Los Hijos del Pais v2: A rough outline of a Philippines TL I want to write

Wonderful!

I've already been talking to others, and it does seem that, no matter what I do, the economic aspects of this nation are such that the Philippine Republic is doomed to be a junior power to whatever other Asian great power emerges from TTL. But I won't let that stop me from writing this. Japan of the South in the late 19th and early 20th centuries may be way out of ATL Philippines' league, but I think we can at least achieve the rank of respectable middling power before getting stomped on and then achieving Japan of the South rank. :p

I did the math on this before.

Economy of Japan in 1900 is $52,020 M with a population of 44.103 M in OTL.

In 1820 Japan started with 31M with $20,739 M GDP.

Philippines assuming same per capita as OTL Japan($1,180) assuming same population as 7.324M OTL, $8,642.32.

Philippines assuming same per capita as OTL Argentina(($2,756) assuming same population as OTL $20,184.M. Germany is around $2,985 and France is around $2,876. If you stay with Argentina per capita, you need around 20M population to surpass Japan.

20M population from 2M+ in 80 years is doable. US in OTL went from 10M in 1820 to 76M in 1900 with a Civil war in 1860s. Australia went from 300k in 1820 OTL to 3M 1900. Argentina went from 534k in 1820 to 4.7M in 1900.

You can have the other way around and to have British, Australia, New Zealand, or US per capita(Roughly around $4k per capita) and need less population roughly around 12-15M.

Even if we just assume Argentina population growth(times 8.8 from 1820 population) and per capita for Philippines from 1820 to 1900, Philippines would be 20M population and $55,120M economy.
 
20M population from 2M in 80 years is doable. US in OTL went from 10M in 1820 to 76M in 1900 with a Civil war in 1860s. Australia went from 300k in 1820 OTL to 3M 1900. Argentina went from 534k in 1820 to 4.7M in 1900.

To be fair, the USA and Australia and Argentina already had large tracts of arable land. Even if the state seizes all the land of the religious orders, which would be hell on the political side, the Philippine islands are still not that great for population growth.

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Nonetheless, interesting insights. Let's see what we can do with this...
 
To be fair, the USA and Australia and Argentina already had large tracts of arable land. Even if the state seizes all the land of the religious orders, which would be hell on the political side, the Philippine islands are still not that great for population growth.

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Nonetheless, interesting insights. Let's see what we can do with this...

Well Britain and Japan were roughly the same area as the Philippines. Philippines is just left far behind in terms of population. Mindanao, Palawan, certain parts of Luzon, Visayas are still roughly underdeveloped and barely populated by the Moros and pagans.

20M is a good population for an agriculture country. That was the population under Quezon. That is the time when Quezon pushed for Jewish migration and migration in Mindanao.

Just having the same per capita as Argentina would attract more Chinese and Indians compared to OTL plus how near Philippines is.

The luxury in USA, Australia, Argentina people can own large tracts of land compared to Britain, Japan and Philippines. The disadvantage of that with Philippines is less attraction to European migrants wanting to own large tracts of land.

Of course there are social impacts on larger population migration. Mainly pagan and Moro tensions.
 
If you want have them get stomped on like China was, with not much actual development wrecked but a lot of lost face. Maybe a war with a colonial power that seizes some town or island as a trade port? Maybe even just Spain coming back for revenge...
 
Just having the same per capita as Argentina would attract more Chinese and Indians compared to OTL plus how near Philippines is.

The luxury in USA, Australia, Argentina people can own large tracts of land compared to Britain, Japan and Philippines. The disadvantage of that with Philippines is less attraction to European migrants wanting to own large tracts of land.
I'd think the arable Philippine soil could very effectively attract Chinese migrants. As far as I know Qing China was in dire need of land reform, and with the Philippines as an easy way to circumvent the high rents of farming back in China, it could prove a prime destination for migrants. All the Philippines has to do is to lay the groundwork and infrastructure. Given how Malaysia, at the height of Chinese settlement had some 40% of her population being migrants from Teaches and Guangdong, I'd think it's one of the driving factors to creating a population boom. The challenge is to, unlike Malaysia, effectively assimilate the Chinese into the wider Filipino identity.
 
Well Britain and Japan were roughly the same area as the Philippines. Philippines is just left far behind in terms of population. Mindanao, Palawan, certain parts of Luzon, Visayas are still roughly underdeveloped and barely populated by the Moros and pagans.

20M is a good population for an agriculture country. That was the population under Quezon. That is the time when Quezon pushed for Jewish migration and migration in Mindanao.

Just having the same per capita as Argentina would attract more Chinese and Indians compared to OTL plus how near Philippines is.

The luxury in USA, Australia, Argentina people can own large tracts of land compared to Britain, Japan and Philippines. The disadvantage of that with Philippines is less attraction to European migrants wanting to own large tracts of land.

Of course there are social impacts on larger population migration. Mainly pagan and Moro tensions.

I see...

If you want have them get stomped on like China was, with not much actual development wrecked but a lot of lost face. Maybe a war with a colonial power that seizes some town or island as a trade port? Maybe even just Spain coming back for revenge...

Not having them stomped on by anyone yet. And definitely not by Spain. I have a different fate in mind for Mother Spain...

As for colonial powers, I do have a war or two in mind with the Netherlands, once the Philippines has established itself.
 
As for colonial powers, I do have a war or two in mind with the Netherlands, once the Philippines has established itself.
I'd say a priority would be to establish a firm foothold on Borneo--perhaps aiding the Kongsi Republics in return for their loyalty to Manila--and projecting power into the Straits of Malacca.
 
Kulturkampf part II (The Hermano Pule affair)
The chaos comes as Palmero wraps up his time in office. The Liberals and the Traditionalists butt heads over the Church, but the Traditionalists, though somewhat more powerful than the anticlerical Liberals, are themselves fractured into two factions: the Hijos del Pais who advocate for the native priesthood, and the reactionary Ultramontanists who believe the Pope alone has the final say on such matters. The two factions, though united by the maintenance of the Church's sovereignty, struggle and clash on many occasions across the administration of the High Consul.

This comes to a head in 1841 when the Ultramontanists call for the head, or at least the frock, of one Mariano Gomez, a secular priest who has ever fought for the rights of the native priests as opposed to the still largely Peninsular friars.

This protest specifically comes from Fr. Gomez's endorsement of the seemingly heterodox Cofradia de San Jose, a native religious order founded by the lay brother Apolinario de la Cruz, popularly known as Hermano Pule. A boy when the revolution swept through his home province, de la Cruz was deeply influenced by the violence and the chaos he encountered, and at a young age desired to become a priest. Yet he was spurned by the friars of the Dominican order. Undeterred, he worked as a lay brother in the San Juan de Dios hospital, learning public speaking and studying the Bible alongside a brotherhood that allowed natives into their ranks. Eventually, the young man formed his own lay religious order with a secular priest and other comrades in 1832, named the Hermandad de la Archi-Cofradia del Glorioso Señor San Jose y de la Virgen del Rosario (Brotherhood of the Arch-Confraternity of the Glorious Lord Saint Joseph and the Virgin of the Rosary), shortened to the Cofradia de San Jose, or the Confraternity of Saint Joseph. This confraternity was a small association among many, only differing in that it incorporated some folk practices (itself not uncommon) and, because of Brother Apolinario's experience with the Benedictines, it rejected Spaniards both Criollo and Peninsular within its ranks. [1]

The government had remained unaware of this religious order, spending most of its time getting things in order during and after the revolution, but now comes a religious crisis that tears the Traditionalist faction apart. Both sides have certain grievances with the Confraternity, but the Hijos del Pais want merely to bring them gently in line with orthodoxy as Fr. Gomez has convinced them to do, while the Ultramontanists want this blatant heresy suppressed. The judge of this case ultimately rules in favor of the former, but this causes a wound within the Traditionalist faction and allows the Liberals to rise.

The rise of Marcelino Florentino in particular, an anticlerical Liberal from a branch of a prominent Ilocano family, to the position of High Consul begins a series of laws and regulations which strips the religious orders of prime real estate and begins land reform. This would not go uncontested, and Florentino himself would be the target of more than one assassination attempt, but he begins a culture war that will last decades, perhaps even up to the present.

[1] basically OTL, except with a republican government now at the head of the seat instead of Spaniards looking for any sign of dissent, the Confraternity isn't savagely suppressed and instead becomes a point of controversy within the traditionalist faction of the government.
 
Now I have a bit of a question: how powerful was the Netherlands of 1850, and how much would Britain allow aggression against it? I ask because I definitely think, with all of the ideas thrown about so far, the DEI is going to be more an enemy than a friend ITTL.
 
Kulturkampf part III
The 1840s are a triumph for the Liberals, who see their numbers grow and with a renewed mandate reform much about the Philippines: reforming land ownership, beginning a census, fixing an inconsistency in the calendar, establishing surnames for everyone in the republic, and many other little things to modernize the nation. Trade has also begun flowing in as Filipino diplomats establish connections in Europe and America and foreign firms start re-establishing themselves in Manila. The future for the Liberals looks bright indeed.

Even so, there is a growing factionalism within it as well, this one concerning the idea of free trade and immigration. The older and more classical liberals are still influenced by mercantilism and want to promote a certain economic independence for the people though embracing some aspects of free trade, following the footsteps of their Western counterparts in Europe and America, while the younger founders of the republic are more cosmopolitan, and embrace the foreign far more freely. The former faction call themselves Nationalists, while they brand the latter faction, properly called New Liberals, Sangleys. Still the New Liberals embrace the appellation, many of whom are themselves Chinese, and look southward to the Kongsi federations for inspiration.

It is interesting to note that both Marcelino Florentino and his successor, the so-called 'Crown Prince of Molo' Hermenegildo Araneta y Estrella, are both Sangley Liberals, which certainly explains the chaos that happens in the decade of Araneta's administration.

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So. Now we'll be heading south. As Xianfeng Emperor and Namayan have convinced me to deal with the Chinese, who will be very much essential in the decades to come. Of course, before that I'd like to know if anyone has any objections to this. I will be indulging in a bit of DEI-screw, but I want to know how plausible that is. Unfortunately for me, the Java War occurs at the same time as this, so IDK how much I can actually change it, if at all.
 
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Hiatus
Hey there guys. I'll be offline for a long time because of college burnout, so I won't be able to continue this story until at least September. Hopefully by then I'll have some new things for y'all. :p
 
Hey there guys. I'll be offline for a long time because of college burnout, so I won't be able to continue this story until at least September. Hopefully by then I'll have some new things for y'all. :p
Looking forward to the TL when it comes back!
 
Hopefully even more than just parts, if the Philippines ITTL is lucky and the Kongsi federations feel the need for protection.

Oh well, now I see some even greater mining opportunities for the Phillipines. You have my attention.

How the Hakka communities will impact Filipino Bornean politics will also be fascinating.
 
Oh well, now I see some even greater mining opportunities for the Phillipines. You have my attention.

How the Hakka communities will impact Filipino Bornean politics will also be fascinating.

Indeed. Unfortunately, this will have to wait until September, but I'm definitely excited about the possibilities of an independent Philippines and how it interacts with the cultures around it.
 
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