Louis 2 doesn't drown, his son inherits the PLC- what happens next?

The battle of Mohacs is one of the most pivotal moments of modern history. With the death of Louis II in the rout the Austrian Habsburgs would gain Hungary and Bohemia setting the course for four centuries of Central European politics. Furthermore the death of Louis mean that the Jagellion dynasty would die with his Polish cousins half a cenury later, leading to the formal establishment of the Polish Lithaunian commomnwealth, the rise of the Vasas in Poland, and the dissolution of Royal power. In brief this one battle, this one death, can be said to affect the fate of all Europe east of vienna.

All because a 20 something fell off his horse and drowned.

Seriously. The king didn't even get to die fighting.

So let us suppose that history is kinder to our beleaguered Louis. Whilst a victory at Mohave is not likely (though not impossible) merely keeping Louis alive- by keeping him firmly in the saddle in the rout- is a small but immensely potent PoD,in and of itself. Let us say that Louis escapes alive though defeated, frustrated by the Hungarian nobility's failure to accept that the middle ages were over. Of course the young king sires an heir with his wife- and assuming Poland goes as Otl when Ladislaus ii dies childless in 1572 the king (or his son) of Hungary Bohemia and Croatia inherits Poland and the Grand Duchy of lithuania...
As a side note Russian time of Troubles started about two decades after that.

What does this look like? Can this Frankenstein of an empire last?
 
The battle of Mohacs is one of the most pivotal moments of modern history. With the death of Louis II in the rout the Austrian Habsburgs would gain Hungary and Bohemia setting the course for four centuries of Central European politics. Furthermore the death of Louis mean that the Jagellion dynasty would die with his Polish cousins half a cenury later, leading to the formal establishment of the Polish Lithaunian commomnwealth, the rise of the Vasas in Poland, and the dissolution of Royal power. In brief this one battle, this one death, can be said to affect the fate of all Europe east of vienna.

All because a 20 something fell off his horse and drowned.

Seriously. The king didn't even get to die fighting.

So let us suppose that history is kinder to our beleaguered Louis. Whilst a victory at Mohave is not likely (though not impossible) merely keeping Louis alive- by keeping him firmly in the saddle in the rout- is a small but immensely potent PoD,in and of itself. Let us say that Louis escapes alive though defeated, frustrated by the Hungarian nobility's failure to accept that the middle ages were over. Of course the young king sires an heir with his wife- and assuming Poland goes as Otl when Ladislaus ii dies childless in 1572 the king (or his son) of Hungary Bohemia and Croatia inherits Poland and the Grand Duchy of lithuania...
As a side note Russian time of Troubles started about two decades after that.

What does this look like? Can this Frankenstein of an empire last?

I've always found Louis II a fascinating and pivotal figure in Eastern European history. His survival keeps most of the future Austrian Monarchy out of the Habsburgs hands.

First off, Louis's survival would probably mean no division of Royal/Eastern Hungary, so Louis' hand is stronger than Ferdinand I's was. However, either way John Zápolya is going to be very powerful as he commands one of the only intact armies in Hungary. Second, would the Turks still be able to take control of must of the Kingdom without John and his supporters throwing themselves into an alliance with the invaders? This is a tough one, but probably not. Without the support of at least some of the nobility, the Turks would have their supply lines constantly harassed, making the possibility of conquering up to Buda very difficult.

Third, and going directly towards your idea of a mega Jagellion empire, the answer is no. With a POD in 1526 there's absolutely no guarantee that the Polish Royal line still goes extinct. And even if it did, the best Louis could hope for is getting a second son in Krakow, not a full personal union. The Polish nobility would never go for that.

Fourth though, if Louis can get Hungary under control in a way similar to Matthias Corvinus and repel the Turks, we could see the Jagellions replace the OTL Habsburgs as a power in Eastern Europe. This would basically force/allow Ferdinand to focus his energy on the Empire, which could lead to a strengthened Crown within the HRE. Hungary-Bohemia remains the bulwark of Europe against the Turks and Poland potentially acts as a shield against Russian influence. Could be a very interesting TL.
 
I've always found Louis II a fascinating and pivotal figure in Eastern European history. His survival keeps most of the future Austrian Monarchy out of the Habsburgs hands.

First off, Louis's survival would probably mean no division of Royal/Eastern Hungary, so Louis' hand is stronger than Ferdinand I's was. However, either way John Zápolya is going to be very powerful as he commands one of the only intact armies in Hungary. Second, would the Turks still be able to take control of must of the Kingdom without John and his supporters throwing themselves into an alliance with the invaders? This is a tough one, but probably not. Without the support of at least some of the nobility, the Turks would have their supply lines constantly harassed, making the possibility of conquering up to Buda very difficult.

Third, and going directly towards your idea of a mega Jagellion empire, the answer is no. With a POD in 1526 there's absolutely no guarantee that the Polish Royal line still goes extinct. And even if it did, the best Louis could hope for is getting a second son in Krakow, not a full personal union. The Polish nobility would never go for that.

Fourth though, if Louis can get Hungary under control in a way similar to Matthias Corvinus and repel the Turks, we could see the Jagellions replace the OTL Habsburgs as a power in Eastern Europe. This would basically force/allow Ferdinand to focus his energy on the Empire, which could lead to a strengthened Crown within the HRE. Hungary-Bohemia remains the bulwark of Europe against the Turks and Poland potentially acts as a shield against Russian influence. Could be a very interesting TL.

Well Ladislaus II was childless after three marriages so I think the problem was with him. Also the hand of the author can be taken into account.:cool:
A union of Poland and Hungary is not unprecedented- it happened twice before, and both countries have a common enemy in the Ottomans. IIRC the Grand Duchy of Lithuania was strict primogeniture so that would go to Louis II's kid regardless and Poland would likely vote for him as well. As Charles V shows dynastic inheritances do not recognize bloat. Now KEEPING the union together, I agree, would likely be impossible, but the mere fact of it would like the Habsburg dynasty leave significant ramifications for the coming centuries.
My thought was to have a lasting union of Poland, Bohemia and maybe Hungary, with the GD of Lithuania going to some younger brother who also becomes Czar of Russia as part of the fallout of the Time of Troubles. This isn't as outlandish as it sounds- even OTL the Vasas had some support among the boyars and were occupying Moscow. The Jagellonians would be richer and more powerful plus have a history of religious tolerance- I could see some Jagellonian scion pulling a Henry IV and converting to Orthodoxy to gain support, and Lithuania at this time had a huge number of Ruthenians and orthodox Christians so there would be some benefit to doing this even in Lithuania proper.

This is just one example of what COULD happen, without much effort. Stranger things have come to pass in history and alt-history.
 
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