alternatehistory.com

Strictly speaking, the last good chance for the Qing to reform was in 1898 under the Guangxu Emperor and the Hundred Days' Reform. However, as the Qing didn't actually fall until 1911, I'll leave this question here.

Imagine a world where the Qing Dynasty survived. Presumably, the Empress Dowager dies early, and the Boxer Rebellion never reaches Beijing, so there's no foreign intervention, or at least, no foreign intervention in the capital. Perhaps the Dowager Empress Cixi and her supporter Yuan Shikai die earlier as well. Either way, the Guangxu Emperor comes back to power, and institutes reform. 1911 passes with the Qing attempting to suppress the many rebellions, with the Xinhai Revolution failing. How long can they continue then?

Contrast this with Dr. Sun Zhongshan's Guomindang (KMT) Party. Imagine a world where Yuan Shikai dies earlier (if you can't tell, I do not view Yuan in a favorable light), and the Guomindang is not dissolved. Instead, men like Sun Zhongshan and Song Jiaoren have a better hand when it comes to ruling China. Would the Nationalists have a better chance against the various warlords who would have opposed them (e.g. Duan Qirui, Cao Kun, Zhang Xun, etc.)? If the Nationalists had managed to become a government over all China, rather than being forced out early by Yuan in 1913, would they be able to unify China, or would the Warlord Era be inevitable?

So, to make a post short, which is more likely to produce a stable China: A) the 1900 death of Cixi and Yuan Shikai, with the restoration of the Guangxu Emperor, or B) the death of Yuan Shikai in early 1913 and the greater success of the Nationalists?
Top