Louis XVI makes it to Montmedy, what then?

Assume through better planning, luck and a series of improbable coincidences, Louis XVI succeeds in his 1791 escape from Paris to Montmedy, what does he do then and what happens?
 

J.D.Ward

Donor
In an odd way, compared with OTL, this has advantages for both sides.

The Royalists have the legitimate King of France alive and well.

The Republicans take the line that Louis has de facto abdicated, deserting France.

I'm not sure what the long-term effects would be. Are the Vendee uprisings more successful? I suspect that the outcome is little different from OTL, with the restoration of Louis XVI in 1814-15.

However, one idea at the back of my mind is, has Napoleon anything to gain in terms of national unity by restoring Louis as a figurehead King with himself as Minister-in-Chief to the King. Do the characters of Napoleon (in 1805) and Louis allow for this?
 
Montmedy is in France, Louis XVI wanted to go there to gather forces to crush the Republicans so I sort of assumed that he would start a real civil war
 
In an odd way, compared with OTL, this has advantages for both sides.

The Royalists have the legitimate King of France alive and well.

The Republicans take the line that Louis has de facto abdicated, deserting France.

I'm not sure what the long-term effects would be. Are the Vendee uprisings more successful? I suspect that the outcome is little different from OTL, with the restoration of Louis XVI in 1814-15.

However, one idea at the back of my mind is, has Napoleon anything to gain in terms of national unity by restoring Louis as a figurehead King with himself as Minister-in-Chief to the King. Do the characters of Napoleon (in 1805) and Louis allow for this?
Montmedy is a french city since 1659.
 
RamscoopRaider said:
Montmedy is in France, Louis XVI wanted to go there to gather forces to crush the Republicans so I sort of assumed that he would start a real civil war
Actually, he just wanted to put himself and his family in a safer place as he no longer felt secure in Paris. He was also trying to regain the upper hand against the Assemblée Nationale: if he was protected by an army, he was in a better position to negotiate with the Députés. Civil War was the last thing he wanted OTL: there are several occasions he could have ordered his troops to fire on crowds but didn't. One of the things we learned from the later biographies of Louis XVI is that he cared deeply for the hapiness of his people.

That being said, I doubt the Assemblée would take Louis' departure to Montmedy very well. They might declare him deposed and this probably would lead to a Civil War. However, I think this scenario would give the Députés far less support than OTL as the King is still alive and protected by an army. Also, Rural France wasn't very much politicized in the early Revolution and Louis XVI was still very popular in 1791.
 
Interesting, I did not know that

Any other comments please?

Well Louis XVI being in Montmedy could mean several things. A base and a way to legitimize the emigres' actions, who were planning a counterrevolutionary invasion of France. and those opposed to the revolution still inside France. 2nd, it would put the king on a more equal footing when negotiating with the Assemblée Nationale. And 3rd, if necessary, it would make fleeing France for another country much easier.

 
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