Logistics of a liberation of the UK

I suspect that the RN in home waters would sail for Canada. Those ships elsewhere would probably put themselves at the disposal of the other dominions.

In any case the US can within a few years build a fleet to rival the RN if it needs to.
 
Who would be in a position to betray the Empire, when Moseley and other fascists were all interned?

My view is that Sealion is only theoretically possible with Quislingesque betrayal from within. You need an earlier POD than 1940 for this to happen. One possibility would be Edward VIII deciding to keep Simpson as a mistress and to marry for convenience and to keep Bertie off the throne.
 
In terms of Ireland and Sealion, there was already agreements and plans between London and Dublin for Ireland to enter the war on the Allies side in case of an invasion of the UK from memory. That being said the capabilities of Ireland around Sealion wouldn't have added anything major to the defences. However I suppose the question might be how much damage the German invasion force would take defeating the UK (in terms of ships, landing craft, planes) as to how quickly they could turn around and invade Ireland, could the Commonwealth mobilise enough (and assuming UK forces retreated to Ireland) to make things difficult for a follow on invasion?

And of course the question of what the US would do in the event of a defeated UK?
 
In terms of Ireland and Sealion, there was already agreements and plans between London and Dublin for Ireland to enter the war on the Allies side in case of an invasion of the UK from memory. That being said the capabilities of Ireland around Sealion wouldn't have added anything major to the defences. However I suppose the question might be how much damage the German invasion force would take defeating the UK (in terms of ships, landing craft, planes) as to how quickly they could turn around and invade Ireland, could the Commonwealth mobilise enough (and assuming UK forces retreated to Ireland) to make things difficult for a follow on invasion?

And of course the question of what the US would do in the event of a defeated UK?

I think the US reaction will result in the commencement of hostilities in very short order. The US will have to act quickly and decisively to ensure that British territory in the Atlantic is not taken by the Germans, lest they establish sub and air bases that could threaten the Eastern United States. The US will recognize whatever British government in exile forms and the US will provide assistance to the Royal Navy in exile. Moreover, Iceland was being defended by the British. The US will have to step in to secure Iceland as its loss effectively precludes there being any hope of invading Europe or controlling the Atlantic. I can't imagine the German reaction to this would be positive.
 
Something to consider is that Canada, Bermuda, and the British Caribbean possessions implicitly meant that British interests partially coincided with American ones in terms of the Atlantic for much of the previous Century; namely that Europe was for trade but was not welcome (back) as prospective conquerors. I mean look at how downright frothy Wilson got when the Zimmerman Telegram showed up. Numerous acts of terrorism by German agents (including a truly massive pair munitions barge explosions in NYC) didn't trigger the war, but the prospect of a German-sponsored Mexico - Oh HELL NO. The same is true with a conquered Britain and Ireland, because it opens the Atlantic to European conquerors in a way not seen since Napoleon's day.

A Nazi England changes everything re: isolationism. No longer can the Atlantic Ocean be trusted to keep Europe's messes and wars away. Remember how strongly folks on the West Coast were terrified of a Japanese invasion of California despite being 5000 miles away. Unchallenged U-Boat supremacy would rapidly lead to war.
 
I suspect that had Britain joined the Axis either through invasion or subversion, De Valera would have wasted little time throwing off neutrality and joining possibly with Ribbentrop offering Dublin a free hand in Ulster as an inducement.

Obviously, an overt German move into Ireland would have been viewed negatively in Washington so if De Valera chose to remain neutral, along with Sweden, Spain and Switzerland, it's probable Hitler would have respected that in the short term.

IF Ireland is under Axis control directly or indirectly, what are the options ? The British occupied the Faeroes after the fall of Denmark but if Britain itself is overrun, it's hard to see a British presence in Torshavn surviving long. America might ensure Iceland and Greenland stay out of Axis control and Portuguese neutrality (if it remains) might mean the Americans have use of the Azores.

The other question is whether the Empire is still fighting or whether all British military activity has ended. It's entirely possible that even if the homeland is lost, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and others (though not perhaps South Africa) might try and re-group using India or the Middle East as staging posts ? Would Imperial Forces (including any evacuated from Britain before it fell) resist an Italian incursion into Egypt ? Could Malta be defended or the attempts to defend Greece be made if Britain itself has fallen ? These impact directly on Barbarossa's timing and whether there is a North African theatre.

Doubtless Hitler will attack the USSR in 1941 - will Japan attack Pearl Harbor at the end of the year ? If they do, the US and USSR would find themselves as allies or co-belligerents along with the rump of the European empires. Can the Australians, South Africans, Indians, New Zealanders and remnants of the British stop Rommel ? If they can, would logistics enable Eisenhower to land at the other side of North Africa and push the Axis back to Tunisia and Libya ?

I'm stretching it now a lot but if the American Alliance seeks to prioritise the liberation of Europe, it might land forces in Italy and southern France in 1943-44 and seek to push north as the Russians seek to push west. As the Americans approach the Channel Coast from the south, would the German occupying force in Britain be faced by a large-scale Resistance uprising (the British Resistance has both Communist (in the cities) and Royalist (in the country) elements) ? Hitler would order his Army commander in London to stand fast but with American air supremacy and the Channel ports in American hands, the likely option is for the Germans in Britain to be isolated through 1945-46.

IF the A-Bombs are dropped on Berlin or elsewhere, the occupation collapses and the Germans surrender to the Resistance or the Americans (akin to what happened in Norway in OTL). I struggle to see a German-occupied Britain surviving once Berlin falls and most of Germany is occupied. It's possible with the American and British navies in command of the Channel a contingent of American or (more likely) Empire troops would be ferried across to Dover and Folkestone and march on London largely unopposed. The German troops would be quickly deported or interned and the collaborators punished. Would a victorious Stalin seek to incite a Communist insurrection in Britain or would he recognise it as being beyond his means and accept Britain would fall into the American orbit in the post-war division of Europe.
 
I'd expect island hopping, from the Faroes to the Shetlands to the Orkneys and Outer Hebridies, and then on to the mainland in Caithness. Of course, that assumes the Nazis have played ball and not fortified any of those areas.
 
I suspect that had Britain joined the Axis either through invasion or subversion, De Valera would have wasted little time throwing off neutrality and joining possibly with Ribbentrop offering Dublin a free hand in Ulster as an inducement.

You mean other than the joint plans that Ireland and the UK had in case of invasion that Ireland joining the Allies at once and providing what aid it could? Look DeV was an asshole that could be counted on to do whatever he could to annoy Churchill as much as possible, but no he was not waiting to join cause with Hitler.
 
If the US decides around 1941 to build the B-36 rather than the B-29 then I'd say they'd have enough bombers by around 1947, or 1948. Ditto enough bombs.
More to the point, it would take about that length of time to build up a large enough force of amphibious warships and aircraft carriers to carry out an opposed landing somewhere in Europe. It was 1944 before Overlord could take place with massive UK support - take that away and you're into 1946/47 before the US could replicate that by itself without land-based air cover and with the Japanese to deal with by themselves too. By then the Atomic Bomb is a known quantity and the production problems were mostly solved - and it's just a matter of time before they have enough weapons to wipe out Germany from the air. The arguments against launching Operations Olympic and Coronet start to come to the fore then too - you've got two options, one of which will cost a huge number of American lives and one that won't. It's actually really hard to see them deciding to launch an amphibious invasion unless they have proof that the Atomic Bomb is impossible.
 
You mean other than the joint plans that Ireland and the UK had in case of invasion that Ireland joining the Allies at once and providing what aid it could? Look DeV was an asshole that could be counted on to do whatever he could to annoy Churchill as much as possible, but no he was not waiting to join cause with Hitler.

In the event of a British defeat and surrender, what would De Valera's options have been ? Either risk a full-scale invasion with damage. loss of life and the certainty of a German victory or join the winning side and make the best of it as part of the Axis ?

I agree De Valera wouldn't join with Berlin IF London was still an active belligerent but we are pre-supposing (for the purposes of his thread) that, one way or another, Britain has fallen.
 
In the event of a British defeat and surrender, what would De Valera's options have been ? Either risk a full-scale invasion with damage. loss of life and the certainty of a German victory or join the winning side and make the best of it as part of the Axis ?

I agree De Valera wouldn't join with Berlin IF London was still an active belligerent but we are pre-supposing (for the purposes of his thread) that, one way or another, Britain has fallen.

But my point is that the option for any other choice is already past, the Irish and British Governments already had agreed that an invasion of the UK meant that Ireland would join the Allies. Moreover as I asked even assuming the German's manage to take the UK what damage have they suffered? What forces are left that could fall back to Ireland? So even if the UK has fallen Ireland may already be an active belligerent anyway, unless you are suggesting that Germany would allow Ireland to jump sides after involving itself in the war?

At which point you get to the question of whether the Axis allow such a questionable "ally" at the edge of their regime
 
But my point is that the option for any other choice is already past, the Irish and British Governments already had agreed that an invasion of the UK meant that Ireland would join the Allies. Moreover as I asked even assuming the German's manage to take the UK what damage have they suffered? What forces are left that could fall back to Ireland? So even if the UK has fallen Ireland may already be an active belligerent anyway, unless you are suggesting that Germany would allow Ireland to jump sides after involving itself in the war?

At which point you get to the question of whether the Axis allow such a questionable "ally" at the edge of their regime

There are two scenarios - one is invasion. IF the Germans are militarily successful and Britain is forced to surrender, Ireland will be faced either with a full-scale assault in short order or will be given a fairly blunt ultimatum (as happened with Denmark) that unless German troops are permitted to be stationed in the country, there will be a sustained aerial assault on Dublin, Cork and other towns. Would De Valera countenance the destruction of Dublin or would he yield ? I don't know.

The other scenario is subversion or political surrender - the British Government, for whatever reason and under whatever circumstances, agrees to the political and military demands of the Germans. German troops arrive to disarm the British Army under agreement. I doubt Ireland would join the Axis but would expect Germany to continue to respect her neutrality but you would have German troops in Ulster and German naval vessels in the Irish Sea and off the Ulster coast so that neutrality would be precious and precarious. As I said earlier, it wouldn't help good relations with Washington if Germany flagrantly breached Irish neutrality and invaded but it didn't stop them elsewhere (Norway, Holland, Denmark).
 
If Germany then no longer has to have fighting forces in the west it can deal with the Soviets and has the resources of the whole of Europe up to the Urals so any US led invasion meets most of the Axis forces well supplied with airbases whilst the invaders have floating airbases which is not a good long term match. It would need extraordinarily effective misinformation to even keep some German forces away against fake other landings.

A beginning might be to take North Africa as a substitute unsinkable aircraft carrier but you had better come prepared with the kit to build an entire new transport infrastructure.
 
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