LOVE TY NEIGHBOR - a Conrand wait spin-off

Well, this (at least in the intention and i take full responsability for any error, mistake and idiocy) is an add to Wiking TL Conrand waits and depicts how Italy view and reacts to the earth shattering event around her.

and so without further ado we begin.

The first half of the decade was full of important events for Italy:

- A colonial war against one of the oldest empire of Europe and Asia for a place in the sun and an ocean of sand ridden of rebels
- A serious slowdown of the economy.
- The rising of political extremism due to the perception that the liberal state failed at addressing the various problem of society.

So many believed that what the country needed was a period of calm and introspection so to adress her internal problem and digest the newly conquered land, unfortunely history had others plan.
The 28 June 1914 in Sarajevo, the archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir apparent of the empire and his wife (plus the governor of Bosnia Oskar Potiorek) were killed by a Serbian bomb in Sarajevo so starting the July crisis and the deflagration of the Great War.
Italy as a member of the Triple Alliance was expected to enter the war at the side of Germany and Austria-hungary but the Italian government lead by Antonio Salandra (and with the very experienced marquis of San giuliano as foreign minister) decided to remain neutral giving as reason the defensive nature of the alliance and the fact that her others allies had not informed the italian authorities of their intention towards Serbia if not at the very last minute and even in this case only partially. Except some rather surprised and seemligly furios reaction by the some members of the Austro-Hungarian government (rumors said that the description of the King of Italy done by the Kaiser after reading the comunication of the decision to maintain neutrality was not very kind), everyonelse in Berlin and vienna expected this move, both for military reason (the war in libya seriously depleted the italian army supplies) and political as the relantionships between italy and the a-h empire as increasily worsened in the last ten years for a great numbers of reason, ranging from italy claim on austrian land and the general right of the italian minority to the respective sphere of influence in the balkans, the fact that the just killed heir of throne was perceived as anti-italian and the current chief of staff of the Austro-hungarian armed forces Franza graf Conrad von Hotzendorf hate italy almost at pathologycally level, even proposing a preventive war against the supposed ally in at least two occasion. For this reason Count Berchtold, the Austrian foreign minister, decided to keep Italy out of the loop till the last moment regarding the intention of Vienna towards Serbia, as was feared that the Italians had demanded immediately somekind of compensation.
In this very difficult situation, even if in many Italian military and political circles there were a great propensity to support the triple, the majority of the politicians and in general the population was very cold and ambivalent towards them.

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Antonio Salandra - Presidente del Consiglio allo scoppio della Grande Guerra

Internally this decision sparked a heated and frequently violent debate between the interventionists (who greatly supported the Entente cause) and the neutralist (the great majority) who monopolized the political and social scene of Italy for a year. this strange situation created an awkward neutralist alliance between the liberals of giolitti, the great majority of the socialist (who faced a schism between the revolutionaries/interventionist like mussolini on one side and the neutralist), and the catholics, not counting many businessmen who cleary envisioned the possibility to commerce with both side; the most important figure in their side was Giovanni giolitt the great old man of the italian politcs himselfs.
Giolitti reasoning for keeping italy out of the war, was that he greatly believed that this conflict was destined to last years and a country like italy with is limited industry and great dependance to import was ill equipped to fight, so he viewed this occasion as an opportunity for the nation to gain something (or in his opinion precisely what was rightly hers by treaty) with little effort except the flexing of some diplomatic muscle; naturally his historical support for the triple alliance and having lost trust in the capacity of the Italian military after the war with the ottoman empire really helped. One must note that Giolitti in many occasion and in different contest, declared that ‘even if he was for neutrality, he was not for neutrality at any cost or without compensation’
From the beginning this eterogenous group faced an increasily ferouciusly hostile political and media campaign waged by their adversaries (with great financial support of the entente), even them a coalition of very different interest formed by socialist revolutionary, repubblicans and nationalis, chiefs among this group the nationalist poet gabriele d’annunzio and the socialist journalist Benito Mussolini.
Many of the have a plethora of reason for wanting Italy enter the war; some see the conflict as a prelude for an armed revolution destined to overthrow the bourgeoisie (mainly the socialist but even a great numbers of nationalist and anarchist were of this opinion), others instead see this as the perfect occasion to destroy the historical enemy of Italy and finally end the struggle started in the Risorgimento, liberate the Terre irredente and finally unite all Italy, or the more pragmatic who feared that a victorious Germany (and Austria-Hungary) and in control of the continent will have treated an Italy who avoided her duty as Ally like an enemy nations. Finally there were the ones who see the war as a mean to achieve glory and forge the national character, and so describing war as the ‘only hygiene of the world’ like Gabriele D’Annunzio and the Futurist Movement.
From a purely military point of view during this time Italy don’t stayed idle as in december, with the permission of the other powers, begin to deploy an expeditionary force in Albania for both humanitarian and strategic reason, as at the time that nation was plagued by the conflict betwee is first King ( Wilhelm of Wied) and his prime minister Essad Pasha, throwing the nation in total disarray; so without a goverment and hit by an outbreak of cholera the tiny balkan country was a very tempting target for Greece ,Serbia or, as thing were developing, for Austria-Hungary; and to prevent this the Italian military occupied first the isle of saseno and later the port of Vlore (so gaining the control of a vital position for controlling the Adriatic); on the other side of the Meditterean the army continued the pacification of Libya but with mixed results as the Senussi revolt (done with some Ottoman help) and the defeat of Brach demonstrated.

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Italian Carabinieri in the isle of Saseno - October 1914

The war initially bringed some hard hit at the italian economy as the emigration (even seasonal) in France was stopped or at least great dimished plus the general augmented difficulty in importing resources due to the war; at the same time the government begin to increase the reserve of grain and others strategic materials, it even started the issue of national bond at very profitable terms for the buyers and with much fanfare (they were the first that a woman can buy without her husband permission).
The neutralist front faced a great loss with the death of the marquis of San Giuliano the 16 October of 1914 and with Salandra keeping pro-tempore the role of foreign minister and taking over the negotiation with the Triple Alliance, at least till a proper substitute (who will be Sidney Sonnino) was chosen. The inexperience of Salandra in this field and the perceived more urgency in closing the talking with the Central Powers due to the string of Austrian victories against Serbia and Russia (and the following rumours, later revealed false, of Russia making a separate peace) bring a fateful decision in Giolitti, earlier he decided to not become involved directly in the negotiation as he thinked that his notorious pro-CP attitude will had created problems at the Italian government, but with the situation in danger to spin out of control he changed idea and put all his political weight beyond this high level negotiation and begin to create a direct line with the Austro-Hungarian government. (1)
This move was seen by Salandra as an insufferable interference in his diplomatic work and more importantly in his secret negotiation with the Entente, but at the moment it was impossible to refuse the ‘help’ of Giolitti as it was greatly favoured by the public and the political clout of the men was so great that only the King himself had the power to make him desist and his majesty was silent on the argument.

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The first national bond issued during the Great War​

(1) – This is the PoD regarding Italy, in OTL Giolitti worked more beyond the scene giving his approval as elder statist to the neutrality policies; he don’t participate at the negotiation because he was worried that Vienna will not give up the maximum possible if him was involved as he was a strong supporter of the alliance with Vienna and Berlin. Here with a better CP performance the sense of urgency is so great that he gives up any qualms and decides to intervene as Salandra is too inexperienced (and not enough flexible) in foreign policy.
 
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INTRIGUE, ANGST AND STUBBORNESS - the Austro-Hungarian and Italian talks of 1914/15 part 2

The death of San Giuliano and the political crisis that created in Italy was basically like put gasoline in a fire in relation to the negotiation with Vienna.
Till this moment the Austro-Hungarian government refused any significant concession, stating that any Italian request greatly worsened the national security of the Empire and so there were impossible to satisfy and repeatedly declare that the Vienna was non interested in any territorial enlargement at the expense of Serbia and the entire invasion was simple a temporary fact and so Italy was not entitled to any compensation. Is without doubt clear that Count Berchtold (A-H foreign minister) was intentioned in stalling any talking due to the hope (almost religious) of the court, that the great victories achieved until now mean that the war was going to ending soon with the Empire triumphant.


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Giolitti defiantly walking on the street of Rome - April 1915

On the other side of the Alps, the sudden change of Foreign Minister and the ‘purge’ of neutralist minister in the government greatly changed the balance of power…but not like the fact that ‘Great old man of politics’ was returning in the arena. The day after announced the ending of his self-imposed retirement Giolitti received the business card of at least 400 deputies of the parliament (out of 500) as a sign of tacit support and sharing the same ideals, meaning that now he had the informal (and theoretical) power to end the current government. So with this endorsement he basically appointed himself for the job of Minister of the Finance (Giulio Rubini, a neutralist, was one of the first victim of this ‘purge’) strong of the support of the great parts of the Parliament and of his great experience; Salandra was not in condition to refuse his ‘help’ especially with the public negotiation with the Triple Alliance dead in the water.
From the first moment there were an enormous clash of personality between Giolitti and Salandra, the former was for keeping neutrality as he the Italian army was not in condition to participate at the conflict (and he lost a great deal of trust in them due to the war with the Ottoman Empire), the nation dangerously dependent of imported resources (almost 90% of the coal come from the United Kingdom) and was convinced that a German (and so Austrian) victory was inevitable but long to come, so trying to getting some concession out of them was the best course of action as after the war Italy opportunities for expanding her sphere of influence or regain the ‘Terre Irredente’ will be minimal if non-existent.
Salandra instead was more bellicose and was ready to enter the war for any of the side, being interested only in who offered the best deal and so from the beginning he begin secret talk with the Entente.
This internal conflict created a schizophrenic policy, at one side finally Italy give at the Hapsburg Empire a clear list of demand for keeping a neutrality favourable to the (now called) Central Powers. This was done essentially by Giolitti who bypassed Sonnino and used all his political favours to become the principal contact with the A-H Empire, gaining so the eternal rivalry and animosity of the official Foreign Minister who begun to wage a fierce, but in the end futile, battle to regain the control of the negotiate as the newly nominated Finance minister had the mean to cause the fall of the government and the only one who can possibly stop him, namely the King, was strangely silent on the overall situation.
Salandra and Sonnino at the same time were talking with the representatives of the Entente regarding the possibility of Italy entering the war at their side and what compensation was entitled in that case.



POLITICAL TURMOIL AND PROPAGANDA…THE POLITICAL CLIMATE IN THE COUNTRY

Even if the nation was neutral in the war that was wrecking the continent, she was not entirely peaceful as the debate between the interventionist and the rest of the population was becoming more violent and radicalized every day that passed.
By the end of December in Milan was formed a National League for coordinate the effort of the various radical and interventionist association and promote their idea among the public; 10 days after the foundation of the League their manifesto was published and among the signs there were even a couple of senators and deputies.
A month later also in Milan took place the first national convention of the ‘Fasci nazionali interventisti’ a political association who was growing very fast in all Italy and was led by the journalist Benito Mussolini now editor of the Secolo d’Italia and a former socialist who left the party due to the official stance of favouring the neutrality (popular rumours and some proof indicated that Mussolini and his newspaper, among many others, received some money from the Entente.), and the 6 of April even Peppino Garibaldi, leader of the Italian volunteers corps in France (recently disbanded due to combat loss) offered his unconditionally support for their cause.
The entire nation was so focused on this debate over the her future that not even the Marsica earthquake who devastated the city of Avezzano and caused 30.000 deaths distracted the attention of the people for long time.
Soon the fight was carried not only with words but with fist, iron and wood; with the increasing numbers of act of political violence mining the public order, like the riot in Reggio Emilia the 17 January 1915 who caused 1 death and numerous wounded. Soon after that the government decided to limit the right of public reunion as a mean to stop the escalation of violence but in the end the results were limited and all the possible advantage were far outstripped by the general condemnation of this law by journals and the political association. Peculiar was the position of the Catholics, as their continuous support for maintain a neutral stance needed to be always purged by any overtly religious motivation or papal influence so to not be suspected to harbour treasonous feeling, as the situation between the Italian state and the catholic church even if greatly improved was still problematic.
In general the interventionist camp even if smaller was the best in using the media and in organize meeting and manifestation, making his voice know in all the nation, especially when the 20 March from is self-imposed exile in France ( due to financial matters) returned Gabriele D’Annunzio famed poet and nationalist (and a master propagandist). Immediately the atmosphere become more heated, in Rome and other important cities pro-war manifestation become almost daily and the situation worsened. In Rome the 12 of April during one of this political meetings D’Annunzio, who always spit harsh word towards Giolitti fomented the crowd to assault the home of the politician; by change the Minister was absent as the carabinieri assigned for protection were overwhelmed by protesters and the home razed; after that the people begun to sing praising of Salandra and Sonnino and directed their scorn to the Austro-Hungarian Embassy but luckily here the only violence was that of the words. Every day the figure of Giolitti become the lightning rod for the interventionist rage, the embodiment of all was wrong in the nation, of the cowardly of the ruling class, of the provincialism, of the decadent liberalism who had transformed the country in a corpse that only the fire of the war can clean and revive.

A NEW PLAYER

Due to the increasing difficulties of the negotiation, the German government dispatched Prince Bernhard Von Bulow, a former chancellor and married with an Italian, to help the two sides in reaching an accord. The German diplomat arrived in Rome the 18 December 1914 and the next day had the first encounter with Sonnino (and later a private one with Giolitti). The two statesmen (but with different undertone of urgency) firmly declared that Italy desired remaining neutral but only if given the compensation entitled to her by the Art. VII of the Triple Alliance Treaty, in the end what Italy asked was a cession of Trentino, a protectorate over Albania, a revision of the border in Venezia-Giulia and the autonomy for the city of Trieste and in general for the Italian minority, both politicians made very clear that a declaration of war (even among rumours of a Russian separate peace) was the more probable outcome for the failure of this talking.
The intromission of the German diplomat was considered an outrage by the Austro-Hungarian government; especially when Von Bulow supported the idea of satisfy some of the Italian request, a possibility utterly refused by Vienna and who caused the dismissal of Minister Count Berchtold at the end of December, when he proposed to concede some territory to the Italians; his substitute Baron Burian basically bring back to square one the negotiation as he opposed a staunch refusal at any of the Italian proposal and even protest the occupation of Vlore and the Dodecanese islands by the Kingdom of Italy and demanding compensation for that.
Von Bulow presence was so insufferable for the Hapsburg that the heir of throne himself was sent to explain the reason of Austria impossibility of satisfy the Italian requests due to the importance of Trieste and the fear that any concession will encourage Romania (another neutral nation with similar territorial claim) to demand the same treatment. Germany answered suggesting giving some minor concession to Austria-Hungary as compensation and keeping the diplomatic pressure on both parties to conclude the talks in a positive manner, as Berlin was not keen to add a new front to the war also Italy was viewed as a possible important leak in the blockade.
The continued refusal of Burian to concede anything, brought Von Bulow in asking Sonnino if some others territory will have satisfied Italy (he declared that the Ottoman islands under current occupation can be kept and hinted heavily at the possession of Tunisia at war won) but the Presidente del Consiglio Cleary stated that his position was not changed and that obtain the just compensation was vital not only for the surviving of his government but of the Monarchy itself.
By the middle of February the preliminary talking with the Entente has begun, with very positive results, a development that soon comes to the Central Powers ears.
Between the continuous political pressure from her northern neighbour, the growing fear that a war with Italy was a serious possibility (an event that many A-H politicians and generals were in the end not contrary) due to the various warning and the military necessity of the planned invasion of Serbia created a little breakthrough in the talking; so the 18 March 1915 Baron Burian finally concede some parts of Trentino (Trent included) to be handed over after the war and with some monetary compensation for Vienna, in exchange of a benevolent neutrality and the drop of any other claim by Italy regarding compensation plus some promise of post-war far-reaching advantages , but Albania and the Dodecanese Islands were not included and at the end of the war the Italian troops need to be retired.
Naturally the entire Salandra government refused this term, as this put the nation at risk of British economic retaliation for just a strip of land, legends say that Salandra comment was much less diplomatic and utterly unrepeatable in any diplomatic circle or even a brothel.
The week after this initial concession, Prince Von Bulow (in concert with Giolitti) worked feverishly to mend the difference between the two side, with daily message and encounters with ambassadors and the Presidente del Consiglio in a whirlwind of proposal and counter-proposal and so keeping the talking going and put the point of the moment of transfer in hold, at least for a little time. Meanwhile for the Italians a sense of greater urgency was perceived due to the string of German victories against the Russian and the possibilities of them making a separate peace (later revealed as utterly wrong); if the the two Germanic powers don’t thought necessary for their war effort the neutrality of Italy, the nation will have only a mean to get is ‘place in the sun’ and in that every member of the government was on the same page, so it was decided to try to meet the Austrian on middle-ground if necessary .The proposal of the 26 of the same month done by the Austrian government in the end give to Italy what asked and even if the next couple of weeks were occupied in smooth out the details and some important parts, like the amount of money requested (in the end the decision was postponed to an ad hoc post-war commission), the status of Trieste, the exact definition of the border and more vital the moment of the implementation of the treaty (after much discussion, debate and broken pact and friendships was decided to accept the end of hostilities as a date), for this Italy accepted to maintain a benevolent neutrality towards the Central Powers in political and economic matters but a complete one in military situation, also the Italian goverment will give free hand in the Balkans and Russia to the Austro-Hungarian Empire and will not seek out other compensation in case of further gain by the latter; vital to this was the public aspect of the treaty and the personal assurance of Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany and his government that will be honoured.
Ironically this was the easy part, now the Italian political class was alone in deciding if they can trust the Austrian; it was a very important question, the relationships between the two nations where strained even before the begin of the hostility and the anti-Italian sentiment of many higher-ups in the Austrian government was known and post-war some diplomatic letters were found where the Austrian ambassador in Rome and some others nobles probed the German government regarding the possibility of renege this pact after achieving victory (no answer was ever found) . Regarding this aspect, Giolitti in various hearings with the King candidly admitted that this event was a strong possibilities, but even in this case some others concession could be obtained (almost surely at the expense of the losers) and there were little more short of war that can be done, adding with little cynicism that he hoped for a long war so that even the victors were too exhausted to renege any pact. The fierce debate about signing or not the treaty or become a member of the Entente was brief but terrible (by now rumours were too persistent to be easily dismissed) and so the final struggle between Salandra and Giolitti.

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I am confused? This means what exactly:

The proposal of the 26 of the same month done by the Austrian government in the end give to Italy what asked and even if the next couple of weeks were occupied in smooth out the details and some important parts, like the amount of money requested (in the end the decision was postponed to an ad hoc commission post-war), the status of Trieste, the exact definition of the border and more vital the moment of the implementation of the treaty (after much discussion, debate and broken pact and friendships was decided to accept the end of hostilities as a date), for this Italy accepted to maintain a benevolent neutrality towards the Central Powers in political and economic matters but a complete one in military situation; vital to this was the public aspect of the treaty and the personal assurance of Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany and his government that will be honoured.

That A-H is actually giving up land, or that some commission will be formed afterward to give Italy A-H best and only real port?
 
I am confused? This means what exactly:

The proposal of the 26 of the same month done by the Austrian government in the end give to Italy what asked and even if the next couple of weeks were occupied in smooth out the details and some important parts, like the amount of money requested (in the end the decision was postponed to an ad hoc commission post-war), the status of Trieste, the exact definition of the border and more vital the moment of the implementation of the treaty (after much discussion, debate and broken pact and friendships was decided to accept the end of hostilities as a date), for this Italy accepted to maintain a benevolent neutrality towards the Central Powers in political and economic matters but a complete one in military situation; vital to this was the public aspect of the treaty and the personal assurance of Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany and his government that will be honoured.

That A-H is actually giving up land, or that some commission will be formed afterward to give Italy A-H best and only real port?

No the commission is only for decide the amount of money (who rapresent the part of public debt hold by the territory ceded) Italy need to give to A-H for the getting Trentino. The status of Trieste is for the next update...but is out of question for A-H to giving up the city this is more about local and cultural authonomy like founding an university and the protection of the italian culture and minority.
 
No the commission is only for decide the amount of money (who rapresent the part of public debt hold by the territory ceded) Italy need to give to A-H for the getting Trentino. The status of Trieste is for the next update...but is out of question for A-H to giving up the city this is more about local and cultural authonomy like founding an university and the protection of the italian culture and minority.

So they are not getting South Tyrol just Trentino with possibly more autonomy for Trieste?
 
Thanks for this information on the Italian "soul" at the start of WWI.

Teh question is : will the Entente be happy about Italian neutrality or will the "apply" some pressure to revise this decision?

If I understand your post correctly the Italians fear that Russia drops out of the war and Germany and Austria will defeat the Entente on the Western front? Thus Itaky will get NOTHING if they don't act (commit to neutrality) quick? So they get a worse deal than they could?
 
Thanks for this information on the Italian "soul" at the start of WWI.

Thanks for the comment and i hope to have done a good work

Teh question is : will the Entente be happy about Italian neutrality or will the "apply" some pressure to revise this decision?

Happy? Absolutely not, Italy neutral really complicate any blockade and they really love it to add pressure to A-H, regarding what can apply as mean of persuasion is difficult, sure with Italy really dependendent by import some heavy handed move can be done...on the other side this can bring Italy directely at the side of the CP and against the Entente and Italy is still the lesser of the great power not Norway or Netherlands so none of the Allied higher-up want to add another front in an already bad situation. Said that things will not be totally smooth or quiet.

If I understand your post correctly the Italians fear that Russia drops out of the war and Germany and Austria will defeat the Entente on the Western front? Thus Itaky will get NOTHING if they don't act (commit to neutrality) quick? So they get a worse deal than they could?

Basically yes, the rumours of Russia go for a separate peace happen in OTL...here with more justification and A-H more succesfull performance mean that there is less trust in an Entente victory...and Giolitti is directely involved in the negotiation process and so they accept the deal so to get somenthing. If worse than OTL is difficult to say as everybody knows that were limit at what the A-H can give, in reality the biggest problem was the trust issue between Rome and Vienna, here the italians try the risk of sign with the CP as the Entente don't seem too strong and Giolitti (and many others) think that at least there will be the possibility to obtain other compensation instead of the one of the treaty if Vienna renege (and frankly he really hope for a long war so level the field a little).
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Treaty Recap: Just to make sure I read it right.

1) Signed March 26th, 1915. Secret Treaty?? Assume Entente know its negotiations failed. Do Ottomans know they are getting Rhodes back?

2) Some cash to Austria at end of war by commission for small concession in South Tyrol and other symbolic things.

3) While Italy will pull out of Islands and Albania for duration of war, the free hand in Balkans means Italy can take all/parts of Albania or Greece if strong enough. Along with anything else in Africa that Italy is strong enough to take. Assume implied promise of Germany will try to make France "sell" Tunisia to Italy post war.

benevolent neutrality towards the Central Powers in political and economic matters but a complete one in military situation

4) On this item, it sounds like free trade to A-H and Germany except for clear contraband items like guns and bullets. So you can send canned meat, leather, civilian boots, lead, etc but not bullets, helmets and combat boots. Does this sound about right? At least for the initial position before the UK responds.
 
Thanks for the clarification, that makes a lot of sense considering A-H is doing better.

There is a lot the Entente can promise/give Italy if they become really desperate, so technically Italy has great leverage. Get a short-term deal now, and if the war runs long they can get a better deal from the Central powers or the Entente might come back with a crazy offer (Tyrol, Trieste, Dalmatia, maybe Malta, maybe Tunisia, etc...).

In regards to trade, though the U.K. can try to play hard ball with coal. However, considering the cost of the war, using Italy as a source of hard curreancy should be something that they need to keep.

Thanks again.
 
1) Signed March 26th, 1915. Secret Treaty?? Assume Entente know its negotiations failed. Do Ottomans know they are getting Rhodes back?

No, the 26 is the final proposal of Burian, the treaty will be signed a couple of week later, before the effective signing something must happen. Strangely the Treaty was mean to be public...as a measure to make A-H later comply, so the Entente will really know that the negotiations are gone pear-shape. The Ottomans will getting back Rhodes...the day of never if for Italy; Germany, as usal, is very generous with the propriety of others so she offered to get along with Italy keep it and make the Ottoman be happy for that (yes even this is OTL).

2) Some cash to Austria at end of war by commission for small concession in South Tyrol and other symbolic things.

More a very burocratic division of the state debt of Trentino when is (if) handed to Italy, South Tyrol is a German land and so out of any negotiation; some symbolic gesture towards italian national culture and identity and some border adjustment in Friuli and Albania...basically more or less what was offered OTL
3) While Italy will pull out of Islands and Albania for duration of war, the free hand in Balkans means Italy can take all/parts of Albania or Greece if strong enough. Along with anything else in Africa that Italy is strong enough to take. Assume implied promise of Germany will try to make France "sell" Tunisia to Italy post war.

Tunisia is more a 'wink wink nod nod' thing among diplomats and frankly many in Italy suspect that this will be what effective Italy will get after the war as a compensation instead of the A-H land. Italy in the Balkans will keep his position aka Vlora and the Dodecanaese and will not expand, Albania will be transformed in a 'protectorate' after war, regarding Greece well it's complicated due to the overlapping interest in Albania so things can become nasty, but much depends if Greece will remain neutral. For now Italy is occupied with the pacification of Libya and some police action in Somalia, after well some purchase of territory in Africa can be done, the wild card is Ethiopia, during this period was in turmoil and some incident can spiral out of control and without the War the Italian goverment can have less probelm in holding out the troops.


4) On this item, it sounds like free trade to A-H and Germany except for clear contraband items like guns and bullets. So you can send canned meat, leather, civilian boots, lead, etc but not bullets, helmets and combat boots. Does this sound about right? At least for the initial position before the UK responds.

Correct, money is sweets but is not worthy a declaration of war by the British
 
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Deleted member 1487

Thanks for the clarification, that makes a lot of sense considering A-H is doing better.

There is a lot the Entente can promise/give Italy if they become really desperate, so technically Italy has great leverage. Get a short-term deal now, and if the war runs long they can get a better deal from the Central powers or the Entente might come back with a crazy offer (Tyrol, Trieste, Dalmatia, maybe Malta, maybe Tunisia, etc...).

In regards to trade, though the U.K. can try to play hard ball with coal. However, considering the cost of the war, using Italy as a source of hard curreancy should be something that they need to keep.

Thanks again.

And Italy can wait to see both sides get militarily weaker from casualties, so they can hop in later if the want and it will be easier, especially if they are getting their military more prepared.
 
I would think thatA-H will be "changed" after the war. Not necessrily for the worse, but it will never be the same.

Realistic Options IMHO are

Polish Galicia will be part of a "Habsburg" Polish Kingdom

Serbia annexed (but many serbs will be either dead or flee the country)

Montenegro might be annexed too...

Trient goes to Italy (but if this is a clear win for the CPs Italy might be "punished" later for not fulfilling its part in the Dreibund (this was dead long before 1914 IMHO, but you know the victor writes history ;))

OTOH - if its a long war the Double Monarch might diintegrate to a certain degree (more Confederation of independent Nations with common head of state) - Hungary might or might NOT be part of this. Romania might get "spoils" if Hungary opts out (IIRC FranzFerdinand was no fan of Hungary).

But that all is idle speculation atm...
 
I would think thatA-H will be "changed" after the war. Not necessrily for the worse, but it will never be the same.

It's a cliche (limiting the talking to nation naturally) but in a war of this scale, is not important if you win or lose...you will be changed, as in OTL all partecipants suffered from instability afterward some less and some more and surely the taste for another round and for nationalism was greatly diminished. IMHO the real battle will be the postwar when every nation will stop and face the consequence of their action.
 
Well, if the CP wants to go the route of the Entente, then they could always promise the territory of their enemies, in this case, Tunisia(already mentioned) and possibly Savoy, or maybe Nice and possibly Malta and Corsica. IMO the Entente will always have the upper hand in these kinds of secret/semi-secret negotiations as they were always promising the moon to any and everyone they thought could help, which is probably why they ended up with around 15 countries on their side.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well, if the CP wants to go the route of the Entente, then they could always promise the territory of their enemies, in this case, Tunisia(already mentioned) and possibly Savoy, or maybe Nice and possibly Malta and Corsica. IMO the Entente will always have the upper hand in these kinds of secret/semi-secret negotiations as they were always promising the moon to any and everyone they thought could help, which is probably why they ended up with around 15 countries on their side.

Italy was totally dependent on British coal, so couldn't join the CPs even if they wanted to. They were also very vulnerable to naval interdiction, which with the French fleet totally based in the Mediterranean, which outnumbered the Italian navy, coupled with the British Mediterranean fleet made Italy very vulnerable in a war against the Entente.
German coal could not have supplied Italy, mainly because the Alpine passes in 1914 were not developed enough to handle the amount of trains necessary. Also Germany didn't have enough for herself as the war went on and they needed to support A-H with coal at the same time, so adding Italy into the mix is not viable for the CPs.

So the choice is between Italy joining the Entente or staying neutral. Joining the CPs is not an option except right before the Entente is about to lose.
 
What Wiking said.

I would not consider the situation at sea as bad as wiking painted it - If you add up the Italian and A-H fleets you get a nice advantage over the French. - evne if you don't count in the Goeben (would be ´needed in the Black Sea)

This would draw British ships to the Med an possibly prevent or delay Gallipoli (not a bad thing for the Entente ;))

But I think Italys best interest is a benevolent neutrality to Britain (coal imports might go down nonetheless - or Britain might demand higher prices...)

THe Entente might be tempted to promise Italy French/Brit territory (Nice, Tunesia, Fessan, Somalia ?) for Italys entrance in the war (OTL A-H Territory was enough) - TTL A-H seems to be more scessful with its Italian policy - Though I expect the last word is not said - yet...
 
ENDGAME

During the entire time Italy negotiated with her ‘official’ allies about her status in the current conflict, Sonnino and Salandra (with the silent and unofficial blessing of the King) held secret talking with the Entente regarding the possibilities of entering the war at their side and what kind of compensations this entitled.
This meetings were kept secrets from both the public opinion and the parliament and even at part of the Italian government (due to the continuing fight between Salandra and Giolitti) but they did not goes totally unnoticed and some rumours begun to circulate in the diplomatic circles and in some journals; even if not considered totally reliable this news with some subtle hint by Giolitti and others sympathetic Italians contact made Count Bertchtold begin to consider conceding something; a decision who will cost him his job as Foreign Minister and the appointment of Baron Burian in his place, in a move who almost derailed.

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Prince Von Bulow whose negotiating skills were indispensable

If initially the proposal of the Allies at Sonnino was the concession of Trent, Trieste but not much of Istria and Dalmatia and some promise of colonial compensation, by early 1915 both London and Paris, due to the lacklustre performance of the Russian and Serbian army, were ready to concede to Italy basically all her demands (even if many were in opposition with the Serbians and with some feeble opposition of the Russian and some French politicians) and there were even some proposal to give at the Italians a loan at very favourable terms so to finish to re-equip the army (that after some objection of Sonnino about the time of a possible Italian intervention, due to this problem)
At the same time, the Entente begin to discretely support, both financially and politically, the interventionist especially people like D’Annunzio and Mussolini hoping with their aid to finally conquer the heart and mind of the Italian population, so a battle of sensationalist articles about the Rape of Belgium and the Italian place on the sun against Parecchio of Giolitti (referring to the supposed compensation of the CP) and the catholic and socialist moral and political stance against the war.
A particular attention must be given to the antagonism and rivalry between the two soul of the government who was basically a miniature version of what was happening in the nation, basically the President, the Foreign Minister will not speak with the Finance Minister and half of Senate and Parliament, the general work of the public administration was blocked by this infighting with only the armed forces under Cadorna, who already despise the politicians and usually simply ignore them whenever he can, continuing their effort to return to a combat ready status; not counting the tolerance by the authorities of the act of violence perpetrated by the supporter of both causes.
All this manoeuvring, posturing and backstabbing come to an end in March when the talk with Entente were in the final stage and at the same time the Austrian made the last offer to Italy
It was the 29 March, three days after the Austrian proposal, that Giolitti and the rest of the parliament were officially informed of the other negotiation and how advanced they were, and this only because the more vocal neutralist in the government protested vehement against the lack of any answer by Salandra, in a moment when time was so vital.
There are many stories of fistfight in the hall between deputies and senators, regardless of the age and political affiliation, some even true, but nothing is known about what exactly the two leader of opposite side said to each other in a private meeting just after the disclosure of the news.
Salandra with is political position weakened and trying to gain more support from both the King and parliament decided to give is resignation, basically giving the King an ultimatum regarding his consent about the Treaty with the Entente, if he don’t accepted his act or give at him again the appointment as Presidente del Consiglio the King formally endorse the diplomatic move and so finally be free of any kind of interference by old style political meddler. As the monarch had legally great autonomy and many prerogative regarding foreign policy, and as many sources indicated he already demonstrated is support for the treaty a move like the one of Salandra had the potential to create an open rift between Monarchy and elected government in a fragile and chaotic moment of history, for this reason Giolitti (and many others) were not eager to openly go against Vittorio Emanuele III and so when at the former was offered the role of Salandra he initially ask for some time for decide, another reason for not accepting the top spot was to not giving at the Austrian any impression of retire their proposal or request some others concession as he was seen as a staunch neutralist and leaning towards Germany, so his credential as tough negotiator in this case was diminished. In one of this rare moment of history where the single decision of a lone man can stir the destiny of an entire nation Giovanni Giolitti, after having realized that none of the others candidate will have the capacity or the desire to continue in full his neutralist policy and with the chagrin of the King (some unsubstaited rumours even says that he menaced to abdicate) , accepted the appointment as President of the Council of Ministry of the Kingdom of Italy, so the 8 April 1915 the fifth Giolitti government was born
Just three days later in what Gabriele D’Annunzio call the ‘Bleak days of April’ Italy signed the Treaty of Venice who formalized the relationships between the Kingdom of Italy, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the German Empire. The overall reaction of the population was positive and in support of this decision even if the signing was the signal for a series of riots instigated by the interventionist in protest of this act of cowardly and against that traitor of Giolitti as D’Annunzio described him.
Even if short lived the violent protest caused much damage and public disorder in Milan, Turin, Naples and Palermo plus some score of others cities, fortunately the massive use of police and in some case the use (or at least the tolerance) of groups of socialist enforcers against the rioters greatly limited the spread of the revolt and the overall damages, among the arrested in relation of this event were Gabriele D’Annunzio and Benito Mussolini whose liberation soon become a cause celebre.

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TREATY OF VENICE - 11 April 1915

Article I. In compliance with the wish expressed by Italy to
take possession of those parts of Tyrol, the inhabitants of which
are of Italian nationality, Austria-Hungary accepts a new boundaryline
which shall diverge from the present frontier near the Zufallspitze
and shall follow for a distance the frontier between the districts
of Cles on the one side and those of Schlanders and Meran
on the other, i.e., the watershed between the Noce and the Adige
as far as the Illmen-Spitze. It shall lead to the west of Proveis,
so that this district shall remain a part of the Austrian Tyrol, and
then join the Torrente Pescara and follow the latter's course
up to its mouth in the Noce. It shall follow the course of the
Noce as far as south of Tajo, then ascend the Corno di Très, follow
the northern boundary of the district of Mezzolombardo and join
the Adige to the south of Salurn. It shall ascend the Geiersberg,
follow the watershed between the valleys of the Avisio and the
Adige, crossing the Castion toward the Nornspitze and Mount Comp.
It shall then turn southward, describe a semi-circle, leaving the district
of Altrei in the Austrian Tyrol and ascend up to the pass of
San Lugano. It shall follow the boundary between the districts of
Bozen and Cavalese, i.e., the watershed between the valley of the
Aviso and that of the Adige, and extend to Latemar across the
Cima di Rocca and the Grimm-Joch. From the Carnon pass it shall
descend to the Avisio, cut across that river between the districts of
Moena and Forno and ascend again toward the watershed between
the valley of San Pellegrino to the north and that of Travignolo
to the south. It shall rejoin the present boundary to the east of the
Cima di Bocche.

Article II. Austria-Hungary further agrees to cede to Italy the island of Pelagosa and
the territories on the west bank of the Isonzo, as far as their population
is of pure Italian nationality.
Starting at the mouth of the Isonzo (Sdobba) the boundary
shall follow the course of that river upstream beyond the town
of Gradisca, which will be included in the territory ceded to Italy.
Above Gradisca it shall depart from the Isonzo and it will then turn to the northwest toward Medea
And meet the Judrio the course of which will continue to be the boundary line.
Article III. The title of Imperial Free City shall be conferred
on the city of Trieste. It will have a university and receive a
new municipal regulation which, while maintaining its present full
autonomy, will beside insure the Italian character of that city.
of the Italian element shall not be modified.
The present zone of the free city will be maintained and, if
need be, extended.

Article IV. As far as she is concerned Austria-Hungary is prepared to recognizes Italy's unrestricted
sovereignty over Valona and its bay, as well as over the sphere of
interest surrounding it.

Article V. Austria-Hungary proclaim her politica disinterestedtness with regard to Albania within the boundaries of that country drawn by the London Conference.

Article VI. As a certain number of subjects
of Italian nationality will still remain in Austria-Hungary after
the conclusion of this agreement, the Austrian and Hungarian Governments
will devote special attention to safeguard their national interest

Article VII. All natives of the territories thus ceded to Italy
who, for political or military reasons, have been condemned or are
being prosecuted will be set free immediately and a general amnesty
will be granted.

Article VIII. Italy undertakes to maintain absolute neutrality
toward Austria-Hungary and Germany and Turkey as long as this
war lasts.

Article IX. Italy declares her disinterestedness in any territorial or other
advantage that might accrue to Austria-Hungary as a result either of
the present military operations or of the treaties of peace that shall
mark their end.

Article X. On her part, Austria-Hungary waives
any claim to be based on the fact of the Italian occupation of the
Dodecanesos.

Article XI. Italy agrees to indemnify all possible claims arising
from the cession to herself of the above-mentioned territories
by the payment of one lump sum. A mixed commission shall be
appointed to define the mode of payment and the amount to be
paid ; in case of disagreement the commission will submit the matter
to the decision of the International Court of Arbitration at The
Hague.

Article XII. Mixed commissions will be appointed on the spot to settle details in connection
with the cession of the territories in question. These commissions
will be authorized to reach decisions that will be submitted
to the ratification of the Governments.

Article XIII. As soon as this agreement will have been concluded,
military persons born in the territories ceded to Italy will be withdrawn
from the fighting lines of the Austro-Hungarian army.

Article XIV. The German Empire undertakes to guarantee
the faithful and loyal execution of this agreement.

Article XV. The Austro-Hungarian Government will issue a solemn
proclamation concerning the territorial cessions immediately after
the conclusion of this agreement.
.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So this is the final Treaty between Italy and her former allies, translating from diplomatic speak Italy will get Trentino (but with a border favorable to A-H in term of defense and after paying at Vienna some monetary compensation), the west bank of Isonzo and the island of Pelagosa and free hand in Albania, Trieste will get some fancy title and cosmetic change but it will remain the same except the presence of an italian university (a big deal at the time). All this is OTL as the Treaty in this form was the final italian draft plus all the change demanded by Vienna (to point out a more strong position)
 
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