I thought the UPSA was the USA analogue ITTL, meaning it should have a very long stretch of unbelievable luck until it achieves great power status almost by accident.
It lacks a huge, resource-rich frontier area inhabited by easily exterminable indigines and contested only by a relatively far weaker power far from its demographic center.* It needs to have Draka luck to make it to great power status unscathed...
Bruce
*-heck, as I was saying on a DBWI thread, the US essentially came into existence with the resources to be a great power: there's enough mineral resouces and agricultural land east of the Mississippi for the US to outmatch any European nation save Russia. [1]
[1] If we assume no Insane Expansion on the part of the Germans or French, anyway.