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Hilaire Belloc in the 1930 anthology, "If, or History Rewritten" speculated in his short faux history "If Drouet's Cart Had Stuck" that if Louis XVI had escaped across the French border the following knock-ons would occur in the short and long-term. First, an early defeat for the French revolutionaries and restoration of the monarchy. Second, a fairly rapid reduction of reactionary France to the status of British puppet. Third, a medium term advantage to the Habsburg Holy Roman Empire, with its longer term consolidation in Germany and Italy, followed by its eventual unification of all Europe.

What's the plausibility of anything like these near or long-term effects?
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