Lucky Jim

What If...Jim Callaghan survived the 1979 no-confidence vote?

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Doesn't change much. Labour was pretty much doomed after the Winter of Discontent and the day after the confidence vote the Liberal's David Alton won the Liverpool Edge Hill by-election that, if Alton had gotten to take his seat, would have further weakened the Government's position. Although he could have hung on until November by all accounts Callaghan was fed up with the strain of trying to keep the Government going and was planning on going to the country sooner rather than later. Given that the polls at the time showed clear Tory leads Thatcher's position was secure, she might have had to wait a bit longer but she was in all likelihood going to become PM later that year.
 
Doesn't change much. Labour was pretty much doomed after the Winter of Discontent and the day after the confidence vote the Liberal's David Alton won the Liverpool Edge Hill by-election that, if Alton had gotten to take his seat, would have further weakened the Government's position. Although he could have hung on until November by all accounts Callaghan was fed up with the strain of trying to keep the Government going and was planning on going to the country sooner rather than later. Given that the polls at the time showed clear Tory leads Thatcher's position was secure, she might have had to wait a bit longer but she was in all likelihood going to become PM later that year.

Pretty much agree with all this poast, being allowed to hang on for an extra 5 months maximum is a poisoned chalice if ever there was one.
so it'd be more like 'Unlucky Jim' had he survived the confidence voat. MRS T would be elected in October at the latest and things progress pretty much as OTL from there.
An October 1978 election however, has potential to affect things profoundly-this was Sunny Jim's best bet.
 

AndyC

Donor
Pretty much agree with all this poast, being allowed to hang on for an extra 5 months maximum is a poisoned chalice if ever there was one.
so it'd be more like 'Unlucky Jim' had he survived the confidence voat. MRS T would be elected in October at the latest and things progress pretty much as OTL from there.
An October 1978 election however, has potential to affect things profoundly-this was Sunny Jim's best bet.

Fully agree on all counts.
However, for Callaghan to have called an election in October 1978 would have been very "courageous" - all indications are that it would have resulted in a Hung Parliament. Given what we know in retrospect, that was the best he could have hoped for, but it's a very big decision to go a year early in order to lose seats and get a Hung result.
 
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