Louisiana 2003: Jindal beats Blanco

Let's say that the runoff goes differently, higher GOP turnout pushed by Bush and Rove's national machine. Effects on Katrina are somewhat different of course. But otherwise, let's discuss.
 
Let's say that the runoff goes differently, higher GOP turnout pushed by Bush and Rove's national machine. Effects on Katrina are somewhat different of course. But otherwise, let's discuss.

Bobby's political career is stunted... nobody in power pre katrina was going to come out smelling good after that and nobody, Steven Segal included was really agitating for storm proofing beyond what already existed... maybe Jindal handles himself better and doesn't have his reputation totally destroyed but literally having Ray Nagan on the ground ensures whatever response is going to be pretty crappy, and shit will role uphill and Bobby won't be able to brush it off
 
I'll copy/paste parts of my response from the alternate 2004 thread.

In that case Jindal's career may be pushed forward four years. If the natural swing of the economy still sees it falter in '08, then the GOP still loses, though maybe not as hard, and Jindal, already pressured in '08 and possibly the VP candidate will be encouraged to run if the economy is still weak and a Dem. President vulnerable in '12.

Before forum liberals complain at the fact that RB and I have managed to swing this thread around to something pro-Jindal in fewer than 20 posts (by the way, well done buddy :p) Let me turn that scenario into a general question of who will run in '08?


Meanwhile, assume as RB states that Bush doesn't have Iraq war and bungled Katrina baggage. In that case, having had a role in the Bush administration is far less poisonous ITTL than it was as of early 2008 in ours. While Cheney still would never run, the GOP primaries certainly look more toward capitalizing on the successes of an administration that probably still has approval ratings in the mid-high 50s (before the recession starts). Maybe a run from Mitch Daniels?
In the scenario from that thread, there was no 9/11 and Bush solidly beats Edwards in '04.

Even without that added into the mix, one still has to assume that without a bungled Katrina, Bush's approval ratings aren't quite as bad as they were IOTL. Katrina really highlighted the fiscal mismanagement at all levels of government and though both parties participated, the Republicans took it on the chin. Assuming that Jindal takes charge and sees the job done, and done well in 2005-6, Bush goes through '08 with approval ratings only bad, instead of terrible. Low-mid 40s maybe?
 
Remember what the Democratic strategy was, both then and in 2007: Atwater-wank.

Religious trolling: "is he truly a sincere Catholic?" "Are his Oxford writings anti-Protestant?" Exorcism.

Racial trolling: using "Piyush" in the same way Birthers use "Hussein" about Obama.

Plain childish: "We know he has a brain, but does he have a heart?" That's an actual attack ad quote from 2007.

Now I know it's hard to discuss economic issues with a pro-life Blue Dog and a conservative Republican as the candidates, but I don't think it's hard to avoid allowing your proxies to troll.


Blair: you forget that Nagin partially dragged his foot because of his feud with Blanco, and said feud arose precisely because Nagin crossed party lines to endorse Jindal over Blanco in 2003. So that irritant is removed. This time you have someone in Baton Rouge who does know what the hell they're doing, will tell the President what sort of troops are needed and where instead of saying "anything and everything you've got", etc. Also, Guard is mobilized earlier. Jindal is also much more assertive than Blanco was, and Nagin would be more inclined to listen to him than Blanco.
 
Remember what the Democratic strategy was, both then and in 2007: Atwater-wank.

Religious trolling: "is he truly a sincere Catholic?" "Are his Oxford writings anti-Protestant?" Exorcism.

Racial trolling: using "Piyush" in the same way Birthers use "Hussein" about Obama.

Plain childish: "We know he has a brain, but does he have a heart?" That's an actual attack ad quote from 2007.

Now I know it's hard to discuss economic issues with a pro-life Blue Dog and a conservative Republican as the candidates, but I don't think it's hard to avoid allowing your proxies to troll.


Blair: you forget that Nagin partially dragged his foot because of his feud with Blanco, and said feud arose precisely because Nagin crossed party lines to endorse Jindal over Blanco in 2003. So that irritant is removed. This time you have someone in Baton Rouge who does know what the hell they're doing, will tell the President what sort of troops are needed and where instead of saying "anything and everything you've got", etc. Also, Guard is mobilized earlier. Jindal is also much more assertive than Blanco was, and Nagin would be more inclined to listen to him than Blanco.

Eh, I'm not convinced even with someone competent like Bobby in charge Katrina would be much better handled than OTL... Nagin is a baiter/troll/incompentent who makes the immediate situation difficult...Jindal would be giving requests to a Whitehouse that is a best slow to react and at wost asleep at the wheel... there might be stinging memo's from Jindal to Bush that save his reputation that could find there way to the public eye

but I highly doubt just based on the very very slow rebuilding process, and economic woes that followed that Bobby could avoid not having some of it stick to him.. the ads in 2007 would basically be Bobby didn't adequately prepare us for Katrina... and although unfair, they would stick and he might be stunted and out on his ass
 
I'll copy/paste parts of my response from the alternate 2004 thread.

In the scenario from that thread, there was no 9/11 and Bush solidly beats Edwards in '04.

Even without that added into the mix, one still has to assume that without a bungled Katrina, Bush's approval ratings aren't quite as bad as they were IOTL. Katrina really highlighted the fiscal mismanagement at all levels of government and though both parties participated, the Republicans took it on the chin. Assuming that Jindal takes charge and sees the job done, and done well in 2005-6, Bush goes through '08 with approval ratings only bad, instead of terrible. Low-mid 40s maybe?

Actually Bush's average approval rating was 49% while Clinton's was 55. It did start immediately after 2005 dropping below 50, probably because the Dems got the edge on pushback against Social Security, as Rove admits. If they start in fall of 2004 then Bush might get it through either in the lame-duck for 108 or winter of 109.

mowque: there'll be a hurricane of some sort.

Now for 2008 the experience argument against the Veepship is gone, but the "train wreck" and likelihood of Democratic victory (even with a relatively successful Bush presidency, the 2-term rule) make it a bad idea.
 
I think Jindal is too outspoken for that to stick though. Look at the approach to the oil spill. He was out there early looking to get the job done, making the problems and screw ups plain and obvious for everybody to see and emerged as a hero when it appeared he was the only one doing anything productive with incompetence surrounding him. If the relief efforts are still botched, and Bush goes down, I can't see Jindal going down with it.

EDIT: Okay, then so I'll go with Bush's approval ratings in '08 are down still a bit, in to the 40s from Social security, and lack of enthusiasm in the base regarding immigration reform. Overall, Bush finishes with an average in the low-mid 50s, another Clinton who received mixed reviews in office, but more appreciated afterward. (That is, slightly better than in OTL. "Miss me yet?" is more than just a conservative slogan, and Bush could be a benefit on the campaign trail by '12 and '14, if not '10)

Is there anything in this that keeps McCain from winning the nomination? Daniels might be more viable, but he still runs into the next-in-line rule. Huckabee's compassionate conservatism if anything is more appreciated, meaning he still derails Romney in Iowa.
 
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Even if he ordered a crash rebuilding of the levees on his first day in office (1/15/04, FYI), it wouldn't be ready in time. That's why in many respects this loss was a blessing in disguise.

Regarding memos: expect to see those stinging memos, except to Obama, when his book comes out in 2 weeks. If this thread is still around I'll post them. :cool:
 
I think Jindal is too outspoken for that to stick though. Look at the approach to the oil spill. He was out there early looking to get the job done, making the problems and screw ups plain and obvious for everybody to see and emerged as a hero when it appeared he was the only one doing anything productive with incompetence surrounding him. If the relief efforts are still botched, and Bush goes down, I can't see Jindal going down with it.

I don't think thats a good comparison... people in LA have a deep economic relationship with the oil industry that isn't as likely to bring them into a populist frenzy as Katrina did which was just a strait humanitarian and economic disaster

How much would Bobby be willing to blame Bush if Bush screws up the rescue efforts and rebuilding process (Bush is the party leader after all) how much can he blame Nagin or the NO police department and not come off like a buck passer... I think there is too much in that situation that is out of his hands, but still capable of hurting him and his reputation for that to help his career in anyway
 
I think Jindal is too outspoken for that to stick though. Look at the approach to the oil spill. He was out there early looking to get the job done, making the problems and screw ups plain and obvious for everybody to see and emerged as a hero when it appeared he was the only one doing anything productive with incompetence surrounding him. If the relief efforts are still botched, and Bush goes down, I can't see Jindal going down with it.

If everyone gets evacuated before the storm hits, or at least most of them are, then there's few casualties if any. There were few human casualties from BP, there will be quite a few in a hurricane situation. In that case you're correct. If not then he survives 2007 because of the lack of a credible Democratic opponent (even now, they can't find anyone for next year) but forget about moving up to the national stage at any point.
 
I don't think thats a good comparison... people in LA have a deep economic relationship with the oil industry that isn't as likely to bring them into a populist frenzy as Katrina did which was just a strait humanitarian and economic disaster

How much would Bobby be willing to blame Bush if Bush screws up the rescue efforts and rebuilding process (Bush is the party leader after all) how much can he blame Nagin or the NO police department and not come off like a buck passer... I think there is too much in that situation that is out of his hands, but still capable of hurting him and his reputation for that to help his career in anyway

Not that much. Jindal is partially a Bush protege: remember that he was one of Tommy Thompson's assistant secretaries at HHS in Bush's 1st term, IIRC Bush encouraged him to run in 2003. He's not the sort to trash a fellow Republican, even Vitter with whom he's been quietly feuding for years. I think Nagin would step up to the plate a bit more because he'll have an ally rather than an enemy in Baton Rouge. As for the lawlessness just ask Nagin to request a National Guard deployment earlier than Blanco did.
 
If Jindal can survive Katrina and 2007, he'd be a great candidate for 2012. McCain could potentially have picked Jindal in 2008 but would Jindal really have been ready to board the sinking ship that was clearly going to lose?
 
Re 2008: "train wreck", Democrats sure to win, and insufficient experience. It would be seen (somewhat correctly) as crass ID politics without sufficient software date to divert the inevitable media gaze at the hardware. Plus being literally half McCain's age. McCain really wanted Jindal because of his well-earned reputation as a reformer meshing with McCain's maverick persona, in addition to a personal rapport. Plus, both are great on the talk shows. Newt and Rush (who are both longstanding Jindalistas) were Jindal's biggest backers for the Veepship IOTL. Undoubtedly he'd do an excellent job of it.

Re 2012: youngest presidential candidate since his namesake, and undoubtedly he'd be a very tough opponent for Obama. Equally charismatic, much more fiery than Obama plus would pwn him in the debates. To be safe 2016 would be better, but he'd be out of office for 4 years because Landrieu is only up in '14.
 
I'll agree there, if BW is correct and Jindal is too loyal to his party to rebuke and demand from the President, then Jindal may still win in '07 but his elected career is largely limited to that. Maybe by '14 he can run against Landrieu if everything isn't completely butterflied into confusion.

I still think of his focus on active results during the oil spill. Obviously, the hurricane isn't nearly as much of an opportunity for scoring political points, but assuming he isn't about political points and is about getting a job done, then I think he handles the situation better in many ways. I doubt anybody would have the foresight to see the levees rebuilt on day one, but I do expect there would be better organized evacuation efforts than in OTL.

Meanwhile, one of the criticism of relief efforts was the lack of organized leadership, that left state agencies pointing the finger at the National Guard, and the National Guard giving the finger to the state and local governments. I think Jindal, seeing a lack of organization, would be quick to fill that leadership vacuum with his own presence.

In that case either FEMA is brought into line, or it is the odd man out, and bears the brunt of questions like where is the money. What is taking so long. That possibly still hurts the Bush administration, but I see Jindal going bipartisan and working with Landrieu in going after the agency, if not the President.
 
He could work with Landrieu, though it would reveal to the public his (justifiably) less than cordial relations with Vitter by working with his state's Democratic senator.
 
Re 2008: "train wreck", Democrats sure to win, and insufficient experience. It would be seen (somewhat correctly) as crass ID politics without sufficient software date to divert the inevitable media gaze at the hardware. Plus being literally half McCain's age. McCain really wanted Jindal because of his well-earned reputation as a reformer meshing with McCain's maverick persona, in addition to a personal rapport. Plus, both are great on the talk shows. Newt and Rush (who are both longstanding Jindalistas) were Jindal's biggest backers for the Veepship IOTL. Undoubtedly he'd do an excellent job of it.

Re 2012: youngest presidential candidate since his namesake, and undoubtedly he'd be a very tough opponent for Obama. Equally charismatic, much more fiery than Obama plus would pwn him in the debates. To be safe 2016 would be better, but he'd be out of office for 4 years because Landrieu is only up in '14.

Assuming McCain still wins the 08 primaries, then train wreck still applies, and Jindal stays away... which looks particularly smart when "fundamentals of the economy are strong" happens a couple of weeks later.

Though Jindal isn't in this case an 8 monther, he still has the excuse of being only 8 months into his second term and devoted to Louisiana.

'12 though is a perfect opportunity for him to run, and I think he'd be spending most of '10 trying to gauge Obama's strength and whether he could do it. '16 would still be possible, in the way that Romney is still a top contender today despite being out of office since '06. Jindal is still a stronger candidate than Romney.

If the '12 landscape looks as it does IOTL. Romney with baggage, Gingrich with ridiculously more baggage, Pawlenty with no buzz, and Palin with buzz but thoroughly unelectable, then "Draft Bobby" starts floating around the web in mid-2010 before going full-speed in spring '11. If Jindal wants to avoid the '12 fight, then he will have a difficult time getting past the first half of 2011 without being forced in. Daniels, Thune, and Christie speculation will be severely decreased, particularly with the Palinista approved candidate lacking an excuse not to run.

He could work with Landrieu, though it would reveal to the public his (justifiably) less than cordial relations with Vitter by working with his state's Democratic senator.

Are less than cordial relations with Vitter really that damaging? I'm sure he'd try to bring Vitter aboard, but as Landrieu was more outspoken about the issues, I'd expect he'd work with her...
 
He's a stronger candidate than anyone if he's a two-termer. He equals Palin on charisma/starpower, pwns her on substance. Kills Gingrich on social creds, ethics, youth, Pawlenty you mentioned, Romney on outflanking/healthcare/youth.
 
I'll agree there, if BW is correct and Jindal is too loyal to his party to rebuke and demand from the President, then Jindal may still win in '07 but his elected career is largely limited to that. Maybe by '14 he can run against Landrieu if everything isn't completely butterflied into confusion.

I still think of his focus on active results during the oil spill. Obviously, the hurricane isn't nearly as much of an opportunity for scoring political points, but assuming he isn't about political points and is about getting a job done, then I think he handles the situation better in many ways. I doubt anybody would have the foresight to see the levees rebuilt on day one, but I do expect there would be better organized evacuation efforts than in OTL.

Meanwhile, one of the criticism of relief efforts was the lack of organized leadership, that left state agencies pointing the finger at the National Guard, and the National Guard giving the finger to the state and local governments. I think Jindal, seeing a lack of organization, would be quick to fill that leadership vacuum with his own presence.

In that case either FEMA is brought into line, or it is the odd man out, and bears the brunt of questions like where is the money. What is taking so long. That possibly still hurts the Bush administration, but I see Jindal going bipartisan and working with Landrieu in going after the agency, if not the President.

I don't think any one man, even a gifted organizer could stop the cycle of buck passing, cowardice and incompetence that surrounded Katrina... Bobby would be the only clever voice in the room, surrounded by a lot of people who make a lot of mistakes. He would be compelled to take one for the team, and not dump on Bush who still has YEARS left in office... literally that term of governor, in front of Katrina is a political craphole, its going to screw anyone who comes into it and tarnish them out of any viable career growth... these things exist, I mean look at the budgetary blackhole Obama walked into... sometimes losing and getting to play after the pieces have been picked up is the better game, i would bet 10 bucks in bobby's case that holds true
 
Best case for Jindal in 2003 involves taking two actions:

1. He does an immediate review of city and county hurricane evacuation plans. He finds New Orleans' plan lacking, and works to get a solid plan by that summer. Come 2005, there aren't pictures of school buses in flooded lots; instead, these buses evacuated people north and west. With more people evacuated, the problems on the ground are much less, and you don't get foolish media reporting cannibalism and the like.

2. He takes leadership on fixing the levees in New Orleans. As RogueBeaver said, it wouldn't stop the levees from failing, but having taken the initiative on fixing them ahead of time would make him look prescient and make him look like a leader.

Even without these things, I think his leadership in 2005 would improve the situation on the ground, and I think repairs would have happened faster, closer to what happened in Mississippi.

And, of course, leaving office after a second term in 2011 means he has an entire year to devote to campaigning....
 
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