Louis XVI escapes France, are Belloc's speculations plausible?

raharris1973

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Hilaire Belloc in the 1930 anthology, "If, or History Rewritten" speculated in his short faux history "If Drouet's Cart Had Stuck" that if Louis XVI had escaped across the French border the following knock-ons would occur in the short and long-term. First, an early defeat for the French revolutionaries and restoration of the monarchy. Second, a fairly rapid reduction of reactionary France to the status of British puppet. Third, a medium term advantage to the Habsburg Holy Roman Empire, with its longer term consolidation in Germany and Italy, followed by its eventual unification of all Europe.

What's the plausibility of anything like these near or long-term effects?
 
raharris1973 said:
First, an early defeat for the French revolutionaries and restoration of the monarchy.
That is a likely possibility. All depends on how well the Revolutionnary governement does after Louis XVI escapes and how well the military situation turn in France. That being said, the King in Montmedy would surely weaken the Revolutionnary cause, given the fact Louis XVI was extremly popular.
raharris1973 said:
Second, a fairly rapid reduction of reactionary France to the status of British puppet.
I don't see why the hell France would become a British puppet. Sure, it is in a poor financial state before the Revolution but the situation can be turned around thanks to good management. Also, France is still one of the most powerful states in Europe and the World: you won't reduce it to puppet state that easily. And lastly, Britain and France are the biggest rivals the world has ever known: why the hell would one bow down to the other?
raharris1973 said:
Third, a medium term advantage to the Habsburg Holy Roman Empire, with its longer term consolidation in Germany and Italy, followed by its eventual unification of all Europe.
That the Hapsburg could profit from France being weaken is likely. Still, it will need a lot of work on their part to unfiy the whole HRE, especially if Nationalisms kick in (still a possibility).

As for unifying Europe... Well, I must say that might be a bit too optimistic unless he's planning for very long term.
 
Even when France was crushed after the Napoleonic wars it did not become a british puppet, why would it become one when the revolution is put down? No really Belloc's speculations belong to ASB.
 
I would venture to say that revolutionary france would probably be defeated. Conservative elements in the French army and society would probably not going to fight if the other side flew the tricolour and had the king with them.
 

Dirk_Pitt

Banned
I would venture to say that revolutionary france would probably be defeated. Conservative elements in the French army and society would probably not going to fight if the other side flew the tricolour and had the king with them.

The Kingdom didn't have the tricolor. That was a Republican creation.
 
The execution of the King was what united much of Europe against the revolutionaries. Without it, I doubt the French Republic would suffer the same level of invasion, and if it does not, I do not think Napoleon would rise.

But I also doubt the King will be able to return quickly. Perhaps when the Republican government turns on itself with Robespierre.
 
While the Republicans could only really rely on the support of Paris and the major cities and the majority of the country was Royalist in sentiment remember that Paris and the major cities are what counts. Look at the various 19th century Revolutions. The country kept electing Monarchs and Paris kept successfully overthrowing them.
 
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