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What is realistically the latest period that slavery could have survived in the U.S.? There are a few potential POD's to consider:

For one, what if the fewer compromises are made in the decades leading up to the OTL civil war and slavery has an easier expansion into the territories?

Second, what if Lincoln loses in 1860? Does that merely delay the war or was it always inevitable?

What if the south is allowed to secede? How long does slavery survive in an independent CSA?

There are many other potential POD's and sets of circumstances here, but which one produces the latest time frame for the end of slavery in America - be it the USA or CSA - and what is that time frame?
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