Long-term repercussions of Fernando VII having a son?

So I'm planning a new project set in the 19th century (a sort of revival of the Miracle King) and while doing some research I came up with this idea: what if Fernando VII had a son to succeed him? Obviously this would mean two things: a regency and no civil war between his widow and brother. But what else would this mean? From what I've read, in order to gain support, the Queen Regent Maria Christina allowed many of the exiled liberals to return to Spain, gaining her cause supporters. With these liberals remaining in prison and exile, would Spain be a more conservative country or would it end up having a repeat of the revolution of the 1820s? Would Spain be a stronger country with no civil war or would it continue to decline as a Great power? What about the Liberal Wars in Portugal? Would active help from Spain allow King Miguel to win the war against his brother? Or would Spanish support have no real affect on the situation? Basically what long-term repercussions would come from Fernando VII having a son?
 
In this order:

Would Spain would ultimately end up being more conservative than it ended up being throughout the 19th century? Probably so, and probably not. Assuming Ferdinand VII has a son, let's call him Ferdinand (so the future Fernando VIII) it would largely depend on who would have the greater influence, the more conservative father (and possibly brother) or the more liberal-leaning mother.

Will it be a stronger nation? Yes? Will it remain a Great Power? No...OTL Spain at the time, while still having some degree of credibility in diplomatic affairs, is too wrecked economically and prestige-wise by the loss of darn near its entire colonial empire. Plus Spain's infrastructure is an absolute nightmare at this time. I can see a stronger Spain looking to reclaim GP status, but it's going to need a great deal of reform to do so.

As for the Liberal Wars, since it is going to be happening at this time, largely depends. Spain had been supporting the Miguelite faction before Isabel II took the throne in 1833 (and switched sides the following year when the Carlists started supporting the Miguelites). A surviving son could and probably would continue to support the Miguelites. How much would it change...a lot actually. Because France supported the Liberals once the July Monarchy came to power...with the Bourbon Restoration technically continuing under Henry V, that basically boils support down to just Great Britain and whatever volunteers Belgium has available, assuming Belgium even gets independence as per OTL. Would the Miguelists win however, now that is a good question...
 
In this order:

Would Spain would ultimately end up being more conservative than it ended up being throughout the 19th century? Probably so, and probably not. Assuming Ferdinand VII has a son, let's call him Ferdinand (so the future Fernando VIII) it would largely depend on who would have the greater influence, the more conservative father (and possibly brother) or the more liberal-leaning mother.

Will it be a stronger nation? Yes? Will it remain a Great Power? No...OTL Spain at the time, while still having some degree of credibility in diplomatic affairs, is too wrecked economically and prestige-wise by the loss of darn near its entire colonial empire. Plus Spain's infrastructure is an absolute nightmare at this time. I can see a stronger Spain looking to reclaim GP status, but it's going to need a great deal of reform to do so.

As for the Liberal Wars, since it is going to be happening at this time, largely depends. Spain had been supporting the Miguelite faction before Isabel II took the throne in 1833 (and switched sides the following year when the Carlists started supporting the Miguelites). A surviving son could and probably would continue to support the Miguelites. How much would it change...a lot actually. Because France supported the Liberals once the July Monarchy came to power...with the Bourbon Restoration technically continuing under Henry V, that basically boils support down to just Great Britain and whatever volunteers Belgium has available, assuming Belgium even gets independence as per OTL. Would the Miguelists win however, now that is a good question...

I think chances are Spain would definitely be more conservative. Queen Maria Christina only became "liberal" when she needed their support against her brother-in-law and she never really showed any real subsequent support for them. Chances are she'd ignore them and they wouldn't have any real role in Spanish politics for a good while.

I agree with you, at least partially, on this one. Spain was wrecked internally and needed to rebuild its infrastructure and economy. My question is could industrial modernization happen with a conservative, absolutist government. Personally I think its possible, once those at the top accept it. Look at Russia, its Tsarist system was the most absolute in Europe but by 1914 it was well on its way to outdoing even Germany's industrial complex. Assuming that there are at least a few conservatives who can see the value of industry, then chances are Spain would follow OTL Isabelle II's reign in terms of railways, telegraphs and other industries.

Portugal is one of those I see as a major key in the region. Even if Anglo-French support continues, Spain is in a much better position to give aid. From what I can tell Portugal's situation at that time was basically a standstill, with both factions dug in. While the Miguelists did OTL surrender, that could change with Spanish support. At the very least they were in a position to maintain control of a good half of the country if they chose to dig their heels in. Really the key would be to continue the war until Britain got sick of it and disengaged. Orléans France on its own wasn't in a position to continue the support.

So basically, if the cards are played right, we could see a French Legitimist movement backed by conservative Spain and Portugal. Could be highly interesting.
 
The question to my mind, of course, is how long can Maria Cristina retain that regency? Especially once her connection to Agustin Munoz comes out. She married him rather soon (Dec. 1833) after D. Fernando VII's death OTL (Sept. 1833). With Carlos not making war on her, he's going to be the next obvious candidate for the regency if she needs replacing when news of her secret marriage goes public. IIRC, the only reason a lot of people tolerated it as long as they did was because the only other option was a man who was "more royalist than the king and more Catholic than the pope", and they finally got out of the impasse by declaring Isabel of age ahead of schedule, so as to dispense with the regency.
 
I think chances are Spain would definitely be more conservative. Queen Maria Christina only became "liberal" when she needed their support against her brother-in-law and she never really showed any real subsequent support for them. Chances are she'd ignore them and they wouldn't have any real role in Spanish politics for a good while.

I agree with you, at least partially, on this one. Spain was wrecked internally and needed to rebuild its infrastructure and economy. My question is could industrial modernization happen with a conservative, absolutist government. Personally I think its possible, once those at the top accept it. Look at Russia, its Tsarist system was the most absolute in Europe but by 1914 it was well on its way to outdoing even Germany's industrial complex. Assuming that there are at least a few conservatives who can see the value of industry, then chances are Spain would follow OTL Isabelle II's reign in terms of railways, telegraphs and other industries.

Portugal is one of those I see as a major key in the region. Even if Anglo-French support continues, Spain is in a much better position to give aid. From what I can tell Portugal's situation at that time was basically a standstill, with both factions dug in. While the Miguelists did OTL surrender, that could change with Spanish support. At the very least they were in a position to maintain control of a good half of the country if they chose to dig their heels in. Really the key would be to continue the war until Britain got sick of it and disengaged. Orléans France on its own wasn't in a position to continue the support.

So basically, if the cards are played right, we could see a French Legitimist movement backed by conservative Spain and Portugal. Could be highly interesting.

Again, assuming the French even would support the Liberals ITTL, which since it's Legitimist, would not.With Franco-Spanish support, really like you said, it would only last as long as Britain isn't tired of the fight and quits the war.

However one thing I should take of note though, is the potential threat of an 1848 analogue. Obviously of course, the idea of Absolute Monarchy isn't going to be favored for much longer in the face of Social Democracy. Even if we're going to go for a Limited Constitutional Monarchy (of which the closest analogue to this would be the Kingdom of France itself at the time), there will still be the issue of the belief that either King should reign and not rule, or worse, that the monarchy as an institution be removed as far as Spain is concerned. This will be something that will need to be settled with upon the accession of Ferdinand VII's male successor to the throne.

Another thing I should actually make a case of, you said that industrialism is key, and you are right, as the economies of Britain, France and Prussia was helped by the industrial revolution. Now the issue is, where are we getting the Spanish industrialists from? Spain has the resources, it had coal and iron, two major components needed to develop industry along similar lines to the above mentioned countries. It also had a textile industry in Catalonia, but that's about it.

Long story short, it will need to find ways to placate the masses, have the liberals in government without them utterly changing the system too ridiculously, and also build the crucial infrastructure needed to develop Spain economically.
 
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