Longer Qing vs. KMT China: Which one could last longer?

Strictly speaking, the last good chance for the Qing to reform was in 1898 under the Guangxu Emperor and the Hundred Days' Reform. However, as the Qing didn't actually fall until 1911, I'll leave this question here.

Imagine a world where the Qing Dynasty survived. Presumably, the Empress Dowager dies early, and the Boxer Rebellion never reaches Beijing, so there's no foreign intervention, or at least, no foreign intervention in the capital. Perhaps the Dowager Empress Cixi and her supporter Yuan Shikai die earlier as well. Either way, the Guangxu Emperor comes back to power, and institutes reform. 1911 passes with the Qing attempting to suppress the many rebellions, with the Xinhai Revolution failing. How long can they continue then?

Contrast this with Dr. Sun Zhongshan's Guomindang (KMT) Party. Imagine a world where Yuan Shikai dies earlier (if you can't tell, I do not view Yuan in a favorable light), and the Guomindang is not dissolved. Instead, men like Sun Zhongshan and Song Jiaoren have a better hand when it comes to ruling China. Would the Nationalists have a better chance against the various warlords who would have opposed them (e.g. Duan Qirui, Cao Kun, Zhang Xun, etc.)? If the Nationalists had managed to become a government over all China, rather than being forced out early by Yuan in 1913, would they be able to unify China, or would the Warlord Era be inevitable?

So, to make a post short, which is more likely to produce a stable China: A) the 1900 death of Cixi and Yuan Shikai, with the restoration of the Guangxu Emperor, or B) the death of Yuan Shikai in early 1913 and the greater success of the Nationalists?
 
Definitely B. The Warlord Era can be completely avoided.

Alright, but how is Sun going to defeat the Beiyang Army and its associated warlords? I mean, now that I think about it, the Nationalists lost against Yuan Shikai, not exactly a great military leader, so are they going to be able to do well against the other leaders and keep everything under control?
 
You could have the would-be warlords proclaim their loyalty to the KMT, or at least a few of the more important ones. They could marginalize those military leaders that do choose to become warlords, and then defeat them in short order.

The Qing might be able to hold on and reform, but this is hard because unlike the KMT they can't start from scratch but have to work at least somewhat within the confines of a system in fundamental need of modernization, and as long as the structure stays intact, there will be a lot of reactionary elements hiding within. It is easier and more likely for the KMT/ROC, which reinvents the Chinese government from the ground up, to reform successfully and ensure stability provided it can survive the initial hurdles.
 
What about a hybrid option, where the young Emperor is retained in name as a constitutional monarch, but with Sun Yat-sen and company as the Prime Minister and Cabinet of the "Empire" and with them controlling the boy's education?

Would that option, if possible, prevent the splintering of China into warring factions and eventually bring about a China strong enough to prevent a Japanese invasion?
 
I don't mean to self-promote, but option B is pretty much what happens to China in my TL, The Colonial Oil Craze. Russia becomes stronger thanks to the discovery of oil reserves in Siberia and parts of the Caucasians earlier than in OTL; this strengthens Russia and bolsters their economy after losing to Japan in 1905. A stronger Russia leads Sun Yat-sen to decide to stay in office instead of offering his post to Yuan Shikai. China becomes a more stable nation thanks to reforms set in place (or, at least, started) by Sun Yat-sen. Boom-no warlord era.
 

KGBeast

Banned
absolutely B there is one veriable that CKS has to do and it goes with the old proverb you don't lose what you don't gamble. IF CKS hadn't gambled all his forces on a lightning strike of Manchuria or not halted when pressured by Sec of State Marshall it is very likely the KMT would still be in the power today, remember it was the only legitimate government of China recognized by the world, so no invasion means two China's, one run by the KMT over most of the mainland and one by Mao over the Northeast and Manchuria.
 
absolutely B there is one veriable that CKS has to do and it goes with the old proverb you don't lose what you don't gamble. IF CKS hadn't gambled all his forces on a lightning strike of Manchuria or not halted when pressured by Sec of State Marshall it is very likely the KMT would still be in the power today, remember it was the only legitimate government of China recognized by the world, so no invasion means two China's, one run by the KMT over most of the mainland and one by Mao over the Northeast and Manchuria.

Thank you for not reading my post. I asked whether the Nationalists under Dr. Sun (Zhongshan) could maintain control over China, not whether the Nationalists under CKS/Jiang Zhongzheng could keep all of China in one piece.
 
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