Louis XIV doesn't have a male heir: what happens in Spain?

Just an idea I was thinking about: from all the children of Louis XIV only the Dauphin survived to adulthood. However, WI instead of son the only surviving issue of the Sun King were a daughter? Of course, the French throne would pass to the Orleans branch of the family. But what happens in Spain when Charles II dies? IOTL the most legitimate claim (considering only proximity of blood) was the Dauphin, who renounced it in favour of his second son in order to avoid a union of France and Spain that no power in Europe wanted. However, now that the closest relative of Charles II is a female that can't legally unite the Spanish kingdoms with France, would she be accepted as queen? Or would the Habsburgs still try to take Spain for them?
 
Partition treaties would probably favor the Habsburg heir. He came after the Duc d'Anjou, and the Duc de Berri (assuming neither would accept the throne of Spain). I can't really see Louis XIV claiming Spain on behalf of his daughter, by the time Charles II is dead, she is presumably an adult, married off somewhere, with children of her own.

There is also the possibility of the Bavarian heir favored by both France and the Habsburgs not dying at the age of six. The possibility of placing the crown upon Louis XIV's daughter is possible, but I can't seriously see the Great Powers entertaining it.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I'm thinking that things would depend a great deal on the sequence of events. If the Dauphin dies early there is time to plan a succession. France to Orleans with the Madame Royale waiting in the wings should Spain open up. If he lives longer and even sires a few potential heirs less concern will be placed upon the King's daughter's role. Thus when he dies, perhaps followed or preceded by a petit dauphin, the Madame Royale in question may have already married into some dynasty that would be objectionable if seen as inheriting Spain.

Ideally if Louis XIV knew she was likely to inherit Spain he would probably want to marry her to someone French and someone whom he can influence to ensure that Spain becomes a friend to France. Either way there is likely to be some kind of Partition negotiations if not Treaties, there were partition proposals even when the mutually agreeable Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria was the likely candidate. Personally I like the symmetry of reversing the fates of the Le Grand Dauphin and La Petite Madame - Viva Maria Teresa! Maybe she could marry the widowed Elector of Bavaria Maximilian II and we could still get some Spanish Wittelsbachs.
 
I'm thinking that things would depend a great deal on the sequence of events. If the Dauphin dies early there is time to plan a succession. France to Orleans with the Madame Royale waiting in the wings should Spain open up. If he lives longer and even sires a few potential heirs less concern will be placed upon the King's daughter's role. Thus when he dies, perhaps followed or preceded by a petit dauphin, the Madame Royale in question may have already married into some dynasty that would be objectionable if seen as inheriting Spain.

Ideally if Louis XIV knew she was likely to inherit Spain he would probably want to marry her to someone French and someone whom he can influence to ensure that Spain becomes a friend to France. Either way there is likely to be some kind of Partition negotiations if not Treaties, there were partition proposals even when the mutually agreeable Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria was the likely candidate. Personally I like the symmetry of reversing the fates of the Le Grand Dauphin and La Petite Madame - Viva Maria Teresa! Maybe she could marry the widowed Elector of Bavaria Maximilian II and we could still get some Spanish Wittelsbachs.

Yes, I was exactly thinking about La Petite Madame. The most interesting fact about her is that her mother wanted to see Marie-Therese married to her uncle Charles II. If this happens and Le Grand Dauphin dies then we would have a situation where the king's heir would be his own wife. And she would be 33 in 1700, when Charles II died, so she still could remarry and have children.
 
Yes, I was exactly thinking about La Petite Madame. The most interesting fact about her is that her mother wanted to see Marie-Therese married to her uncle Charles II. If this happens and Le Grand Dauphin dies then we would have a situation where the king's heir would be his own wife. And she would be 33 in 1700, when Charles II died, so she still could remarry and have children.

Interesting.
And would Charles and Marie-Therese have had children, thus securing the succession for another generation?
 
Interesting.
And would Charles and Marie-Therese have had children, thus securing the succession for another generation?

Considering that we are talking about "El Hechizado", definitely not. After all, Charles II had four testicles an no one of them worked.:p

In order to secure the succession for another generation Marie-Therese would have to remarry after Charles' death.
 
Considering that we are talking about "El Hechizado", definitely not. After all, Charles II had four testicles an no one of them worked.:p

In order to secure the succession for another generation Marie-Therese would have to remarry after Charles' death.

Ok, who's available for her to marry in 1700?
There doesn't seem to be anyone suitable, Leopold of Lorraine has married Elisabeth of Orleans, Rainaldo of Modena has married a German, The other Habsburgs are Habsburgs ;), possible Leopold's brother Joseph Innocent?

Actually there is Antonio Farnese brother of the Duke of Parma and future Duke himself.
He and his brother had good relations with both the Austrians and the French so it might be good politics.
 
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There's also Ferdinand Charles, the Duke of Mantua. He was probably the most pro-French prince in all of Italy. He lost his throne in 1708. His first wife died in 1703 and they were childless so he might work.
 
Ok, who's available for her to marry in 1700?
There doesn't seem to be anyone suitable, Leopold of Lorraine has married Elisabeth of Orleans, Rainaldo of Modena has married a German, The other Habsburgs are Habsburgs ;), possible Leopold's brother Joseph Innocent?

Actually there is Antonio Farnese brother of the Duke of Parma and future Duke himself.
He and his brother had good relations with both the Austrians and the French so it might be good politics.

There's also Ferdinand Charles, the Duke of Mantua. He was probably the most pro-French prince in all of Italy. He lost his throne in 1708. His first wife died in 1703 and they were childless so he might work.

The problem is that the Habsburgs really didn't want to lose anything that belonged to family, so I wouldn't doubt that the 33 years old Maria Theresa would be married to the 15 Charles of Austria just to ensure a Habsburg succession. Given the historical of interbreeding in the family probably this union would also be childless or produce other sick child as Charles II, and so the sucession would fall on the descendents of Margaret of Spain or there would be a delayed conflict between Bourbons and Habsburgs (if they still exist) between the 1710's and the 1740's.
 
The problem is that the Habsburgs really didn't want to lose anything that belonged to family, so I wouldn't doubt that the 33 years old Maria Theresa would be married to the 15 Charles of Austria just to ensure a Habsburg succession. Given the historical of interbreeding in the family probably this union would also be childless or produce other sick child as Charles II, and so the sucession would fall on the descendents of Margaret of Spain or there would be a delayed conflict between Bourbons and Habsburgs (if they still exist) between the 1710's and the 1740's.

Charles didn't do too bad with his heirs OTL so there'd likely be some children, though I do concede that if they then marry into the family those children will be nonexistent or sick.
However, the marriage only delays things until his brother HRE Joseph dies. The French certainly aren't going to want Spain and Austria reunited!
 
The problem is that the Habsburgs really didn't want to lose anything that belonged to family, so I wouldn't doubt that the 33 years old Maria Theresa would be married to the 15 Charles of Austria just to ensure a Habsburg succession. Given the historical of interbreeding in the family probably this union would also be childless or produce other sick child as Charles II, and so the sucession would fall on the descendents of Margaret of Spain or there would be a delayed conflict between Bourbons and Habsburgs (if they still exist) between the 1710's and the 1740's.

The Duke of Mantua wasn't a Habsburg prior to 1708, though. He was a member of the Gonzaga dynasty. ;)

I think a Bavarian is most likely, though. They were the foremost French allies in Germany as late as the 1740s, and in OTL the Dauphin's wife was Bavarian. So after the death of Charles II, I can see the widowed Marie-Therese marrying into that dynasty. The Wettins might also be likely, since they had recently converted to Catholicism, but I believe they were close to the Austrian Habsburgs so I believe it's out of the question. The French would probably want a marriage to one of the houses of their auxiliary allies, and even if she's 33, I'm sure Louis XIV plays a vital role in seeking out his daughter's second husband.
 
The Duke of Mantua wasn't a Habsburg prior to 1708, though. He was a member of the Gonzaga dynasty. ;)

I think a Bavarian is most likely, though. They were the foremost French allies in Germany as late as the 1740s, and in OTL the Dauphin's wife was Bavarian. So after the death of Charles II, I can see the widowed Marie-Therese marrying into that dynasty. The Wettins might also be likely, since they had recently converted to Catholicism, but I believe they were close to the Austrian Habsburgs so I believe it's out of the question. The French would probably want a marriage to one of the houses of their auxiliary allies, and even if she's 33, I'm sure Louis XIV plays a vital role in seeking out his daughter's second husband.

I think that in the end it would be a Maria Theresa's decision only. She would be the legal absolute Queen of Spain, and would be 33 years old, she wouldn't need to ask anyone about who should be her husband. The problem is to know how her personality would be, if more pro-Habsburg (the family of her mother and her former husband and uncle) or more pro-Bourbon (the family of her father).
 
I think that in the end it would be a Maria Theresa's decision only. She would be the legal absolute Queen of Spain, and would be 33 years old, she wouldn't need to ask anyone about who should be her husband. The problem is to know how her personality would be, if more pro-Habsburg (the family of her mother and her former husband and uncle) or more pro-Bourbon (the family of her father).

Hence Antonio Farnese as a compromise candidate
 
Its gonna be her decision

At 33 it will be her decision...but it will be coloured by the politics and needs of Spain itself. she will likely be counseled by her ministers as well as her Hapsburg and Bourbon relatives. Its likely to be a pro-Hapsburg line, as they will need the Empire as allies to keep the French at bay in both Italy and the southern Netherlands.

The Farnese house would make a good compromise though. It does increase the presence in Italy. the Hapsburg would prefer Karl of course, that would firmly recement the Hapsburg duality in Europe. the French are just going to hate that...but if they go to war... well Spain will be firmly in the Hapsburg alliance not the French....

The english and the Dutch are going to have conniptions though at the potential for a re-emergence of a united Empire. there is likely to be a provision that the Crowns remain separate and that if possible they be inherited by different successors....

Assuming that Karl and Marie-Theresa manage more than one heir...male or female. Joseph of course has a claim on the throne as well so instead perhaps it is agreed he surrender those to the next Hapsburg in line ( though that might have to be through a maternal line which would open another can of worms)...afterall, Joseph was going to do that anyways with Spain. Oh and just for fun who did Joseph's daughter marry again...pragmatic sanction to avoid union of the crowns...allowing his eldest to inherit the Austrian domains supported by Spain....and perhaps the english and the Dutch. this would be before Prussia's warrior King so they might pull it off. Of course, now that I think of it...they will have Maximillian instead...hmmm
 
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Vitruvius

Donor
If we are going to assume that Marie-Therese marries Charles II and has no children by him then we have the following situation develop upon his death in 1700. Marie-Therese gets a nice bump from Queen Consort to Queen Regnant as the heir to her late husband. This probably goes smoothly since it keeps Spain independent and she's already established a power base there. The Archduke Joseph most likely abdicates his claims to his younger brother the Archduke Charles who becomes heir presumptive.

Now I think its reasonable to assume that Marie-Therese is going to be thinking of what is in the best interests of Spain, rather than her parents' dynastic interests. I'm all for her marrying Antonio Farnese (who seems like the best alternative btw) but at this point wouldn't the best course for Spain be for the whole empire to pass intact to the Archduke Charles rather than risk it being partitioned between the Farnese and Habsburgs? A Habsburg marriage seems to be best, maybe after she's had a few years to establish herself. She could even concede the Milan-Lorraine swap that was discussed in the OTL 2nd Partition Treaty as a consolation to France. After all Charles couldn't be worse than the last habsburg she had to marry.

So now we have the reverse: a Queen Regnant whose heir is her King consort. This is all well and good until 1711 when the now Emperor Joseph dies leaving the Archduke Charles as heir to Austria. Now the rest of Europe will start talking about partition treaties and other contingencies to prevent the union of Austria and Spain. What happens next really depends on how many kids she has and what their genders are. Unless there are two young Archdukes/Infantes around things will get tricky.

If Charles doesn't have enough heirs he's going to have to decide pretty quickly which inheritance is more important because he doesn't have the strength to claim both. If he tries anyways the Wars of Spanish and Austrian succession are rolled together. The Electors of Bavaria and Saxony will be waiting in the wings to press the claims of their wives, the daughters of Joseph I. There's really a lot of possible outcomes here. But it will be an interesting war considering that it will involve an established Spanish monarch pressing a claim to Austria. Not to mention the fact that Louis XIV and Anne I may die during the war if it lasts long enough possibly knocking out major players or at least disorienting them with changes in government.
 
So now we have the reverse: a Queen Regnant whose heir is her King consort. This is all well and good until 1711 when the now Emperor Joseph dies leaving the Archduke Charles as heir to Austria. Now the rest of Europe will start talking about partition treaties and other contingencies to prevent the union of Austria and Spain. What happens next really depends on how many kids she has and what their genders are. Unless there are two young Archdukes/Infantes around things will get tricky.

Of course, it alse depends on the butterflies. Just a thought I had: if Marie-Therese is accepted as the legal queen, then the French could say that those treaties that forbade the Spanish princesses who married French kings from inheriting the throne are not valide. If the line of Margaret of Spain still die out (Joseph Ferdinand isn't born, or dies as IOTL, or even his mother do not have children) then, if we follow only primogeniture, then Louis XIV still have a higher claim to the throne than the Habsburgs (as his mother was the eldest daughter of Philip III of Spain). Of course, the French king himself wouldn't be acceptable as the Spanish monarch, so the Bourbon claim would probably pass to the Duke of Orleans. However, Philip of Orleans had only one son, who would also be ITTL the heir of France, so by the male line ITTL there is no way to divide France and Spain between different branches of the family.

The only way to the French push a claim would be accept a female line, and that would be the one from Philip of Orleans' eldest daughter, Marie Louise of Orléans, who IOTL was the wife of Charles II of Spain. As ITTL Marie-Therese became Charles' wife instead, then we would need to think an alternate husband for Marie Louise, as her issue would probably still have a higher claim (only by primogeniture) than the Habsburgs.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
The only way to the French push a claim would be accept a female line, and that would be the one from Philip of Orleans' eldest daughter, Marie Louise of Orléans, who IOTL was the wife of Charles II of Spain. As ITTL Marie-Therese became Charles' wife instead, then we would need to think an alternate husband for Marie Louise, as her issue would probably still have a higher claim (only by primogeniture) than the Habsburgs.

Makes sense to me. You just need to find her a suitable husband. If she doesn't marry Charles II then she could be wed to her sisters OTL husband the Duke of Savoy Victor Amadeus II. That doesn't exactly keep Spain pro-French but then again considering this marriage would likely be contracted in the 1680's or 90's that might not be a consideration. If you must have a Bourbon then perhaps Louis of Bourbon-Conde. In OTL he married one of the legitimised daughters of Louis XIV's mistress Madame de Montespan. Perhaps rather than that socially awkward match he marries Marie Louise. ITTL he would get a bump up to Premier Prince du Sang after the Duc d'Orleans becomes King of France as the Condes will inherit if the Orleans line should fail.
 
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