Longest and Shortest Possible Sengoku Jindai

For those of you who have not spent more than 20 hours playing Shogun 2 since Christmas:

The Sengoku Jindai, or warring states period lasted for most of the 16th century in Japan. It was characterized by near constant warfare between the rival feudal lords (Daimyo) with all seeking to expand their lands, and a few striving to become the new Shogun. At various points in the conflict different clans were ascendant, with the Oda clan under Oda Nobunaga and the Toyotomi clan under Toyotomi Hideyoshi coming the closest to seizing power in a conflict ultimately won by the Tokugawa clan under Tokugawa Ieyesu.

The conflict involved not just feudal warfare, there was a strong religious element present. On the main island (Honshu) there was a significant uprising of peasants and master-less samurai who followed the radical Ikkō-ikki sect of Buddhism, while on Kyushu and other regions Catholicism made significant inroads. Ultimately religious unification followed political unification: The Ikkō-ikki were crushed militarily, while Christianity forbidden and critically undermined by the complete seclusion of Japan that followed.

So, what is the shortest and longest plausible "Age of Warring States" that Japan could go through during the 16th century? Was there ever a possibility of a non-Shinto dominated Japan emerging? No POD earlier than 1467 or later than 1600.
 
I'm not sure on shortest. But a good way to prolong the Sengoku Jidai might be to screw over Oda Nobunaga. He conquered most of Japan in a very short time and his sucessor just finished his work.
If you can make Oda Nobunaga not so lucky at Okehazama then Japan would be in a five way power struggle between Imagawa, Takeda, Uesugi, Hojo and Mori. Imagawa Yoshimoto was an arrogant sod so I doubt he would keep his power when he reached Kyoto.
 
Imagawa Yoshimoto was an arrogant sod so I doubt he would keep his power when he reached Kyoto.

If Imagawa had reached Kyoto, would he have deposed the current Shogun and demand that the Emperor appoint him in his stead. Or would he have kept Ashikaga Yoshiteru as a figurehead while concentrating on expanding his base of power in central Honshu?

One thing I have a hard time understanding was the reluctance of the nearby powerful Daimyo to depose the Shogun take power for themselves. Unlike the Emperor the Shogun was not regarded as a divine figure, his position was akin to a hereditary military dictator.
 
It is hard to say what Yoshimoto would have done if he reached Kyoto. He was quite the traditionalist (one the last families to still paint their faces white and draw their eyebrows at the top of his head) so he probably would've kept the current Shogun in.

I think the main reason people were unwilling to depose the Shoguin as such was the lineage the Ashikaga shogunate shared with the Minamoto. Many clans were powerful but proving they shared lineage with the Minamoto or Taira wasn't so easy. ONe had to be in the capital with access to records to make such claims.

If Yoshimoto united the land then he probably would make himself Shogun. But personally I don't think he had the brains for that.
 
Foreign influences, deeper and more involved - more christian daimyos? - would have factored one way or the other maybe...
 
Foreign influences, deeper and more involved - more christian daimyos? - would have factored one way or the other maybe...

I think a Christian Daimyo is doable. I know that the Daimyo of the Shimazu actually tolerated Christianity in his domains for a bit before giving in to pressure from the Buddhist monks.

A figure with Oda Nobunaga's religious preferences would be most likely to embrace Christianity, in my opinion. A Daimyo eager to embrace western military technology and military doctrine, and intensely suspicious, if not dismissive of the Shinto religious establishment. However, such a figure would have a much harder time unifying Japan, so it would have to be a Daimyo in a relatively remote area of the country, one with limited territorial ambitions,connections to the Portuguese. The Otomo or Ouchi would seem to have been the most likely, in my opinion. Both of them hosted Francis Xavier and had close connections to the Portuguese traders.

As for foreign influences, the Spanish would be the only ones with the might to intervene, but I don't think they would have the capacity, let alone the interest to take more than a secondary role. Anyone other than a religious fanatic surveying the situation would have to realize that Japan was a fractured feudal society, but that the prospect of outside intervention would be more likely to result in Japan's unification under a hostile regime.

Ming intervention during this time period would be quite unlikely, beyond a few retaliatory raids against the Wako pirates (who were often in league with, if not employed by ambitious Daimyo. The Ming simply were too inwardly focused at this time to be bothered with intervening in the affairs of their nominal tributary.
 
The Spanish can't intervene : Japan is just outside thir sphere of influence, due to the treaty of Zaragoza.
Beside, by that time they are more busy conquering an empire in the Americas and fighting the Netherlands in Europe.
 
The Spanish can't intervene : Japan is just outside thir sphere of influence, due to the treaty of Zaragoza.
Beside, by that time they are more busy conquering an empire in the Americas and fighting the Netherlands in Europe.

I agree a Spanish direct intervention (i.e. an army of Spaniards) in Japan is unlikely in the extreme. However, the arrival of small groups of Spaniards sharing their expertise and cannons is not. Especially if the Jesuits pushed the issue enough, I would be surprised if the Crown of Spain could not find a galleon or two to the aid of some Daimyo under the right circumstances.

In any kind of set piece naval battle a single galleon could probably send any fleet that even the most powerful daimyo could equip to the bottom of the sea. Not that there were many decisive naval battles during this time period.

The Treaty of Zaragoza did put Japan outside of Spain's sphere of influence, but I was under the impression that it was largely a dead letter after the Iberian Union was in effect during this period.

What would be very interesting to me would be if such contact brought about any kind of exchange between the blademasters of Japan and the swordsmiths of Toledo. Great two-handed swords were going out of style in Europe at this time, but katana-style blades were well suited to slicing through the lightly armed men that made up armies at this time. Unlike Damascus Steel making, the type of steel-folding practiced by Japanese sword smiths could be imitated, though it was a time consuming process.
 
The Portuguese did intervene on behalf of Omura Sumitada once, but it was only to protect him from another daimyo whose name I can't remember. Even though, it was only the Portuguese Navy involved.
Althought even with foriegn help, he would never have united Japan. He was too theocratic for that. He did afterall desecrate his own ancestors graves for not being Christian. He even destroyed Buddhist idols in his own land too.
 
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