"The modernization of China was from a historical standpoint, inevitable. Sooner or later, the Middle Kingdom would have dug its way out of its own high-level equilibrium trap and resumed economic and military of East Asia and the Pacific Rim. Now the question is *when* this would have happened. Various historians and counterfactual enthusiasts have endlessly debated this matter, with some stating the (rather laughable) possibility that China wouldn't have begun modernizing until the late 1970s. That timeline involved the prospect of the Xianfeng Emperor dying at the age of 30, followed by the ascension to power of the Dowager Empress Ci Xi, a figure counterfactually representative of all the wasteful excesses, jingoism and hidebound behavior of certain parties in late 19th Century China. In any event, I must debunk the preposterous nature of these counterfactual histories, starting of course with the true history of China, from 1860 onwards."- Professor Y.Li, Chair of East Asian History at Beijing University.
Xianfeng: We start with the Xianfeng Emperor, who was humiliated after his defeat in the Second Opium War (resulting in the burning of the old Summer Palace gardens). Desperate for reform (or at least something to fight the Europeans with), Xianfeng began to search for options. At this time, China was being torn apart from the inside by rebellions, and from the outside by various European powers, like the British and French. Now Xianfeng himself was a very weak willed man. However certain individuals in his court, namely the Empress Ci Xi and Xianfeng's half-brother, Yixin, Prince Gong, were dynamic, forward thinking individuals who desired to reform China and preserve the dynasty. Because Xianfeng needed new ideas, he began to listen to his concubine and his half-brother. However, the Emperor remained paranoid of his half-brother, keeping a tight thumb on his power. Ci Xi and Yixin began to conspire together. Because of his intelligence and diplomatic ability, Prince Gong had been placed in charge of the Zongli Yamen, the newly formed foreign ministry of the Qing government.
During his stint at the foreign ministry, an American diplomat informed Yixin of the ongoing civil war in the United States, while handing him a revolver, a Colt Navy to be more specific. A popular figure at the court, Yixin managed to isolate Xianfeng from his allies, while reforming the military behind his brother's back. The decrepit Manchu bannermen were to be no match for the Han troops that had spent years fighting the Taiping Rebellion, and upon the taking of Nanjing, Yixin took a journey south, ostensibly to meet with a British delegation at Shanghai to discuss the purchase of several warships and to negotiate payment for British services during the Taiping rebellion. Without the knowledge of the Emperor, Yixin met with Marquess Zeng Guofan, the general that had defeated the Taiping rebels at Nanjing, and Li Hongzhang, a reform minded, but highly anti-foreign official. Although Yixin himself believed in a more reconciliatory approach to the western powers, Li Hongzhang's administrative abilities could not be overlooked.
In the meantime, Ci Xi had been scheming with various courtiers like Sushun, an influential Manchu, and the various Iron Hat (1) princes. Ci Xi, although reform minded, was an incredibly ambitious woman who would stop at nothing to expand power for herself, even if it meant allying herself with conservative courtiers. Attracted by the prospect of power, Sushun began to gather up the banners. In the meantime, Yixin was using embezzled government funds to purchase rifles, cannon and the services of western mercenaries. He stored the supplies with Zeng Guofang and with various friendly governors in the south of the country, well out of the reach of the Manchu bannermen in Beijing. Xianfeng was being kept in the dark about all of this, because of Prince Gong's alliance with Ci Xi. In fact, by this time, Ci Xi and Prince Gong were the de-facto rulers of China. Xianfeng was allowed to while away his days carousing and drinking.
One of the mercenaries was General James Longstreet, formerly in the service of the Army of Northern Virginia. How General Longstreet ended up in China in the first place is a subject that will be discussed in the next update.
~*~*~
1: Iron Hat: A hereditary Manchu prince.