try and shoot them down (though ironically given the Bf110 a target it could take down and being dog meat for the Bf109), which IIRC would have been able to use existing Mk. 1 cannons. The Whirlwind was SOL due to engine issues, the Beaufighter was being rushed as is, pretty much leaving a fighter version of the Blenheim...which might be pretty vulnerable to escorts. Maybe the Defiant could mount a couple cannons instead of quad .303s?
 
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If you have a POD such as Goering dying in 1936 instead of Wever you'd get Fritz Todt running the 4 year program and having a proto-Speer run economy, but better as Speer was just copying what his boss, Todt, had put in place before he died.

Now that is a worrying thought...

Why bother? You have supplied zero justification for why a heavy bomber would even make a difference in the BoB, let alone lead to the destruction of the RAF.

Really?...

But imagine this: Wever doesn't die, or Kesselring continues the program, and the Luftwaffe starts the war with severall groups of heavy bombers with around 3.5-4 tons payload (the twin-engined Wellington carried 2tons, Hallifax over 5) and proper defences (unlike RAF bombers, even these prototypes had multiple cannon). This allows them do to a lot more damage per raid than the combination of He-111/Ju-88, wrecking the RAF's infrastructure before they are shifted to the cities: airfields, radars, comunications, etc.
 
Yes the Ural Bombers were that bad. The Ju90 and 290 were pretty much totally different designs, having new fuselages and wings (and what's left besides that?). That's not to say that Dornier couldn't have designed a four engine strategic bomber instead of the 217, say a 219. Junkers had too much else to make to worry about besides making a 189 or 289.

Were the problems with the Uralbombers avoidable? I.e. was it due to some stuip requirement by the RLM or Luftwaffe or did the design team have a clever idea that didn't work?

Junkers might have time to do a Ju289 if it hadn't had to do the Ju288 to the Bomber B requirement. However, if Wever hadn't died, Milch had more power and/or Udet wasn't in authority the DB603 engine might not have been delayed and Heinkel might have been able to change the He177 into the He277 earlier so the Ju289 wouldn't be need.

If Focke-Wulf didn't have to do the Fw200 they could have put the effort saved into developing the Fw191, but as that didn't go into production either the Luftwaffe would have been better off improving the Fw190.

I wanted to substitute the Uralbomber because I wanted to get a long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft in large scale service by the middle of 1940. Ideally I would like it to be the He277. However, Bomber A was started in 1936 and the British heavy bombers started at the same time didn't come into service until the end of 1940, so I think getting the He277 into service at the end of 1939 and having 3 MR groups operational by June 1940 isn't possible.

I didn't read the links about the He116, but if it could do the job it would be an extra type in large-scale production. Another reason why I cut out the Fw200 is to reduce the numbers of types in production to facilitate mass production. Ideally if with some jiggery pokery either the Do19 or Ju89 could spawn a family of useful combat aircraft I only want one of them to go into production.
 
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