Long Term Ramifications of an surviving Burgundy

I see a lot more intermarriage within Iberia, maybe including Navarre. Joanna may have a Portuguese marriage as well.
Would Burgundy be such a powerhouse to prompt France and the Hapsburgs to intermarry as a counter to it? It would be an interesting, albeit not very likely, twist.
Also, independent Burgundy might well find Luther's ideas worth considering.

I honestly forgot about Navarre :eek:. I always thought of it as french LOL. A French -Habsburg alliance may not be totally out of the question, from what I red and remember their rivalry mainly started over the Burgundian inheritance. So without it to fight over they could be closer.
 
I honestly forgot about Navarre :eek:. I always thought of it as french LOL. A French -Habsburg alliance may not be totally out of the question, from what I red and remember their rivalry mainly started over the Burgundian inheritance. So without it to fight over they could be closer.

Well, not overtly hostile, but chances are they'd clash over Italy down the line.
 
:rolleyes:
Well, not overtly hostile, but chances are they'd clash over Italy down the line.

Do you mean over Milan or Naples? Because Naples was independent.... well heavily influenced by Aragon but still independent. Would Burgundy surviving make Charles VIII not try to conquer Naples or not, thats the question. Also I'm not sure but I think it was the Valois-Orleans that had a claim to Milan, not the main Valois line so I'm not sure where the problem in Italy is. Of course the main line could still go extinct and Louis XII would then press his claims to Milan and possibly Naples, but even if he did The Habsburgs weren't that interested in Italy until they inherited Naples and Sicily.
 
:rolleyes:

Do you mean over Milan or Naples? Because Naples was independent.... well heavily influenced by Aragon but still independent. Would Burgundy surviving make Charles VIII not try to conquer Naples or not, thats the question. Also I'm not sure but I think it was the Valois-Orleans that had a claim to Milan, not the main Valois line so I'm not sure where the problem in Italy is. Of course the main line could still go extinct and Louis XII would then press his claims to Milan and possibly Naples, but even if he did The Habsburgs weren't that interested in Italy until they inherited Naples and Sicily.

Milan is still HRE in theory, so it can become a flashpoint. Charles would likely go for Naples regardless of Burgundy (if anything, he had more to worry in that area IOTL) with probably similar results. I don't see the Hapsburgs to worry much about Naples if they don't marry into the Trastamaras, and I see no compelling reason for them to do so if they don't inherit Burgundy in the first place.
Actually, you won't see a primitive European balance forming as early as it did IOTL without the Hapsburg gigantic dynastic compact. ITTL, You'd probably have dynastic alliances on a more regional level, with more structured early modern states emerging. It has to be seen how all this affects the Ottoman expansion (lot of butterflies before Mohacs) and how Italy plays out.
My bet is a unified Iberia that comes to include Naples and Sicily. Valois lines would likely unify at some point, generating a big powerful France+Burgundy thing, that at this point can squabble with an Hapsurg+Jagiellon Eastern powerhouse. At this point the two can fight over paramountcy in Northern italy and Western Germany, basically a situation fairly close to OTL TYW anticipated by half a century. Austria-Bohemia(-Poland?) allied with England and Iberia versus France-Burgundy(-Milan?) allied with Scotland and either Sweden, Denmark or both would be the most likely alliance structure you'd see by 1580 or so, but there so many variables...
 
Milan is still HRE in theory, so it can become a flashpoint. Charles would likely go for Naples regardless of Burgundy (if anything, he had more to worry in that area IOTL) with probably similar results. I don't see the Hapsburgs to worry much about Naples if they don't marry into the Trastamaras, and I see no compelling reason for them to do so if they don't inherit Burgundy in the first place.
Actually, you won't see a primitive European balance forming as early as it did IOTL without the Hapsburg gigantic dynastic compact. ITTL, You'd probably have dynastic alliances on a more regional level, with more structured early modern states emerging. It has to be seen how all this affects the Ottoman expansion (lot of butterflies before Mohacs) and how Italy plays out.
My bet is a unified Iberia that comes to include Naples and Sicily. Valois lines would likely unify at some point, generating a big powerful France+Burgundy thing, that at this point can squabble with an Hapsurg+Jagiellon Eastern powerhouse. At this point the two can fight over paramountcy in Northern italy and Western Germany, basically a situation fairly close to OTL TYW anticipated by half a century. Austria-Bohemia(-Poland?) allied with England and Iberia versus France-Burgundy(-Milan?) allied with Scotland and either Sweden, Denmark or both would be the most likely alliance structure you'd see by 1580 or so, but there so many variables...
That sounds sooo cool!!!!:D I wonder how that would effect the refermation.I can see protestant french nobles being granted asylum or aid in brgundy just to piss of th Ed french king.... just thought of something, which valois line was senior: the Valois- Angoulême (Francis I's line) or the valois-bugundy? Getting back to the reformation in otl the dutch republic became calvinist so would burgundy tollorate half its kingdom being protestant or would the rulers themselves convert? We could see Henri IV's famous quote "Paris is worth a mass" just from a different ruler.
 
What are its borders? I could see longterm Burgundy becoming more and more Flemish dominated if they continued to rule the low country domestically. Also what are they? Have they become King of Burgundy, Lotharingia, or something else? because thats also very important as to their impact.
Would they? I mean the old flemish nobility was francophone even today was it different under the house of Burgundy?
 
Would they? I mean the old flemish nobility was francophone even today was it different under the house of Burgundy?

Well most were and are bilingual (even in the periods when they mostly spoke French), but certainly since the Burgundian dukes the prestige language was French and I must admit they also preferred to speak French too.

(Ironically in the period when the Western Frankish nobility was in the process of switching from their ancestral Germanic Frankish to the local Romance (what later came to be known as French), there was a period, where they sent their children north to be educated by relatives, which retained the language of their ancestors).
 
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That sounds sooo cool!!!!:D I wonder how that would effect the refermation.I can see protestant french nobles being granted asylum or aid in brgundy just to piss of th Ed french king.... just thought of something, which valois line was senior: the Valois- Angoulême (Francis I's line) or the valois-bugundy? Getting back to the reformation in otl the dutch republic became calvinist so would burgundy tollorate half its kingdom being protestant or would the rulers themselves convert? We could see Henri IV's famous quote "Paris is worth a mass" just from a different ruler.

Burgundy will be surely receptive to the Reformation, but:
a) Reformation itself would be different from OTL without the massive Hapsburg moloch.
b) Its form and extent would be highly affected by the ruler's policies.
If the Burgundian ruler is not the Emperor, which I think is the likeliest scenario, he would be the second most powerful in the HRE and as such obviously interested in weakening the Hapsburgs. This can take two forms:
1) endorse reformation, assuming a role similar to OTL Saxony.
2) ally with the Wittelsbachs (i.e. marry them) to create an anti- Hapsburg Catholic power block.

Third possibility, a mix of the above.
Moreover, Burgundy would gain a lot of useful and rich lands and towns with the secularization of ecclesiastical stuff in the nearby areas. Bishoprics of Liege, Utrecht, Mainz, Koln, Treves, Metz, Toul, Verdun, and some others nearby are obvious targets. Their very existence makes the rulers of Burgundy very sympatethic to Reformation out of opportunism.
 
Burgundy will be surely receptive to the Reformation, but:
a) Reformation itself would be different from OTL without the massive Hapsburg moloch.
b) Its form and extent would be highly affected by the ruler's policies.
If the Burgundian ruler is not the Emperor, which I think is the likeliest scenario, he would be the second most powerful in the HRE and as such obviously interested in weakening the Hapsburgs. This can take two forms:
1) endorse reformation, assuming a role similar to OTL Saxony.
2) ally with the Wittelsbachs (i.e. marry them) to create an anti- Hapsburg Catholic power block.

Third possibility, a mix of the above.
Moreover, Burgundy would gain a lot of useful and rich lands and towns with the secularization of ecclesiastical stuff in the nearby areas. Bishoprics of Liege, Utrecht, Mainz, Koln, Treves, Metz, Toul, Verdun, and some others nearby are obvious targets. Their very existence makes the rulers of Burgundy very sympathetic to Reformation out of opportunism.

Very interesting. I agree on most points except that the Reformation would be different. The Church will still have the same problems as OTL, hell the Reformation might spread faster with Habsburgs weaker than OTL. I'd imagine that the Burgundians would do something similar to England, ie stay Catholic, disolve the monasteries, and Bishoprics and replace the Pope with the King/Duke as Head of the Church. How would Burgundy going protestant effect them possibly inheriting France. I know that Henri IV converted to get the French Throne but Navarre was worth much less than France while Burgundy would control all of the Low Countries, the north of witch became largely protestant in OTL. SO with a larger protestant population would the Burgundian ruler convert to Catholicism or fight for the throne without converting?
 
Very interesting. I agree on most points except that the Reformation would be different. The Church will still have the same problems as OTL, hell the Reformation might spread faster with Habsburgs weaker than OTL. I'd imagine that the Burgundians would do something similar to England, ie stay Catholic, disolve the monasteries, and Bishoprics and replace the Pope with the King/Duke as Head of the Church. How would Burgundy going protestant effect them possibly inheriting France. I know that Henri IV converted to get the French Throne but Navarre was worth much less than France while Burgundy would control all of the Low Countries, the north of witch became largely protestant in OTL. SO with a larger protestant population would the Burgundian ruler convert to Catholicism or fight for the throne without converting?
Whit such butterfly what make you think the reformation will happend as per OTL?
 
If Burgundy survives, they'll take on the "Empire's Biggest Troll" role until they get the Imperial Crown (though with a 15th century POD it's still possible to wrest it from the Habsburgs).

So it depends on what them Austrians do with regards to the Reformation, regardless if it's started by a disgruntled Saxon monk or a posh Swiss cleric.
 
If Burgundy survives, they'll take on the "Empire's Biggest Troll" role until they get the Imperial Crown (though with a 15th century POD it's still possible to wrest it from the Habsburgs).

So it depends on what them Austrians do with regards to the Reformation, regardless if it's started by a disgruntled Saxon monk or a posh Swiss cleric.

Like I said here in a previous post, that member of the house of Valois-Burgundy will need a different character than OTL Charles the Bold. Not only could his dealings with the emperor have been done better, but he also instead of befriending the prince-electors managed to alienate them.
Furthermore the must be seen as one of them and not too French, that they were mainly Francophone wouldn't matter that much, so were the Luxembourgs.

Now depending on the success of other dynasties, maybe the Habsburg still succeed in Central Europe, we could also get a kind of duopoly.
 
Whit such butterfly what make you think the reformation will happend as per OTL?

Well the Church's main problems are still there, as is the Roman Curia's refusal to reform. So Someone I feel that someone will do something similar to Martin Luther, if not Luther himself. It might be earlier, or it might be later but someone is going to go frustrated enough to pen a protest against clerical abuses, which is what the Ninety-five theses was, a written protest.
 
A simple POD that could have resulted in an independent Burgundy surviving would have been if Mary the Rich had been born a male. Let’s say Philip IV is born in 1457 giving Charles the Bold an heir to continue his dynasty. The existence of a son could have possibly changed the way Charles pursued his goals. In OTL, Charles the Bold approached his plans with almost no regard as to how Mary would rule Burgundy after he was dead. Charles tried to do too much in one lifetime and wound up putting Burgundy in dire straits. But if he had a son, he could have afforded to be more patient in his plans to expand Burgundy.

Charles the Bold could have married his son to a daughter of Louis XI. In OTL, Louis XI betrothed his daughter Anne to Charles, with Champagne and Ponthieu as dowry. In this scenario, those counties could have been added to Burgundy. Even if Charles were killed in battle, the presence of an adult son trained to rule would have been able to prevent the disasters that occurred to Mary in OTL. Philip IV, assuming he is more patient than his father, could have negotiated a truce with Louis XI lasting until Louis’s death. If Louis still dies in 1483, then Philip IV can lead the French princes in a war against Charles VIII of France to reduce royal authority. In OTL, Louis XI made Anne the regent for Charles VIII, but in this scenario I doubt Louis would make the Duchess of Burgundy regent of France.

If Philip IV were able to use a civil war in France to force Charles VIII to release him from his feudal obligations, then Philip could focus his attention on the Holy Roman Empire. Philip could form an alliance with Archduke Maximilian that ensures that in return for money from Philip, Maximilian (upon becoming Emperor) will create a kingdom for Philip. This kingdom of Burgundy would still need to keep an eye on France in this scenario but (in alliance with England, the French princes, the Habsburgs, and possibly Castile/Aragon) would have the making of a formidable nation.
 
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