Back when Lithuania was still pagan it became involved in expanding into the territories of the East Slavs, the former Kievan Rus Empire. From what I heard, they were fairly popular with their East Slav subjects. I was wondering what if they succeeded, incorporating Novgorod and Muscovy/Vladimir-Suzdal. For example, Vytautas could have married a Rurikid princess, which would have helped his claim. What would have been the results? Lithuania would no doubt have been converted to Orthodoxy instead of Catholicism. There would have basically been a new Kievan Rus, but whose upper most ruling elite would have been mainly Lithuanian. Questions? Comments?
Right, so, this is a very popular AH scenario in the Russian AH community as well as the Lithuanian one, and there are a number of ways how it can be achieved. What I did in
The Silver Knight is have the Lithuanian-Muscovite War of 1368 be a much more crushing success from Algirdas, which eventually snowballs into Lithuanian domination over all of the former Kievan Rus' and Jogaila adopting the Orthodox faith.
It's hard to say anything concrete about such a scenario because it is such a blank slate - whether the Lithuanians will be assimilated, whether Lithuania expands into Siberia, what it's role in European affairs be are all left up to imagination and the intricacies of the scenario. In
The Silver Knight, I had Lithuania follow the path of stratocracy (as a natural outgrowth of its highly stratocratic political organization before the Union of Krewo), manifesting in an absolute monarchy and even a temporary period of Shogunate-like direct military rule, while Lithuanian expansion East is stifled at the Volga by... well, it's hard to explain, but basically a much more organized and expansionist Cossack state. That TL also had Lithuanians remain a separate ethnicity instead of assimilating into the East Slavs because of religious differences thanks to a much stronger alternate Old Believers heresy. I understand that a different person would probably imagine a Lithuanian Russia differently.
Though there are a few assumptions we can make which would apply to most versions of Lithuanian Russia. It's likely to be similarly despotic to OTL Tsarist Russia, but significantly more decentralized (unless something similar to the Oprichnina or Vytautas's centralization takes place). At the same time, Lithuania will have more ties to the rest of Europe due to its core being a lot more to the West. If it absorbs the Livonian Order (highly likely), it will come into conflict with whatever comes out of Scandinavia, which could make for alternate Northern Wars. Poland is an interesting variable, because the Polish-Lithuanian union is not happening in this scenario. I had them eventually be integrated into Sigismund Luxembourg's Bohemia-Hungary, myself.
There a timeline about this it got a turtledove
Oh man, if only.