Long Live The Dragon of the East

As a forenote, this idea is not refined.

I've always had a love for the great empires of China, their dynasties and court rituals, the prestige of the Emperor and so forth. This brought me to alternate-history; where I have... Literally never seen one goddamn example of where Imperial China lived without being some European nations' buttmonkey (which doesn't at all make it alternate, does it?). Anyways I'm intending on researching the Great Qing and I'm wondering from all of you before I start on my timeline.

How could Qing have survived, and better, how could she have been strong enough to rebuke various European and Japanese incursions into her empire?

Also hai, new guy, be gentle.
 
Firstly, Welcome to AH.com!
In order to get the Qing to not devolve in to said continent's "Butt Monkey", there would need to be some major tech reforms done during the 18th century to be able to hold it's ground come the 19th. IIRC, some of the reason Europe thought they could take advantage of China was because the British Delegation in the 1790's meet the last strong Emperor of the dynasty in his later years. By this point he was ill and weak, and this was reflected on the Empire as a whole.
If you can change the timing of the delegation, or the health of the Emperor at the time, might be a small divergence that could give larger ramifications down the road.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Take a look at the "Eastern" nation states that survived

Take a look at the "Eastern" nation states that survived the era of European imperialism as examples:

China - Survived (sort of) because none of the Europeans were willing to open multiple Pandora's boxes regarding outright conflict in, over, and with China;

Japan - Survived because they out-Europeaned the Europeans, basically;

Persia - Survived because they were a buffer state and the regional Pandora's Box element;

Ottoman Empire - Similar situation to Persia (big old Pandora's Box; pretty much defined the "eastern question" as a question) and they (at times) were a useful ally to one or more European powers against one or more OTHER European powers;

Thailand - Buffer state;

Ethiopia - Poor, remote, and yet still able to roll over one of the two European powers that invaded in this period;

Afghanistan - Poor, remote, and a buffer state par excellance; pretty much defines the term;

That's about it.

Some sort of mixed approach by a centralist Chinese government worth the name might work.

Can the Chinese offer an alliance - worth bothering with - to a European patron? Czarist Russia, perhaps?

The British want to trade/exploit; the Japanese want to (eventually) conquer; the other Western Europeans want to trade; what do the Russians want from China? Territorial concessions, obviously, but can the Chinese offer something else, enough to fend off Russian advances?

Is there a possible quid pro quo?

I dunno, but if there is, that may be your answer.

Best,
 

PhilippeO

Banned
not all Qing problem is military, it had other problem too.

1 ) Qing had series of enviromental disaster. according to 1493 book by Charles C Mann, new crop Potato, Corn and Sweet Potato enable more highland farming, causing erosion and flood.

2 ) Qing Confucian ideal is minimal government. It had relatively low taxes, and many government function is usurped by powerful local families. An official from imperial examination, will be appointed to county of several hundred thousand to million people, he must depend on local power and bureaucracy to run anything. so there are limit of what central Imperial government can do.

3 ) Qing military also degraded by very long peace. A Ming survivor in Taiwan or South China might helped Qing military keep its edge.
 
Maybe have Kangxi decide after the Russians try to take the Amur River area in the 1640s/1650s that the Celestial Kingdom needs to learn more about their barbarian opponents. Make his grandson Qianlong continue the modernization program with some industrialization, maybe pushing into modern Siberia and forcing cession of everything east of Lake Baikal or the Ob River and/or taking over Indochina. By 1800 China might be on the verge of an Industrial Revolution and in a position to dominate if not outright annex Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Indochina, Siberia, and much of Central Asia.
 

RousseauX

Donor
How could Qing have survived, and better, how could she have been strong enough to rebuke various European and Japanese incursions into her empire?
All things considered the Qing did a fairly good job of resisting European and Japanese incursions, after all, between 1842-1911, the Qing formally lost no territory, and it left a geopolitical position such that its successor states were able to reclaim all territories of the Qing empire except for Mongolia. This applied even to the peripheries such as Xinjiang and Tibet and Manchuria.

Consider China of 1880, and compare it to the Ottoman Empire of the same era, you'd figure the Ottomans would be way better off territoriality-wise by 1950. The fact that China got out of the era of imperialism without any significant territorial loss is pretty good testament to the Qing's ability to hold the country together and play off the foreigners against each other.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Maybe have Kangxi decide after the Russians try to take the Amur River area in the 1640s/1650s that the Celestial Kingdom needs to learn more about their barbarian opponents. Make his grandson Qianlong continue the modernization program with some industrialization, maybe pushing into modern Siberia and forcing cession of everything east of Lake Baikal or the Ob River and/or taking over Indochina. By 1800 China might be on the verge of an Industrial Revolution and in a position to dominate if not outright annex Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Indochina, Siberia, and much of Central Asia.
Why would he do that? The Russians of 1640s/1650s were no more, arguably less advanced than the Chinese empires. Emulating the west made sense if this was 1850 and the west was represented by Britain and the US who were clearly superior militarily but that's not the case here.

and/or taking over Indochina.
Why would this end up better than all the other attempts over the last 1000 years?
 

RousseauX

Donor
How could Qing have survived, and better, how could she have been strong enough to rebuke various European and Japanese incursions into her empire?
Get rid of the Taiping rebellion, or limit its scope. Maybe killing off Hong early on enough might have done it and made the Taiping rebellion more like the dozen other rebellions of the era instead of the single cataclysmic event which threatened to destroy the Qing and made everyone in the Qing government scared of change for a generation.

It would have also kept the Qing military forces under central government control instead of being decentralized and delegated to provincial gentries (which incidentally paved the way for the era of the warlords in the 20s).
 

RousseauX

Donor
Can the Chinese offer an alliance - worth bothering with - to a European patron,
This is by far the most interesting option, and could probably be done with a pragmatic court in Beijing even if they are simultaneously resistant to reforms, but which country should China choose to be its patron?

Choosing Britain might be a bad because it's strong enough to possibly turn the dragon throne into an eastern puppet: a Chinese Raj.

Choosing Russia might help, but how is Russia going to counter the Royal navy bombing Shanghai or Guangzhou?

France might be a good choice, but ultimately you need to choose a patron who:

1) Get more benefit from cooperating with you than what they would get from collaborating with Britain in colonizing China, and enough benefits so its worth defending China from everyone else.

2) Not to be so strong so that it doesn't become a singular hegemon/de facto controller of the Chinese government.

3) But still strong enough to deter other powers from sending in ships or troops to enforce the unequal treaties.

This is a pretty thin line to walk on. You need someone both strong enough and weak enough. But ironically enough I actually think it could be done.

But keep in mind that by choosing a patron, you are basically giving up the option to play the foreign powers off against each other, and if the patron happens to lose a war that you have no control over in Europe or the Americas....well....things might not be very pleasant.
 
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TFSmith121

Banned
True - but what sort of makes Russian appealling is the

This is by far the most interesting option, and could probably be done with a pragmatic court in Beijing even if they are simultaneously resistant to reforms, but which country should China choose to be its patron? ... You need someone both strong enough and weak enough. But ironically enough I actually think it could be done. But keep in mind that by choosing a patron, you are basically giving up the option to play the foreign powers off against each other, and if the patron happens to lose a war that you have no control over in Europe or the Americas....well....things might not be very pleasant.

True - but what sort of makes Russia appealling is the concept that the Russians have already been down the road of "modernizing to meet Europe" ever since the days of Peter the Great; so they can function (somewhat) as a model for the Chinese.

Centralist autocrats think alike, true?

In terms of defense, Russia's basic default is to use time and distance against a "Western" invader (whether Pole, German, Swede, or what have you); the parallels with China's geo-strategic situation seem obvious.

The analogy is more than a little forced, but if Japan in the Nineteenth Century is an Asian "Britain" than China certainly seems more like an Asian "Russia" than Germany or France.

Not sure if that makes the Koreans the Irish for Japan, or the Poles for China...

Best,
 
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The Superpower Empire TL seems to have what you're looking for. Basically, the Qing get replaced by a new imperial dynasty instead of the OTL Republic, which manages to avert the warlord period and the Communist regime and advance China's development by fifty years.
 
All things considered the Qing did a fairly good job of resisting European and Japanese incursions, after all, between 1842-1911, the Qing formally lost no territory, and it left a geopolitical position such that its successor states were able to reclaim all territories of the Qing empire except for Mongolia. This applied even to the peripheries such as Xinjiang and Tibet and Manchuria.

Actually, a lot. Outer Manchuria, part of Xinjiang on the east bank of the Balkhash, and arguably Korea and Vietnam, since Japan and France did fought with China to get them.

A big problem is nationalism. It was a convenient reason to hate the Qing for Han Chinese and distrust Han Chinese people for the Qing court. Qing actually banned firearms after they took over China because they can easily remove the advantage of their cavalry army against revolting peasants.
 
This is an issue I have been interested in exploring further, particularly if the Chinese are able to enforce their version of a 'Monroe' Doctrine in SE Asia.

Fascinating butterflies...
 
Speaking of Persia and Thailand, these states while both buffer states, also had to play Europeans in order to keep the delicate balance. If you can get a Chinese Emperor who is willing to play the European Powers (keep in mind there is still a significant amount of wealth in China) could assure taking every advantage that the Europeans offer to sway China to their side. This might be able to keep China on a stable footing, and keep independent into the modern age.
 
The British were actually quite impressed with Qing modernisation and even thinking- in extremely vague terms - of their potential worth as an ally, right up until the debacle of the 1895 war.
If Cixi threw her weight behind the self-strengthening movement, possibly allowing Li Hung Chang to unify the armies under a single coherent command then they might have beaten Japan.
That means Korea probably retains independence, albeit firmly within the Chinese sphere of influence and the traumatic years of the turn of the century would be butterflied as well.
The Qing slowly push on, maybe negotiating tariff reform and an end to the unequal treaties as early as the mid 1910s. After all, Britain and the US mainly wanted access to China's markets and even OTL by the twenties there was a recognition that the unequal treaties might be getting in the way of that.
 
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