Thande, I’ve been reading your timeline for some time after the start of Volume II, and I’ve got to say your timeline is one of the best I’ve read, IF not the best.
The ending, with that map of South America, makes me remember one of your opening quotes, some guy saying a phrase very similar to a Bismark phrase, but for south America instead of the Balkans. I need to comment a lot about it, so here it goes:
OTL South America saw some wars, but for most of its independent history, it was a mostly peaceful place, with upheaval being civil wars and military coups rather than constant wars. Some countries split and stuff, but there weren’t the aberrations found in Europe, like immense ethnic groups of one country inside the other, etc. The immense cut-up of Portuguese South America is not going to produce pretty results, methinks.
For starters, Brazil and Portugal: I have a feeling there are two directions to be taken here. The first is that angry Brazilians take over and make a angry independent Brazil with serious revanchist aspirations. The second is that Brazil will stay united to Portugal in order to counter UPSA power. Also, revanchism, lots of revanchism. I’m feeling we’re not going to see the independence of Brazil, it was caused by some Portuguese wanting to turn Brazil into a ordinary colony, I doubt its going to happen under the Aveiro doctrine. Brazil is probably a United Kingdom with Portugal right now.
Portuguese Brazil has it pretty bad now, it’s virtually under siege. In the south, it has the UPSA, Cisplatina and Rio Grande. In the north, there’s Pernambuco (another UPSA puppet) and the Republic of the Guyanas. All of them took territory from it and all of them are either hostile foreigners or splinter countries puppeted by foreign powers. The Luso-Brazilians are going to panic when they perceive this.
It might even create a perception of menace, something like “Hispanic hordes are going to take over the lusitanic peoples again, we must react!” Both in America and Iberia. In this case, it might either end with a independent angry Brazil ready for revenge, or angry and paranoid United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and Algarves. The Brazilian stereotype of this TL is NOT going to be happy, easygoing people with a love of carnival and beaches, but rather a bunch of revanchist, militaristic jungle crazies.
Its kinda interesting to see that Hispano and Luso-America are kinda switched over in this TL. Hispano America is united in two countries and luso-america is now divided in four countries, three being UPSA puppets, one united with Portugal, and part of it is under occupation of a dutch colonial remant.
Now on to the UPSA: Did UPSA only take and retain Mato Grosso from Portuguese South America? Its not going to be too hard to swarm them with settlers, but I guess they’re going to retain a serious lusitanic culture over the years, and it might be a sticking point, especially for Brazilian/Lusitanic revanchists.
Also, Thande, what about the Guaicuru/Kadweu natives? Mato Grosso, in the borders between Mato Grosso and OTL Paraguay was their stomping grounds. They were horse-riding nomadic natives that gave both both the Spanish and the Portuguese constant trouble though the colonial times, commonly kidnapping people of rich brazilian families and asking for ransom in Assuncion. Even after they signed treaties with Brazilian and Paraguayan authorities, they never ceased being militaristic. During the Triple Alliance War, the Guaicurus resisted a Paraguayan attack and even counter-attacked them in their own territory. Perhaps a possible native state, as a buffer against Brazil?
Also, Pablo Sanchez. I can’t see how Societism is going to take over the UPSA. I’m feeling bad times are coming for the UPSA, and Societism will be way they will take to stabilize the country. UPSA has been on the rise for some time now, I’m getting a feeling they’re going to take a ugly fall any day now, and I get a feeling that the Luso-Brazilians and perhaps New Spain will be there to kick them while they’re down.
Now, for the strange Republic of the Guyanas:
Hohohoho oh boy, its going to be a strange place. A dutch trading and military elite taking over a mass of luso-native riverside peasants and some monocultural sugar farmers and cattle ranchers. Ever heard of Cabanágem, Thande? If the dutch screw up, its going to be Cabanagem x3, except this time there’s no Brazil to help the loyalists, only a further-away UPSA. Cabanagem has been often compared to the French Revolution, which is going to make waves if it happens in TTL.
I wonder what economic activities such state will live by? I’m guessing mining. fishery, rubber and extraction of amazonic products. We might see Açai and such. Serra Pelada is part of the sold territory they brought from UPSA, and I would hazard a guess they might find the gold if they look at the forest, though that depends on where it is, I will look a map. Gold Mines would seriously help government revenue.
Is the Carajás mineral province within Dutch Guyanian or Portuguese territory? I think it is, and it might be found if they look for it hard enough. I will look today for some maps of the area and then post about it on Thursday, because I’m internetless. Also, there is lots of untapped mining potential in Amazon even today, and the Dutch might find it.
Culturally, I wonder how that is going to go. The conquered peoples are catholic Luso-natives with a rural culture concentrated around rivers. The Dutch are protestant traders and soldiers with a urban culture from a temperate country. I think the key to control here is to perceive that Amazon’s roads are the rivers, and I think the Dutch are actually pretty prepared to perceive this.
Linguistically, I think we’re going to see a dutch-speaking upper class and a Portuguese speaking lower class. Did Pombal prohibit the General Language (Nheengatu) in this TL? If not, we might see a Dutch-speaking upper class, some western amazonic nheengatu speakers and the eastern part of the country will contain a Portuguese speaking lower class. I think the original upper-class (slave-holding rural colonels) will be the main link between the Dutch-speaking elite and the mass of Portuguese speaking peasants. Its very much akin to Dutch Pernambuco in OTL, and like it, if the Dutch fail to please the local escravocatas, its not going to end well for them.
Still, the Dutch might be able to tackle the challenge, but its going to be a weeeeird place, and it might end in blood, tears and burned houses. This would be a good place for Societism to take hold, but that remains to be seen.
I really don’t have much to comment on New Spain, except: How did they get the north of OTL’s Pará and most of OTL Amazonas? Is that gains during the Popular Wars or did they win against Portuguese Brazil before and I don’t remember due to lousy memory?
Also, the rest of the world: When are we going to see more Superia, India, Khazakistan and Yapan?
Well Rio Grande took all of Brazil's coal and the land it uses for lumbering and tobacco.
It lost a fair bit of its oil in the north and it access to the Amazon's Brazil(well I guess not any more) nuts and rubber.
It seems to have retained most of it farmland though, and a lot of its mining resources.
Actually, that coal in Rio Grande do Sul is actually rather crappy, and was never much useful.
That said, Brazil's only significant loss was rubber, at least now. Many resources in the North were only found after the government gained interest in the amazonic region from the fifties to beyond.
