Long term Development of Spanish America if Napoleon doesn't invade Spain

Assuming Napoleon opts to replace 1 Bourbon with another instead of injecting his family into Spain, Portugal will fall and Napoleon likely wont be defeated without the Spanish Ulcer. So, assuming at some point the British sue for peace, how does Spanish South America develop over the 1800s in general?
 
Then the UK will still see Spain as a enemy. There was a plan known as the Maitland plan which was the basis to San Martin campaings. If they used a good general(maybe Wellington who knows:cool:) to conquer Buenos Aires, then they would be likely to succeed.
 
Then the UK will still see Spain as a enemy. There was a plan known as the Maitland plan which was the basis to San Martin campaings. If they used a good general(maybe Wellington who knows:cool:) to conquer Buenos Aires, then they would be likely to succeed.

Why would they succeed when their last two attempts failed?

This is actually a real problem, because the development of Spanish America seems fairly contingent on the collapse of Spain. Even in OTL there were a lot of efforts to keep them all tied together. I think you'd see growing disaffection, proposals for Bourbon kings (especially with the Braganzas in Brazil), etc. But beyond that? Hrm...
 
Could the winners partition Spain and France's empires in America?

Britain gets Argentina, Chile, and Central America (to make a canal).
Prussia gets Venezuela.
Austria gets Bolivia and Peru.
Portugal gets French Guiana.
The Netherlands gets the French West Indies, Colombia, and Ecuador.
Spain allowed to keep Mexico, Cuba, Santo Domingo, and Puerto Rico.

Probably ASB, but I still like the idea. I would have proposed this at the Congress of Vienna if I was there. :p
 
Both the US and the UK will see Spain as an enemy in the longer run. Add to that the homegrown independence movement in the Spanish colonies, I don't see them lasting all that long.
 
Both the US and the UK will see Spain as an enemy in the longer run. Add to that the homegrown independence movement in the Spanish colonies, I don't see them lasting all that long.

Is this necessarily so? Notice how the British preferred the Spanish keep Cuba to America.

I also think we should note that Spain made a much, much greater effort to accommodate its colonies than Britain ever did, to the point of giving them representation in the Spanish Parliament in the 1810s. And even in OTL, the Spanish managed to suppress a lot of the rebellions initially; Mexico was basically subdued once again in the first half of the 1810s, only to spring up again. This was despite the fact that spain was exhausted from being a battlefield for over a decade.
 
Is this necessarily so? Notice how the British preferred the Spanish keep Cuba to America.

That was when Spain only had Cuba and Puerto Rico left. A little diversity in the Caribbean prevented it from becoming an American lake, but ITTL the issue is that Spain now controls trade in South America.
 
Is this necessarily so? Notice how the British preferred the Spanish keep Cuba to America.

I also think we should note that Spain made a much, much greater effort to accommodate its colonies than Britain ever did, to the point of giving them representation in the Spanish Parliament in the 1810s. And even in OTL, the Spanish managed to suppress a lot of the rebellions initially; Mexico was basically subdued once again in the first half of the 1810s, only to spring up again. This was despite the fact that spain was exhausted from being a battlefield for over a decade.

It's worth noting the 1812 Constitution even DID give Hispanic Americans representation! The key is to give them BETTER representations, since the count was deliberately stacked against them. :p
 
Well, how is it prevented? Does Charles IV remain in power? Ferdinand VII overthrows him but Napoleon does not intervene? Somebody has a sudden attack of common sense and kills Godoy?
 
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