Look to the West: Thread III, Volume IV (Tottenham Nil)!

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Thande

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I believe the "iron as a Hittite superweapon" idea has fallen out of favor among OTL specialists,
I know. Frankly the new paradigm does not convince me at all, I think it's the product of people with an axe to grind (no pun intended) and not based on a dispassionate consideration of the evidence. (As are many things in archaeology of course). So it strikes me as not the sort of thing that is likely to crop up in any random TL. Your mileage may vary of course.

I liked the line about the sheep.

Does that mean that the New Zealand Mutton and Wool industry is a fundamental constant of the universe:p:D;)
Well sheep are a good fit for the country. Mind you, New Zealand actually now produces more beef than mutton, or so I hear.
 
Well I'm done with the 2nd thread, but I'll reserve all my comments for when I get done with the updates for the new. I do have to say, even though it's going down a dark road, I love the UPSA :cool:. This is the only TL I can think of that has South America not just getting glossed over (admittedly not as bad as Africa), but becoming a world power. But like I said, I'll get more into it when I'm caught up and can contribute to the 'present' rather than the past.
 
Oh dear, I foresee this looking like the Krikkit...

Excellent update, a very interesting spin on the development of a non-Western modern military power.
 
Speaking of "superweapons," what is the deal with gunpowder, exactly?

Mix the right proportions of suitable carbon powder, suitable sulfur powder, and suitable saltpeter powder, and you've got gunpowder. Having learned that I got on for decades assuming that, as the post on the Maure implies, it's mainly just a matter of knowing the secret. In that post, all the Europeans have to do is sell the "secret formula" to the Maure and they can make their own powder--in fact the formula can leak and their rivals are making it too, on secondhand information.

But then I learned a bit more US history, then I encountered any number of threads here at AH asserting that a suitable form of saltpeter in particular is a scarce and easily monopolized resource. Any number of threads with people claiming that for instance if the USA went to war with Britain in the latter half of the 19th century (say in the 1870s or '80s) we'd be brought to our knees because the British had gotten control of the major saltpeter sources (guano mines, on the South American Pacific coast, mostly) and we'd soon run out of gunpowder. The Germans supposedly risked a similar dire fate until they invented the Haber process, and then, some say, still suffered OTL from having enough nitrates either for waging the war or for fertilizing the fields for food, but not both.

As for the US history--the proximate cause, the spark to the powder as it were, of the outbreak of sustained violence between British Regulars and the Massachussets rebel/patriots was the "Powder Plot" of Governor/General Gage. Gage hoped to preempt the colonials ability to create serious unrest by seizing the New England powder stores. This is what the Battle of Lexington was all about.

And that implies that gunpowder is not something a small Colonial village on the frontier could just whip up for themselves as needed. There were apparently far fewer powder mills in all of British North America than there were colonies!

Reading up on it some more, it seemed the Continental Congress was well aware they faced a crisis on this score and took measures to encourage American production of powder, involving harvesting saltpeter from stables and the like. But on the whole the results were quite unimpressive--something like 10 percent, maybe a fifth, of all the gunpowder fired by the Americans in the Revolutionary War was American-made, the rest either exhausted stocks existing before the war or was imported, mainly from France as part of the alliance, or in some cases its fabrication was completed here but from foreign-bought materials.

So, this might not disprove that small villages could in principle create powder as needed for their own uses, if they had a suitable source of sulfur--because carbon can generally be obtained by partially burning almost anything into charcoal, and saltpeter as a byproduct of the urine of domestic animals (or people I suppose!:eek:) But in real life, it seems people rarely if ever actually do that. In the age of gunpowder weapons, powder was apparently Big Business. Quite aside from the question of getting raw materials of suitable quality, milling gunpowder is as one might expect a rather fussy and risky business; accidental explosions were not uncommon. Expertise and a concentration of capital resources seem to have been much favored in practice, to the point that entire nations went without their own domestic mills and imported powder through international trade. It could be that had push come to shove, the American rebels might indeed have managed to scrounge up their own powder from domestic sources--but as long as they had the option open of simply buying it ready made from overseas, that was by far the economically sensible option, and despite the existential threat hanging over them this is what they did.

So--Maure with gunpowder. It's a very cool idea and I'd like to see it justified. Are there any OTL examples of peoples of a comparable technical level and population density managing the feat of homemade gunpowder like that? Or even peoples considerably more advanced yet normally considered decisively less advanced than the Europeans? Did the various trade-route empires of the Sahel for instance make their own powder, or did they buy it from either Islamic or Western merchants (or both of course?)

I suppose the apparent contradiction can be resolved with considerations of scale--that a small scale of local production of gunpowder was done for local use, for hunting and the like. But when it became a matter of serious war the masses required soon exceed the capability of such domestic production and to produce powder on a really large scale was a capital-intensive business, involving requirements to import large quantities of easily processed guano and so forth, and that's where gunpowder appears as a matter of global business.

So the fact that General Gage thought he could nip New Englander rebellion in the bud might not imply that in seizing the colonial powder houses, he was going to completely deprive these colonies of all powder whatsoever, but only tip the balance so that only the British Regulars would have stocks on a scale suitable for arming regiments or firing cannon; the backwoodsmen might still be able to make powder for hunting, but the eastern coastal populations, facing those regiments when they had only the powder they normally needed for day to day hunting, would be daunted. Similarly I suppose the Germans pre-Haber could have managed to create some gunpowder for their weapons but not on the scale the Entente, with access to South American guano, could, and so would reconsider the whole war idea, or surrender if this problem became apparent only later.

But perhaps the Maure, who had only small numbers of guns after all, could get by with the small quantities they could make, assuming no large European power showed up to fight them with a serious arsenal--and between their reputation as tough nuts to crack when there were easier pickings around, and their great distance from European centers of power (Antipodia itself being just beginning its development, and the DEI (I forget, is that still in Dutch hands?) already being rather far away, as is China) mean that risk is remote. They are dealing with slave raiders and whatever arms a whaling ship or the like might carry; on that scale the Maure can compete.

So is that it?
 
...I do have to say, even though it's going down a dark road, I love the UPSA :cool:. This is the only TL I can think of that has South America not just getting glossed over (admittedly not as bad as Africa), but becoming a world power. ...

I came to this thread for the ENA but I stay for the USPA. It's the real analog of the USA in this timeline, and in some ways it's better.

It's sad they have prominent people involved in the slave trade but of course OTL at this stage the USA was committed to promoting slavery on a continental scale; it was scarcely respectable at this point for even Northern leaders to speak against it.

And it's sadder they become the evil boogeymen of the Anglosphere, but we still have yet to get a good look at what Societism means to the average resident of its sphere of influence.

I think I've been one of the ones guilty of taking some perhaps misinterpreted remark of Thande's and blowing it up into a claim the Societists champion slavery. And as I dimly recall that, it came as a sad shock to me too--I'd be glad to learn it's not true.

Usually, Societism at its worst looks like the American technocratic view fashionable in US ruling circles between WWII and say the mid-1970s, mixed with a bit of Leninist style.

In other words, if Americans had been more sincere and enthusiastic about the "American way" being a revolutionary path of human liberation (which is how I tended to interpret it when I was a kid in the 1970s) we'd have been more like the Societists. A whole lot of name-dropping, Tom Paine said this and Jefferson said that, in the style that typical Soviet publications tended to include iconic sayings of Lenin, embedded in an atmosphere of technocratic pseudo-math, and we're almost there--now just substitute in more Spanish names and Spanish style terms and we've just about got it.

One big happy free-trading, freely voting, meritocratic society, with the rest of the world cowering in medieval darkness and mind-clouding divisiveness. That's honestly how I saw the USA (and its loyal friends, by which I meant Europe, Japan, the Commonwealth, etc) versus the backward and threatening powers of the world when I was a kid.:eek:
 
Great update as always, Thande.

I'm curious about TTL's transcription of Maori/Mauré compared to OTL's. Is there a formula or such that you use to get Maori's TTL spelling or do you do it on a word-by-word basis?
 
The Mauri are being epic, if a little scary.

that's pretty much what they Do. hehe.

IOTL they did similar things in many cases, regularly using Pa to defeat British/government regular troops. after all, a fort near your trade rout or line of supply is a threat. so... the maori got to the point where they could build one in anywhere from a night to a few days, depending, man it long enough to draw the central government troops to attack it to remove the threat, bleed the attackers... then abandon it and escape because the thing didn't actually serve any other purpose. the things were highly resistant to cannon and musket fire, too, and designed so that, most of the time, even when they Did take damage you couldn't really tell from the outside.

blowing up ships (see picture) setting up their own (brief and limited) colonization effort using a mercenary british ship for transport, their initial technological adoption (pre economic crash)... it wasn't really until the whole land sale thing had the wrong people put in charge of it that everything really fouled up.

(and yeah, the wars varied a Lot as to who was on what side. NZ wasn't Properly and Completely unified until part way into WW1. at various times you had different brands of rebels, including both maori and europeans, on one side and the central government forces (including both maori and europeans) on the other... exactly who was on what side varied. the central government forces started off as british redcoats and by the end of the last one were New Zealand police.)

anyway, ramble aside: Great to see this update. i have been awaiting it eagerly for some time :D
 

Thande

Donor
Great update as always, Thande.

I'm curious about TTL's transcription of Maori/Mauré compared to OTL's. Is there a formula or such that you use to get Maori's TTL spelling or do you do it on a word-by-word basis?
Mostly my own guesswork but I forgot to give credit for Gwenchlan for giving me some help in this case, thanks.

IOTL they did similar things in many cases, regularly using Pa to defeat British/government regular troops. after all, a fort near your trade rout or line of supply is a threat. so... the maori got to the point where they could build one in anywhere from a night to a few days, depending, man it long enough to draw the central government troops to attack it to remove the threat, bleed the attackers... then abandon it and escape because the thing didn't actually serve any other purpose. the things were highly resistant to cannon and musket fire, too, and designed so that, most of the time, even when they Did take damage you couldn't really tell from the outside.

blowing up ships (see picture) setting up their own (brief and limited) colonization effort using a mercenary british ship for transport, their initial technological adoption (pre economic crash)... it wasn't really until the whole land sale thing had the wrong people put in charge of it that everything really fouled up.
Yeah, events in TTL are really just based on OTL events exaggerated and with the Maori possessing a few more advantages than OTL (mainly just having a longer period with less European contact in which to adapt and survive, and less interest from European states for state colonial ventures). The impressed tone I give to European writers in TTL is really speaking with my own voice here, it's truly remarkable what the Maori achieved considering their low level of technology to start with and other disadvantages. Even though they did not preserve their full independence in OTL they remain an important part of New Zealand politics and culture, and have defined NZ's identity to an extent that few native peoples in settler colonies can boast of.

This is also why I didn't need to consider the questions Shevek raised--we know the Maori can make gunpowder because they did it in OTL!
 
This is also why I didn't need to consider the questions Shevek raised--we know the Maori can make gunpowder because they did it in OTL!

As much as economics is a dirty word round here (;)), quantity is a difference - being able to do x doesn't necessarily enable 2x.

@Shevek; one thing you're missing on why smaller communities didn't make gunpowder is that gunpowder production is in direct competition with both agriculture and heating. Every spadeful of shit added to a manure bed or log made into charcoal is one you're not using to feed your crops or warm your house.

In a hard year the powder mills are going to be starved of resources, they were 'big business' because there was only limited sites where the resources and surplus labour existed that weren't in competition for other needs and so expertise was concentrated. This is why British India was such a enormous producer of saltpeter - so many people and limited infrastructure meant that all the shit couldn't get back out to the fields economically and thus was available for manure beds (the fact the farmers were hella poor and the mills could outbid/force them also helped).
 

Thande

Donor
As much as economics is a dirty word round here (;)), quantity is a difference - being able to do x doesn't necessarily enable 2x.

Well no. That is a point. But rest assured that it is not one I haven't considered in this case, longterm speaking.

To be honest I did go overboard with the economics bashing: I'm just expressing the "MacCauleyite" attitude that in AH, telling a good story should always come above absolute plausibility--that is certainly worth trying for wherever possible, but it should not be the primary goal. Of course I appreciate that suspension of disbelief here depends on one's perspective--one man's 'do the numbers in DoD's treatment of industrial slavery quite work out?' is another man's 'OPERATION SEALION WITH AIRSHIPS FIRING ATOMIC LASERS'. I tend to obsess over things like making sure I don't use things like terminology that hadn't come about by 1727, unless I can justify it, whereas your perspective I would guess is more focused on the economic realities. To each their own. I get the impression that I could rewrite LTTW every ten years and make it better and better every time as I do more and more research and have a better and better understanding of history, but I don't think that level of Tolkienesque perfectionism is terribly helpful.
 
Hey you're getting the wrong end of the stick, I have zero problem with the glossing over the crunch in search of a good story. It's just fun to nitpick the external explanations you and others offer rather than the primary text ;).

Unless you get geography wrong of course: THAT WILL NOT STAND!
 

Thande

Donor
Hey you're getting the wrong end of the stick, I have zero problem with the glossing over the crunch in search of a good story. It's just fun to nitpick the external explanations you and others offer rather than the primary text ;).

Unless you get geography wrong of course: THAT WILL NOT STAND!

I can understand that. In my defence, my GCSE geography teacher was crap :p

BTW, did you look at the new China map I did a couple of pages back, I wanted to fiddle the new Korean border to address those points you raised way back when about the Amur watershed, but I couldn't find the original map you scribbled on as the imagehosting in your original post had expired, so I just guessed from your text.
 
I can understand that. In my defence, my GCSE geography teacher was crap :p

BTW, did you look at the new China map I did a couple of pages back, I wanted to fiddle the new Korean border to address those points you raised way back when about the Amur watershed, but I couldn't find the original map you scribbled on as the imagehosting in your original post had expired, so I just guessed from your text.

So the borders have been adjusted to something the Russians want eh?

Well I stand by my earlier point that the Russians would really not want the Nen watershed; it might look contiguous and neat but its encircled by mountains such that the Russians would have to practical go through Corean territory to get to it. Plus it has nothing the Russians want at this time.

blehx.png


The Coreans basically control Manchuria with their current position, I see little reason why the stopped where they currently are, they basically halted randomly in the middle of an open plain at an easily fordable river. IMO they'd ever go to the edge of the arable land or to the Klingan mountains, they've already done the hard bit after all. Given what they have already taken, there is no one to stop them going further as the Chinese and manchu have been beaten, and the Russians won't be interested till railroads occur (and maybe not even then depending on the differing character and opportunities of this Russia).

If the Russians were redrawing the maps they'd go for the lower Amur basin (purple blob) and if they feel lucky the upper Ussuri plains (southern purple blob) then have the border in the mountains ringing these two areas. The Russians in their original negociations with the chinese in the OTL wanted the borders for the west somewhere in the Klingan mountains (the ranges I've indicated).

How far up or down Outer Manchuria you put the easternmost border is arbitrary (as there is nothing of interest there to anyone), but it would never go east-west like that as the landforms there just don't work like that (a dead straight longitude division might be plausible, but again it wouldn't look like that wiggly line). The Russians would also and always be against having the border on the Amur river itself - that's their main highway after all!

I'd have something like this myself:

bleh2z.png


alts in darker red. The Coreans are using the Nen as their western rather than northern border against the nomads. The white area is effectively under no ones control but would show up on european produced maps under anyones colours :p
 

Thande

Donor
Thanks for the input. NB I don't think you read the chapter that map goes with, but the new borders are the result of a (limited and halfhearted) Beiqing Chinese reconquista of parts of what the Koreans took before in response to an uprising that just kind of petered out, so it doesn't represent a Korean disengagement line. Your suggestion on that is more relevant for determining the pre-war borders which is what we were discussing originally, many moons ago. At some point I will redo the circa 1815 map to reflect your comments.

I will also bear in mind your comments re. the mountains, though (as you imply) at this point maps made by Europeans will have the border going anywhere within a couple of hundred miles either side of where actual lines of control are ;) Perhaps the triangular area north of your 'Nicely arable...' comment would make sense as part of a "Corean on paper, but part of Russian sphere on influence in actuality" zone due to increasing Russian influence over Corea, esp in the north?

Besides which I forgot to mark on alt-Vladivostok anyway, so that map needs improvements in any case.
 
Thanks for the input. NB I don't think you read the chapter that map goes with, but the new borders are the result of a (limited and halfhearted) Beiqing Chinese reconquista of parts of what the Koreans took before in response to an uprising that just kind of petered out, so it doesn't represent a Korean disengagement line. Your suggestion on that is more relevant for determining the pre-war borders which is what we were discussing originally, many moons ago. At some point I will redo the circa 1815 map to reflect your comments.

I will also bear in mind your comments re. the mountains, though (as you imply) at this point maps made by Europeans will have the border going anywhere within a couple of hundred miles either side of where actual lines of control are ;) Perhaps the triangular area north of your 'Nicely arable...' comment would make sense as part of a "Corean on paper, but part of Russian sphere on influence in actuality" zone due to increasing Russian influence over Corea, esp in the north?

Besides which I forgot to mark on alt-Vladivostok anyway, so that map needs improvements in any case.

Oh right sorry thought that map was meant to be 'current'. Well the great thing about talking about mountain lines and watersheds is that its based on a descriptive fact, so you can update the maps as detailed knowledge of the area develops even if contemporary European maps look a bit silly.

Petered out? I'd say that doesn't fit very well with the region or history; you have these huge flat plains and once you've broken the enemy you sweep on till you hit the mountains. A mixed situation is highly unstable which is why its been so easy to unify both the north china plain and the Northeastern plain (which the current border kinda wiggles across randomly). Where are the new boundaries?

Well the upper part of the Nen could perfectly well be under Russian influence, they'd just not care very much about it at all due to its unimportance: Almost no settled population, known resources, ease of access, or utility for getting them anywhere. It is also very definitely part of what the Russians acknowledged as Chinese in the 1689 treaty. There are just other things they want more. Searching the whole timeline I can't find the part where it came under Russian control anyway. Its going to be de facto under control of whoever controls the hinge point further south at the junction of the Songhua anyway, be they Corean, Chinese or Russian.

To clarify I'm not saying its implausible that the area be Russian controlled, just very silly that they have that bit without having several necessary prerequisite things.
 
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