Long term impact of German Philippines - Plausibility Check/Timeline planning thread

I read a thread about Operational Plan Three recently, which is what brought this to my mind. In it, somebody mentioned that the Germans really wanted The Philippines and were angry that the Americans got it first. This piqued my interest, since I have a light quarter for homework coming up, and was looking for a good premise for a TL (my last one was sort of a disaster because I hit impenetrable writer's block). I started brainstorming and came up with this brief outline for a timeline, but before I delve deep into research and start writing, I wanted to make sure that the TL is at least relatively plausible. Here's what I got so far:

There is no Spanish-American War. I don't see this as being too implausible, since pro-war sentiment in the US was largely trumped up by the media. Maybe a slightly earlier POD to focus media attention elsewhere, or perhaps McKinley (who was initially anti-war until it became clear that public opinion was against him) manages to assuage American anger and cooler heads prevail. Cuban War of Independence continues. Not sure if I should have them succeed or not. I'm thinking probably not because similar independence movements had been crushed in Cuba over the previous several decades. The Philippines fall into chaos, with rebels fighting the Spanish army the same way they did the Americans during the Philippine-American War. Puerto Rico and Guam remain Spanish for now.

A few years later (I'm thinking 1900 or 1901), Germany finds some reason to bully Spain into a war (I'm going to keep that vague until I figure out how to do it. If anybody has any suggestions for a potential casus belli let me know.). They proceed to go pretty much what the US did. They dismantle the Spanish Empire, taking Puerto Rico, Guam, and Cuba (if Spain still owns it). In The Philippines they take advantage of the chaos, supporting the rebels and then taking the islands for themselves (just like the Americans did). The US doesn't exactly like having Germans in the Caribbean, but there's not much they can do about it militarily. Besides that the Monroe Doctrine says no new colonies, it doesn't say anything about one country taking colonies from another. None of the other European powers get involved. However they might officially condemn Germany's actions depending on the casus belli.

Fast forward to 1914ish. War breaks out. Not exactly like OTL WW1 due to butterflies, but more or less the same conflict. Same sides, same outcome. Germany maybe does a little better because its troops have more battle experience than OTL, but it is still ultimately defeated. The main differences are in the Pacific. In OTL, Japan played a relatively minor role in WW1, but still managed to gobble up all of Germany's Pacific holdings. ITTL, they take a much more active role and launch a full scale invasion of The Phillipines in addition to their other minor actions. This is successful because the Filipinos weren't exactly pro-German, and Germany had other things on its mind. Japan also gets Guam. Puerto Rico and Cuba (once again, this is assuming that Cuba lost its war of independence, which I'm still not sure about) are either (a) captured by the British, (b) captured by the Americans, or (c) sold to the initially neutral Americans as soon as war breaks out to prevent them from being captured by the British.

So now it is 1919, give or take a year or so. The world's geopolitical situation is roughly the same as it was in OTL except that Japan has a big new colony in The Philippines. For the sake of argument, let's keep the butterflies to a minimum. Russia goes Communist, A-H breaks up, Germany ends up being ruled by fascist Nazi-analogs, and Japan is just as militaristic (if not more so due to their increased role in WW1). So a WW2-like conflict breaks out in the late 1930s or early 1940s. Up to now, this TL's differences were relatively minor, but now a massive divergence occurs. In OTL, the US imposed an oil embargo on Japan. ITTL, US interests in the far east are greatly decreased, so they might not. But let's say the US does anyway due to their interests in China and their good relationship with the Allies. In OTL, Japan had to get oil from the Dutch East Indies. Unfortunately, there was an American Philippines standing between them and the oil. Thus they had to go to war with the US in order to get take The Philippines and then get to the oil in the Dutch East Indies. But if Japan already owns The Philippines, there is no reason to go to war with the US. So Japan takes the Dutch East Indies without too much dificulty. After that . . . well that's really as far as I've gotten. Japan has conquered pretty much everything that it did in WW2, but the US is not involved in the war yet. Germany is doing about as well as they did in OTL, although maybe a little better or a little worse depending on butterflies and how competent the various leaders are. The US President is either deperately searching for a suitable casus belli (if he is an FDR-analog) or happy that the US has not yet been drawn into the war (if he is an isolationist).

Thoughts? Corrections? Is this plausible? Obviously I've kept butterflies to a minimum here, but as I thresh out the TL I'm sure that they will crop up here and there. If there is interest, I plan to start writing sometime next week.

EDIT: Just re-read and realized how long this is. So much for a brief outline. :rolleyes:
 
I read a thread about Operational Plan Three recently, which is what brought this to my mind. In it, somebody mentioned that the Germans really wanted The Philippines and were angry that the Americans got it first. This piqued my interest, since I have a light quarter for homework coming up, and was looking for a good premise for a TL (my last one was sort of a disaster because I hit impenetrable writer's block). I started brainstorming and came up with this brief outline for a timeline, but before I delve deep into research and start writing, I wanted to make sure that the TL is at least relatively plausible. Here's what I got so far:

There is no Spanish-American War. I don't see this as being too implausible, since pro-war sentiment in the US was largely trumped up by the media. Maybe a slightly earlier POD to focus media attention elsewhere, or perhaps McKinley (who was initially anti-war until it became clear that public opinion was against him) manages to assuage American anger and cooler heads prevail. Cuban War of Independence continues. Not sure if I should have them succeed or not. I'm thinking probably not because similar independence movements had been crushed in Cuba over the previous several decades. The Philippines fall into chaos, with rebels fighting the Spanish army the same way they did the Americans during the Philippine-American War. Puerto Rico and Guam remain Spanish for now.

A few years later (I'm thinking 1900 or 1901), Germany finds some reason to bully Spain into a war (I'm going to keep that vague until I figure out how to do it. If anybody has any suggestions for a potential casus belli let me know.). They proceed to go pretty much what the US did. They dismantle the Spanish Empire, taking Puerto Rico, Guam, and Cuba (if Spain still owns it). In The Philippines they take advantage of the chaos, supporting the rebels and then taking the islands for themselves (just like the Americans did). The US doesn't exactly like having Germans in the Caribbean, but there's not much they can do about it militarily. Besides that the Monroe Doctrine says no new colonies, it doesn't say anything about one country taking colonies from another. None of the other European powers get involved. However they might officially condemn Germany's actions depending on the casus belli.

Fast forward to 1914ish. War breaks out. Not exactly like OTL WW1 due to butterflies, but more or less the same conflict. Same sides, same outcome. Germany maybe does a little better because its troops have more battle experience than OTL, but it is still ultimately defeated. The main differences are in the Pacific. In OTL, Japan played a relatively minor role in WW1, but still managed to gobble up all of Germany's Pacific holdings. ITTL, they take a much more active role and launch a full scale invasion of The Phillipines in addition to their other minor actions. This is successful because the Filipinos weren't exactly pro-German, and Germany had other things on its mind. Japan also gets Guam. Puerto Rico and Cuba (once again, this is assuming that Cuba lost its war of independence, which I'm still not sure about) are either (a) captured by the British, (b) captured by the Americans, or (c) sold to the initially neutral Americans as soon as war breaks out to prevent them from being captured by the British.

So now it is 1919, give or take a year or so. The world's geopolitical situation is roughly the same as it was in OTL except that Japan has a big new colony in The Philippines. For the sake of argument, let's keep the butterflies to a minimum. Russia goes Communist, A-H breaks up, Germany ends up being ruled by fascist Nazi-analogs, and Japan is just as militaristic (if not more so due to their increased role in WW1). So a WW2-like conflict breaks out in the late 1930s or early 1940s. Up to now, this TL's differences were relatively minor, but now a massive divergence occurs. In OTL, the US imposed an oil embargo on Japan. ITTL, US interests in the far east are greatly decreased, so they might not. But let's say the US does anyway due to their interests in China and their good relationship with the Allies. In OTL, Japan had to get oil from the Dutch East Indies. Unfortunately, there was an American Philippines standing between them and the oil. Thus they had to go to war with the US in order to get take The Philippines and then get to the oil in the Dutch East Indies. But if Japan already owns The Philippines, there is no reason to go to war with the US. So Japan takes the Dutch East Indies without too much dificulty. After that . . . well that's really as far as I've gotten. Japan has conquered pretty much everything that it did in WW2, but the US is not involved in the war yet. Germany is doing about as well as they did in OTL, although maybe a little better or a little worse depending on butterflies and how competent the various leaders are. The US President is either deperately searching for a suitable casus belli (if he is an FDR-analog) or happy that the US has not yet been drawn into the war (if he is an isolationist).

Thoughts? Corrections? Is this plausible? Obviously I've kept butterflies to a minimum here, but as I thresh out the TL I'm sure that they will crop up here and there. If there is interest, I plan to start writing sometime next week.

EDIT: Just re-read and realized how long this is. So much for a brief outline. :rolleyes:
Actually, Japan funded the independence movement in the philippines...
 

Germaniac

Donor
Germany will likely Sell Cuba and Puerto Rico to the Americans in you scenario

HOWEVER A) the spanish AMerican war grew out of the Cuban revolt so its unlikely the spanish could havee held it long enought... B) The American will never allow a new colonial power in the americas, they almost went to war in venezuala to keep it that way
 
B) The American will never allow a new colonial power in the americas, they almost went to war in venezuala to keep it that way

I agree.

However, the peace terms may include a passage which ensures that the US get the right to buy the Spanish colonies left in America, yet Germany gets a nice share of the buying price.
 
Actually, Japan funded the independence movement in the philippines...

Really? I didn't know that. Well I suppose they can fund a Filipino independence movement against Spain and Germany just as easily as they did against Spain and the US, right?

HOWEVER A) the spanish AMerican war grew out of the Cuban revolt so its unlikely the spanish could havee held it long enought...

I realize that the Spanish-American War was an outgrowth of the Cuban revolution. I just don't know if that revolt would have been successful without American intervention. I mean, the Cubans had revolted at least twice before and both times the rebellion had been put down. I see no reason why that wouldn't happen this time. Unless this rebellion was on a larger scale than the previous ones, I really don't know. I'll have to do more research on the revolution in Cuba, which is why I left the subject open.

B) The American will never allow a new colonial power in the americas, they almost went to war in venezuala to keep it that way

I agree.

However, the peace terms may include a passage which ensures that the US get the right to buy the Spanish colonies left in America, yet Germany gets a nice share of the buying price.

Yeah, I didn't think that the Americans would be to happy with German colonies in the Americas, but I wasn't entirely sure how to handle it. Although the Venezuela thing is a good example of how it could have played out. Maybe the Germans take the Spanish Caribbean possessions in the peace treaty, but the US expresses their extreme displeasure. The US doesn't want a rival in the Caribbean, but Germany isn't going to want to give up islands that were presumably bought with the blood of German soldiers. Tensions go throught the roof, and Germany and the US nearly come to blows over the issue. Then at the last moment, negotiators come to an agreement: Germany will benevolently grant their new colonies independence (This allows Germany to save face. They didn't let the US bully them into selling, they simply allowed people who wanted to be independent to be so out of the kindness of their hearts.), the US will compensate Germany financially for this action. Essentially the US has just bought the islands' independence. Of course, those islands will almost immediately fall into the American sphere of influence, but will technically remain independent. Does that sound realistic?
 
Japan would not get the Phillippines, a Catholic people, as a colony. They may, however, get a League of Nations Mandate (although again, that seems iffy).

Hrmm.
 
Japan would not get the Phillippines, a Catholic people, as a colony. They may, however, get a League of Nations Mandate (although again, that seems iffy).

Hrmm.

Well then what would happen to the Philippines after a WW1-analog? Would the British take it? Or the French? I just figured that the Japanese taking it would be the logical result since they took most of the rest of the German Pacific possessions. Granted those were a lot smaller, but I don't see why the Japanese couldn't have taken something bigger like the Philippines. If they capture it in the war, are their European allies really going to try to wrest it away from them in the peace treaty? That could get messy, because I doubt Japan will want to give it up.
 
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