Let's run with that 380,000 tons just because I don't have anything better ATM.
93% of that would be 353,400 tons. The south would then logically have 26,600 tons of production. If we reduce that 353,400 by 15%, we still have a hair over 300,000 tons. That's still WAY more than the south.
Gunpowder.
Not sure if I can track down any numbers for this, but let's see.
Per
http://footguards.tripod.com/06ARTICLES/ART28_blackpowder.htm
c.1860, United States
DOMINANT SUPPLIERS TO THE UNION FORCES
The North had plenty of powder during the Civil War. The principal suppliers DuPont, Lafflin & Rand, and Hazzard made millions of dollars, which allowed them to persist in the business beyond the turn of the century. Of these DuPont, while no longer engaged in the manufacture of Black Powder, persists through today.
Nothing really revealing there, but if they had 'plenty of powder', its probably safe to assume a 15% decrease won't hurt them that much...
Artillery:
I'm certainly no historian, but you've got me reading up more and more here...
Per Wiki on:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Field_artillery_in_the_American_Civil_War#History_and_organization
The Union Army entered the war with a strong advantage in artillery...
At the start of the war, the U.S. Army had 2,283 guns on hand, but only about 10% of these were field artillery pieces. By the end of the war, the army had 3,325 guns, of which 53% were field pieces. The army reported as "supplied to the army during the war" the following quantities: 7,892 guns, 6,335,295 artillery projectiles, 2,862,177 rounds of fixed artillery ammunition, 45,258 tons of lead metal, and 13,320 tons of gunpowder.
Ah ha! There are some numbers we can play with!
7,900 guns supplied to the army during the course of the war, with another 2,300 available at the start.
Let's reduce those supplied by our 15% = 6,715.
The south on the other hand...
The South was at a relative disadvantage to the North for deployment of artillery. The industrial North had far greater capacity for manufacturing weapons, and the Union blockade of Southern ports prevented many foreign arms from reaching the Southern armies...
The Confederate cannons built in the South often suffered from the shortage of quality metals and shoddy workmanship. Another disadvantage was the quality of ammunition. The fuses needed for detonating shells and cases were frequently inaccurate, causing premature or delayed explosions. All that, coupled with the Union gunners' initial competence and experience gained as the war progressed, led Southern forces to dread assaults on Northern positions backed up by artillery. A Southern officer observed, "The combination of Yankee artillery with Rebel infantry would make an army that could be beaten by no one."
Interesting bit of information there. Let's see what the south had to offer for artillery:
Bugger... not a whole lot...
Ok, screw that direction.
Let's just look at over all numbers of men.
Per (in this case I think, the acceptable) Wiki
South = 1,064,000
North = 2,100,000
Casualties
South = 260,000 total dead
North = 365,000 total dead
% of male 18/20 ~ 40/45 pop (not sure how reliable this is...):
North - 10%
South - 30%
Not a whole lot to work with there, but let's see what we can do.
Population of North decreased by 15%, so let's do the same here:
South = 1,064,000
North = 1,785,000
Dead:
North = 365,000
Now, and overall decrease in numbers will likely even that out: meaning a higher % of the military, but
EDIT...
Bugger, gotta run. Extract what you will.
The rest to come later!