Longer live... Lack of Miracle of the House of Brandenburg .

PoD
Elizaveta Petrovna lived one year longer.
Short time changes
- Miracle of the House of Brandenburg never occurred
- In Europe Aliance of France , Austria , Sweden and Russia was won Seven Years' War
- Prussia lost his political position and was partitioned
* Silesia for Austria
* Pomerania for Sweden
* Magdeburg , Halle and Halberstadt for Saxony
* East Prussia for Russia (exchanged with RON* for Courland)
* Parts of Rheinland and Belgium for France
Later time changes
-In 1767 Famila (Czartoryski’s) created Wilanów Confederation (King Stanisław August Poniatowski joined) against Radom Confederaton**. Fight against Russian occupation had strong nobels support (even some Radom Confederates joined). France (as Bar Confederation in OTl) were supporting.
- In 1773 confederation is almost crushed but started Pugashev Revolt. Tsaris army divided on three tronts couldnt stopp rebelion, rebels gained Moscow and Pugashev proclaimed himself as tsar.
- During that Tsarina was on Turkish front and rebels started march to Petersburg. Horrified Local nobels asked Sweden king Gustav III for help. He agreed and gained Estonia , Ingria and Karelia . Probably will stop on that but in short time was visited by Polish confederates delegation and... ‘miraculous saved Peter III’. In Petersburg were signed Alliance between RON, Sweden and ‘Peter III’.
- Pugashev as in OTL were betrayed by cossacs. ‘Race to Moscow’ was won by Swedes
- Catherina put all her forces to fastly end of war witch Turkey. And signed peace weaker than in OTL
- Tsarina is in critical situation , treasury were gained by Swedes in Petersburg , she controled only small territory (tax collection) when had big hungry army where simply soliders were infected by rebel propaganda and officers were feared for their estates (robbed by rebels or given to sweden nobels supporting ‘Peter III’).

What do u thing about that??

* Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth
**In OTL created against king with his reforms to defend catcholic faith and old privlages (controlled by tsarina ambassador Repnin) byt king was forced to join to that chich lead to sejm 1767 and Poland bacame Russian protectorate, against that were Bar Confederation.
 
It's a good idea, but would be better if further fleshed out.

So from what I see the entirety of Pomerania goes to Sweden, Austria gets Silesia back, Saxony gains the Altmark and Magdeburg, and Russia gets East Prussia to be exchanged for Courland with its puppet Poland.

The British could also be forced to give up claims in North America, meaning New France stays intact.
 
But war in America didnt succecfull for France and Prussia began to lose because George III didnt intrested in Europe and put all forces to America.
 
But war in America didnt succecfull for France and Prussia began to lose because George III didnt intrested in Europe and put all forces to America.

With Prussia lost as a major power, Britain loses its major continental ally and thus a lot of bargaining power.
 
With Prussia lost as a major power, Britain loses its major continental ally and thus a lot of bargaining power.

This is a very interesting what if. There's a pretty strong likelihood that the diplomatic revolution will be reversed and Austria rejoins with Britain, as the France-Russia bond is pretty unshakeable.

However, a lot will depend on what happens in Western Europe in terms of the France-Hannover battle once Prussia falls. If France manages to get the Austrian Netherlands in the subsequent peace, there will be little keeping Austria and France togther. If she doesn't then she may hold out the alliance to get it at a later time, perhaps in return for supporting Austria's upcoming claims to Bavaria.
 
This is a very interesting what if. There's a pretty strong likelihood that the diplomatic revolution will be reversed and Austria rejoins with Britain, as the France-Russia bond is pretty unshakeable.

However, a lot will depend on what happens in Western Europe in terms of the France-Hannover battle once Prussia falls. If France manages to get the Austrian Netherlands in the subsequent peace, there will be little keeping Austria and France togther. If she doesn't then she may hold out the alliance to get it at a later time, perhaps in return for supporting Austria's upcoming claims to Bavaria.

I could see the Diplomatic Revolution reversing with the French alliance victorious; Austria sees the Southern Netherlands threatened again and without a threat to it from the north, its new allies may prove to be unreliable for its purposes. And this is the period of the stately quadrille, where states exchanged allies as kings did dance partners.

Britain might decide to focus its energies elsewhere, and with New France still in French hands the Thirteen Colonies will be less audacious.
 
I forgot about Philip, Duke of Parma because Austria in Verailes Treaty agreed to create independent Soutch Netherlands state with Philip as ruller for French help in retrieve the Silesia.
SavoyTruffle could u explain why "the Thirteen Colonies will be less audacious" ?? Because i feel that French-Sweden-Austria forces could defeat Hanoverians... :D.
 
I forgot about Philip, Duke of Parma because Austria in Verailes Treaty agreed to create independent Soutch Netherlands state with Philip as ruller for French help in retrieve the Silesia.
SavoyTruffle could u explain why "the Thirteen Colonies will be less audacious" ?? Because i feel that French-Sweden-Austria forces could defeat Hanoverians... :D.

They could easily curb-stomp Hanover and with Prussia done as a Great Power Britain can't force France to give up its colonies.

Thus with New France intact and Lousiana remaining in French hands the threat of French encirclement is very real, and thus the murmurs of independence that will be caused by British taxation, if as OTL, will be more muted in the face of France preventing British expansion.
 
If Hanover will be conquered probably UK will negotiate because Blood is thicker than water Top , and we have to remember what from dynasty is George III.
 
I could see the Diplomatic Revolution reversing with the French alliance victorious; Austria sees the Southern Netherlands threatened again and without a threat to it from the north, its new allies may prove to be unreliable for its purposes. And this is the period of the stately quadrille, where states exchanged allies as kings did dance partners.

Britain might decide to focus its energies elsewhere, and with New France still in French hands the Thirteen Colonies will be less audacious.

Bear in mind that Austria didn't particularly want the Southern Netherlands, and was desperately trying to swap it for something more defensible. In the pre-war agreement, they agreed to give it to the Bourbons in exchange for Silesia and Parma, so they may simply honour that. I think they would definitely accept the swap if they also got France to recognise its claims in Bavaria, so it may be enough to extend the alliance. That would likely mean the UK would have to have a string of other allies: probably rump Brandenburg, Sweden, Saxony, Hanover of course, the Netherlands - a protestant alliance. Maybe the Ottomans also?

They could easily curb-stomp Hanover and with Prussia done as a Great Power Britain can't force France to give up its colonies.

I'm not convinced Hanover is done for. Prussia wasn't helping Hanover much against France, and it's not clear Austria would want to press on after its war aims in Silesia had been achieved. Hanover was quite useful to Austria as it kept the French out of Germany, which it wanted as its own stomping ground.

If Hanover will be conquered probably UK will negotiate because Blood is thicker than water Top , and we have to remember what from dynasty is George III.

However, George III painted himself as British against his German father and grandfather, so this isn't that clear. Also, if the British don't put out peace feelers before Hanover falls, they are unlikely to do it immediately afterwards. They've lost everything they're going to in Europe, so they may as well continue fighting in the colonial spheres, particularly picking up New Orleans and further Caribbean islands.
 
True, so even with Hanover under French occupation I can see it being handed back to Britain. The resulting French victory gets the Austrian Netherlands under French control, and thus Britain will likely try closer ties with the Dutch Republic as both have France on their necks.
 
So as at the bigining , war in colonies ended same like in OTL.
What do u thing about next parts of my ATL?
 
So as at the bigining , war in colonies ended same like in OTL.
What do u thing about next parts of my ATL?

French plans to increase the population of New France and Louisiana to prevent being overrun by British?

A revolution in Germany, likely centered in Prussia, or Austria if Joseph II's reforms cause as much furor?
 
So as at the bigining , war in colonies ended same like in OTL.
What do u thing about next parts of my ATL?

Sorry, I'm struggling to follow some of your timeline due to translation difficulties. Could you explain this a bit more?

"In 1767 Famila (Czartoryski’s) created Wilanów Confederation (King Stanisław August Poniatowski joined) against Radom Confederaton**. Fight against Russian occupation had strong nobels support (even some Radom Confederates joined). France (as Bar Confederation in OTl) were supporting."

Who are the Wilanow Confederation and the Radom Confederation? What has caused this change?

Also, I'm not following what you mean about Peter III. Was he not assassinated as in our timeline?

French plans to increase the population of New France and Louisiana to prevent being overrun by British?

They're not likely to be too successful, considering the order of magnitude population differences between the British and the French there.

A revolution in Germany, likely centered in Prussia, or Austria if Joseph II's reforms cause as much furor?

Can't see Prussia having a revolution. The bourgeosie aren't doing badly there, and neither are peasants in the appalling poverty of France at this time.

Austria's monarchy would also be much more popular after successfully gaining Silesia back, and with Bavaria on the cards. Also, revolutions are hard to do in countries with large minorities, as the majority are usually more distrustful of the minority than their leader.

What would be interesting is the effects in the Netherlands. The Patriots fought strongly against involvement in the war and the Stadtholder buckled to them. After it ended up with the French on their borders, the Patriots will probably be marginalised and the Stadtholder might become more powerful.
 
With a stronger Stadtholder the Republic could evolve into a de jure monarchy.

And a revolution could be in time for many states - but with the strongest candidate for a revolution (France) having little reason to do so...

Spain, perhaps?
 
Who are the Wilanow Confederation and the Radom Confederation? What has caused this change?
Wilanow Confederation is fictional about Radom Confederation i wrote a little , and here u have in wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radom_Confederation
And Wilanow Confederarion will created and leaded by Familia (political 'party' leaded by Czartoryski magnate family)

Also, I'm not following what you mean about Peter III. Was he not assassinated as in our timeline?
Ofc is death , in my TL too , but in Russia is long tratition of 'miraculously saved' tsars (look e.g. all False Dmitriy or Anastasia). It means ppl who talking that they are 'miraculous saved' tsars. Even Pugashev were talking that he was Perer III.
 
With a stronger Stadtholder the Republic could evolve into a de jure monarchy.

Agreed - this is very likely. At the time everyone thought monarchies were the natural state of government, and we've butterflied the United States (at least for now).

And a revolution could be in time for many states - but with the strongest candidate for a revolution (France) having little reason to do so...

Spain, perhaps?

Bear in mind that the French Revolution didn't happen for another 30 years until after the POD in OTL, so they still have time to screw up. Their fiscal system is still catastrophically flawed, their political system is not willing to expand power to the midde class, they have a lot of radical thinkers, and there's a huge mass of urban poor. Something's going to break, sooner or later, although it could turn out very different.

Spain is one possibility, with many similar features, although I think they lack the urban poor (would be grateful for someone else to correct me?). A revolution here is likely to be crushed by the French due to the Bourbon connection though. Perhaps their colonies are another likelihood?

Russia is also potentially ripe, with Moscow and St. Petersburg as large cities of poor people, and a lot of disenfranchised groups. It's often ignored, but the Kingdom of Naples has many similar features to France in this period.
 
Top