Longest Possible American Civil War?

Just the title. How long can the American Civil War last without the South being recognized as its own nation, and without anything à la North + South Korea happening?

What would the effects of this be?
 
That criteria means that the South must still lose--just as slowly as possible... Some key events/PODs might include:

--Sniper near White House around the time of Balls Bluff that has Union troops stationed on the lawn yelling at Lincoln to keep his fool head down...actually takes out the President
--Jackson not killed by his own sentries
--Amanipation Proclamation doesn't occur to Lincoln
--West Virginia not artificially created by Lincoln
--Hooker bungles (even worse) at Antietam, allowing South even closer to DC; more Union troops tied up for the duration protecting capital region
--failing the above, Stuart not lost/disoriented during Gettysburg
--CSS Hunley more successful; fleet of subs breaks the relatively makeshift blockade fleet
--casualties at Cold Harbor not withheld from the public by Lincoln; more widespread draft riots
--with greater Southern success, Great Britain decides to guarantee safe passage to Bermuda and beyond for her trading partners; naval war breaks blockade
--Grant not selected for command
--and this one I have not thought about before now--may be impossible: Merrimac turns to port instead of starboard, steams up Potomac and pummels downtown Washington DC (just a thought, probably not that significant even if possible)
 
You really can't stretch the South's ability to fight much farther than OTL to my view. Certainly without some of the more foolish decisions the army might have had more troops left, but they are still going to collapse in terms of economy and supply around when they did. Probably the best way to extend the war militarily is some kind of Union failure during the Vicksburg campaign, but I'm really not familiar enough with the details to propose a mechanism for this...

The best way I see to get a longer lived Confederacy is to delay Fort Sumter. If you can have a longer lead in, perhaps some period of negotiations you can certainly get the Confederacy existing as a de facto state for some longer period (thought the actual fighting wouldn't necessarily change all that much). That said, you run the real risk of getting some kind of international recognition if the Union start treating the seceded states as anything other than a rebellion.
 
--Amanipation Proclamation doesn't occur to Lincoln
Hard to believe. Slavery was an obvious target in any attack on the secessionist economy.

--and this one I have not thought about before now--may be impossible: Merrimac turns to port instead of starboard, steams up Potomac and pummels downtown Washington DC (just a thought, probably not that significant even if possible)

Insignificant militarily, though it might have been a noticeable propaganda event. But if memory serves, she drew too much water. I'll look it up when I get home; I have a book on that mentions the possibility.
 
Another thought. The conventional war couldn't last much longer than it did - maybe a couple more months if Lee escapes the encirclement at Appomattox. However, there is the specter of guerrilla warfare. Had the main leadership of the Confederacy not acquiesced (mostly) to reintegration after the surrender of the armies, and rather encouraged hold-out resistance, violence could have gone on for a longer time.
 
Had the main leadership of the Confederacy not acquiesced (mostly) to reintegration after the surrender of the armies, and rather encouraged hold-out resistance, violence could have gone on for a longer time.

I almost wonder if the outcome of something like this might not end up better for African Americans in the long run...
 
Depending on how we view OTL it could be said the Civil War started with Bleeding Kansas and ended with the paramilitary successors of the Klan forcing the Compromise of 1877.
 
-1862: Bragg senses weakness after the Perryville battle and takes Louisville. Cinncinnati, St Louis, Indianapolis, and even Chicago wonder what will come of this and fear grips Little Egypt/Souther Indiana/Southern Ohio as Morgan raids Carbondale and BRagg sends a raiding force to Indianapolis.
-1862: in response the Union dispatches more troops West and allows Lee to make more gains in the Shenandoah Valley, along with a few counties in West Virginia. Confederate currency maintains strength longer and despite the fall of New Orleans the South still makes a few purchases overseas. Indianapolis is gripped in panic thinking Bragg will burn the state, in reality the force he sent is a distraction but causes those Union troops in Indiana to begin returning home for fear of their homes being overrun. Ohio troops and those from southern Illinois begin doing the same and morale is low after a Union state capital is directly threatened.
-1863: Redeployment of Union forces slow the retaking of Virginia and make Kentucky a killing field. Springfield, Columbus, and Jefferson City demand and get large Union garrisons comprised largely of native troops. This gives Lee some needed breathing room and allows for the Potomac to become a definite border with skirmishes in western Virginia cause more troops to be drawn there.

Overall the war is delayed a year at most with more Confederate support in Kentucky and a delay elsewhere. But the South loses and the punishment is even more horrific because of the increased bloodshed.
 
--Amanipation Proclamation doesn't occur to Lincoln
--

The Emancipation Proclamation didn't just occur to Lincoln. The abolitionist wing of his party had been pressuring him to take a stronger stand against slavery since the war began. A longer war would make emancipation and enlisting free black troops more tempting.
 
* - Sherman's wounds from Shiloh turn septic and he dies. Without his encourgement Grant resigns after being sidelined by Halleck.

or

* - Hood is mortally wounded at Chicamauga. Without Hood's undermining, Johnston stays in charge and Atlanta does not fall until after the 1864 elections, which go to McClellan.
 
I might note that any scenario where George S. McClellan wins will actually lead to a longer civil war. Little Mac would not want to beat Lincoln just to be the man who broke up the USA, and he would try for the idiot damn fool stupid concept of trying to reverse emancipation in hopes that this would conciliate and moderate the South. That would indeed lead to a longer war as per this scenario and probably an extremely ugly and nasty postwar scenario that's a bit too nightmarish to go into in further depth.
 
We start by enlargening the incompetence at Norfolk naval yard. CSA captures more stores and especially more ships completely intact. They are quickly fitted as raiders and make it out to sea before the Union can enforce a proper blockade. The Union blockade will be weaker since more vessels will be needed to chase CSA raiders. The CSA can get some cotton out and some guns and powder in.

CSA promises Frane to support Maximilian. While Napoleon III does not want to enter the war without Britain by his side (and the Brits will not go to war to support a slave nation), he allows the CSA some credits and discount purchases of arms, especially artillery. Much is smuggled from French-held ports in Mexico to Texas and Louisiana.

Farragut steams into fire in April 1862, and USS Hartford is hit in its powder magazine, exploding and sinking with nearly all hands lost, including Farragut. The attempt to capture New Orleans is a failure. CSA retains one of its largest cities and best ports. The lack of support from the south and a substantial navy on the Mississippi will delay the Vicksburg campaign a lot. The addition of with French arms well-armed Texans and Lousianians together with the industries (as they are) of New Orleans and Jackson (which is not destroyed as early) improves the CSA ability to fight in the west.

The economy is much better (although still bad) because of the later tightening of the blockade and French credits and New Orleans still being in CSA hands. The hyper-inflation of the CSA dollar does not start off until late 1863, and is not as bad as OTL.

With less USA ships (since some are losr at New Orleans and several have to chase raiders), more Confederate ships (having New Orleans and less Union ability to attack ports and harbour forts), the CSA coast is less harrassed and thus needs less garrison and produces more for CSA.

USA now faces a grueling slow land campaign on three fronts - Virginia, Kentucky and down the Mississippi. It might take them until 1867 or even 1868 before they finally force the last CSA army to surrender.
 
CSA promises Frane to support Maximilian. While Napoleon III does not want to enter the war without Britain by his side (and the Brits will not go to war to support a slave nation), he allows the CSA some credits and discount purchases of arms, especially artillery. Much is smuggled from French-held ports in Mexico to Texas and Louisiana.
I'm interested in this one, but who is Frane? Do you mean France? Also how late into the war could the CSA make this promise because it sound like a nice detail I could use for a TL I'm working on with a POD in 1864.
 
The longest possible civil war would be a war that didn't quite go hot for a long time. Lots of cross-border raiding and sea-fighting, but no actual victory or death slugging match. Pinprick warfare.

I can't think of any way to make that happen.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The war could have lasted considerably longer if the South had not made the incredibly stupid decision in 1861 to halt the exporting of cotton. I think this decision inflicted more harm on the Confederacy that any other single decision. Without the income that the Confederates would have earned on cotton exports run through the blockade, both in terms of government revenue by export duty and larger economic income, inflation ran rampant. And it was inflation, more than the guns of Union soldiers, that killed the Confederacy.

More directly, if Lee had not been such an overly aggressive commander, both on a tactical level (Malvern Hill, Pickett's Charge) and strategic level (Maryland Campaign, Gettysburg Campaign), the Confederates would have been able to maintain a much stronger fighting force in Virginia for a longer time than they did IOTL.
 
I'm interested in this one, but who is Frane? Do you mean France? Also how late into the war could the CSA make this promise because it sound like a nice detail I could use for a TL I'm working on with a POD in 1864.

I meant France.
 
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