Longest slavery could have survived in America?

What is realistically the latest period that slavery could have survived in the U.S.? There are a few potential POD's to consider:

For one, what if the fewer compromises are made in the decades leading up to the OTL civil war and slavery has an easier expansion into the territories?

Second, what if Lincoln loses in 1860? Does that merely delay the war or was it always inevitable?

What if the south is allowed to secede? How long does slavery survive in an independent CSA?

There are many other potential POD's and sets of circumstances here, but which one produces the latest time frame for the end of slavery in America - be it the USA or CSA - and what is that time frame?
 
Well if it lasted long enough it could be used like sweat shop labor once agricultural slavery isn't economically feasible
 
What is realistically the latest period that slavery could have survived in the U.S.? There are a few potential POD's to consider:

You can't really project this without considering events outside the US, especially the elimination of slavery from European colonial empires, newly independent Latin American nations, and the British Empire - the apex superpower. This will depend partly on global economic/diplomatic on events outside of US control.


For one, what if the fewer compromises are made in the decades leading up to the OTL civil war and slavery has an easier expansion into the territories?

Might preserve slavery into the late 19th century, but one wonders if most of the western territories/states would long retain slavery even if they came into the Union as slave states. I suspect that these states would eventually move toward an abolitionist stance given the questionable economic value of slavery outside the south.

Second, what if Lincoln loses in 1860? Does that merely delay the war or was it always inevitable?

War or secession was inevitable. As other innovative posters have suggestions, it might be the northern "Free" states abandoning the federal union.

What if the south is allowed to secede? How long does slavery survive in an independent CSA?

As long as the CSA wants. Since slavery is why the CSA was established and the institution is specifically protected in the CS Constitution, its hard to imagine it being formally abolished - ever. However, as the institution becomes financially unviable one might imagine a situation in which slavery gradually ends as owners manumit slaves and states develop laws to address the increasing number of free blacks in an apartheid manner. The institution ends in a de facto manner but is still legal. This could last forever, barring an outside invasion.

There are many other potential POD's and sets of circumstances here, but which one produces the latest time frame for the end of slavery in America - be it the USA or CSA - and what is that time frame?
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tenthring

Banned
Slavery is still around today. There are more slaves today then every existed in the American south. Mostly in the third world. In addition there are lots of basically slaves that people don't call slaves. Like when Saudi Arabia lures a bunch of Pakistanis over, takes their passports, throws them in slums, and has forced labor that they can't leave for whatever amount of time they want for whatever they want to give them (or nothing at all).

Many the goods you use and raw materials for those goods are the result of slavery.

In addition, slavery within the borders of first world nations has been on the rise for decades. It mostly takes the form of sex slavery imported from the third world. Whatever laws are on the books a blind eye is turned to this on a massive scale. If you live in a major urban center you are likely less then a mile or two away from human slavery.

So I would question that slavery ever went away, and that its actually probably increased in the first world and abroad over the last few decades.
 
What is realistically the latest period that slavery could have survived in the U.S.? There are a few potential POD's to consider:

For one, what if the fewer compromises are made in the decades leading up to the OTL civil war and slavery has an easier expansion into the territories?

Second, what if Lincoln loses in 1860? Does that merely delay the war or was it always inevitable?

What if the south is allowed to secede? How long does slavery survive in an independent CSA?

There are many other potential POD's and sets of circumstances here, but which one produces the latest time frame for the end of slavery in America - be it the USA or CSA - and what is that time frame?

well it did last in OTL till the 1940s
 

tenthring

Banned
He is talking about sex slavery in America. He's really missing the point but not for the reason you bolded.

If the CSA won how long would black chattel slavery be here would be a more specific question.

A lot of people say that slavery isn't economic enough to stay around, but sex slavery will always be economic so to speak.

In addition, chattel slavery could have been on a large scale in Europe for a long time had the Nazi's won. Slavs are slaves and all that. Modernity alone doesn't stop slavery.

And even when slavery was economic moral will was able to eliminate it even in ancient times (see Persian Empire, Zoroastrianism). Slavery is a moral problem, and like all moral problems economics can make it easier or harder to overcome, but in the end its a matter of will no matter the incentive structure.
 
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If you can somehow avoid the Civil War, then perhaps it lasts until the 1880s like it did in Brazil. The problem is avoiding the Civil War, which I do not see as being realistically possible.
 
He is talking about sex slavery in America...

Which is illegal in the US.

Rather than try to score points comparing apples with oranges, why don't we just presume the OP meant: "Longest that slavery could have remained legal in America?"
 

nooblet

Banned
It (chattel slavery along racial lines) could have persisted until the present day. It wouldn't be popular or practical, but it could be done. The CSA was ideologically tied to slavery, Nazi Germany would openly endorse slavery, so either surviving makes slavery almost guaranteed in some form.
 
Without a radical departure from OTL, if the South could be coerced to agree to a gradual emancipation like Pennsylvania did where everybody born after X date is free then I think it's likely that it could have survived into the first half of the 20th century.
 
Why was slavery always linked to agriculture and not industrial means of production? You'd think that given the vile nature of working in a C19 factory that using slaves would have been a choice.
 
Why was slavery always linked to agriculture and not industrial means of production? You'd think that given the vile nature of working in a C19 factory that using slaves would have been a choice.

its a myth that slavery and industrial work didn't get on, in OTL during the Civil War the CSA government leased slave to work in foundries, and after the war forced labor was used through out the south to work in foundries and mining
 

tenthring

Banned
Which is illegal in the US.

Rather than try to score points comparing apples with oranges, why don't we just presume the OP meant: "Longest that slavery could have remained legal in America?"

Because it uses the word survive instead of legal.
 
What is realistically the latest period that slavery could have survived in the U.S.? There are a few potential POD's to consider:

For one, what if the fewer compromises are made in the decades leading up to the OTL civil war and slavery has an easier expansion into the territories?

It really depends on how far back you want your POD. If slavery can be successfully retained de facto in some northern states (as opposed to being grandfathered or simply ignored), then there isn't much incentive to compromise on the slavery issue. You might get an earlier civil war where some northern states and territories choose to leave rather than what we saw in OTL.

Second, what if Lincoln loses in 1860? Does that merely delay the war or was it always inevitable?

War was inevitable when the Democrats split their convention on the issue of slavery for the 1860 election. I do not believe the war itself was inevitable before then if cooler heads prevailed. If you avoid annexing Texas and thus the Mexican War, then you may or may not have had a war.

What if the south is allowed to secede? How long does slavery survive in an independent CSA?

This depends. Without external pressure and all things occurring in a vacuum, indefinitely. But nothing really occurs in a vacuum. Without a war, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia would remain in the Union. The slave power itself would be significantly weakened in the USA. The CSA would also be in a much worse position both militarily and economically. Keep in mind that a "maximum CSA" with Missouri, Kentucky, and Maryland (Delaware is a pipe dream) would have made the CSA much stronger than it was in OTL. A "maximum CSA" could have resisted external influences much better than a "minimum CSA" we see in a TL where the South was allowed to leave peacefully. We really don't know what could happen here.

There are many other potential POD's and sets of circumstances here, but which one produces the latest time frame for the end of slavery in America - be it the USA or CSA - and what is that time frame?

The CSA leaving peacefully will lead to a quicker end to slavery in the USA. The loss of seven slave states SEVERELY cripples the slave power in the USA. The remaining slave states in the USA would be at the mercy of time itself and they would not be able to stop an amendment to the Constitution that would abolish slavery. Of course, that could touch off some defections to the CSA if that were to happen. If the USA permitted the secession of the CSA, the Federal government would be powerless to stop future secessions without a Constitutional amendment.

As far as the CSA goes? Anyone's guess.
 
Why was slavery always linked to agriculture and not industrial means of production? You'd think that given the vile nature of working in a C19 factory that using slaves would have been a choice.

Short answer: it wasn't.

Longer answer: slaves were used in industry before the war, and de facto slavery (forced labour and other legal fictions) were used after the ACW.

They weren't used more because there was a limited supply of slaves. Cotton agriculture was so damn profitable (returns of 16 to 20 percent per annum) that cotton planters could usually outbid anyone else for slaves. Including other agriculturalists (eg tobacco). When cotton prices were lower, industrialists were able to compete with other uses (tobacco, again) for the limited supply of slaves.
 
Short answer: it wasn't.

Longer answer: slaves were used in industry before the war, and de facto slavery (forced labour and other legal fictions) were used after the ACW.

They weren't used more because there was a limited supply of slaves. Cotton agriculture was so damn profitable (returns of 16 to 20 percent per annum) that cotton planters could usually outbid anyone else for slaves. Including other agriculturalists (eg tobacco). When cotton prices were lower, industrialists were able to compete with other uses (tobacco, again) for the limited supply of slaves.

This is why I'm highly sceptical of slavery expanding into the Western territories, even if the slave power did get it legally allowed. Changes in geography just mean you're not going to get agricultural produce there that can compete for slaves with the Deep South. The inevitable consequence of that is that it's only a matter of time before free states control all the branches of government.
 
The US is not as great a power as it would later be so it would very much be under the influence of outside forces, at the outside I would say that slavery in the US would last around as long as it did in Brazil IE to around 1890, after that(And before) it would be a political millstone to large to handle and would actually hinder the development of the US to the same degree as it did Brazil IE Home political pressures would keep out both investment and make boycotts of US goods a very real thing.
All in all by the time Slavery is remove both de facto and for real in 1890+ US development and economic strength would be less than it was OTL + US political influence would be even less than its relative economic strength would suggest.
 
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