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Falecius
In the First Javanese War of Succession the Javanese and Dutch were more-or-less equally matched in almost all military fields except for naval warfare. Even in the late 18th century, Dutch observers believed that if the two South-Central Javanese kingdoms (which didn't even control half of Java by this point) united, the VOC would be defeated. The primary cause of Mataram's collapse in the 18th century is its structural instability - as I think Victor Lieberman said, "there was no Dutch War of Succession" that the Javanese could take advantage of, while Mataram's last decades are full of civil wars. This is something that a ruler can change and Mataram may well endure like Aceh or the mainland states. Until the Industrial Revolution, that is, but that's already a century's worth of butterflies...