If the Commonwealth takes over Russia, then it wouldn't be a Lithuanian Russia, but rather a Polish Russia.If the Jagiellonian dynasty survives and there is some centralization of the commonwealth, then a Lithuanian takeover as late as the times of troubles is possible. Another possibility would b the breakup of the Commonwealth and Lithuania getting an Orthodox Grand Duke. Then a Lithuanian takeover is possible during any Russian dynastic power struggle possibly as late as Catherine the Great's seizure of the throne
If the Commonwealth takes over Russia, then it wouldn't be a Lithuanian Russia, but rather a Polish Russia.
Meanwhile, if the PLC broke up, a much more likely result is Russia taking over Lithuania rather than the opposite. (Of course, it depends on how the Republic of Both Nations is broken up - if it's through the Union of Kėdainiai, for example, then Lithuania would go to Sweden instead)
A Lithuanian-dominated Commonwealth is an entirely different question and it would require a much earlier POD, possibly even as early as in the 13th century, which would leave Russia so different that something like the Time of Troubles might not even happen.It can still be a Lithuanian takeover- just have Lithuania be the dominant member of the Commonwealth. The centralization doesn't even have to be much- a common army and foreign policy with a bit of central financing.
Not possible. A "Congress Lithuania" or a Russian protectorate would likely only have the ethnic Lithuanian territory within the former Lithuania, as Russia claimed the Slavic parts of the country for itself under the pretense of being the successor of the Kievan Rus. And a Lithuania without Belarusian and Ukrainian territory would he far too weak to lay a claim on all of Russia in this scenario, even in a civil war.As for an independent Lithuania ruling Russia- yes its more likely that Russia gets Lithuania but its not impossible for Lithuania to be an independent buffer state under Russian protection. Then when Russia has an internal uprising, the Lithuanians intervene and take over. we're not looking for likely, we're looking for possible
To acquire such a truce, Lithuania would need to decisively defeat Russia in the first stage of the Livonian War, which, while possible in theory, is very unlikely, considering how badly Lithuania was getting beaten at the beginning of the war.Try this: The Lithuanians make peace with Ivan early during the Livonian War. They agree to split Livonia and form a mutual government over Riga. This gives Lithuania the customs revenue and allows them to form an army to keep the Polish grandees in line. The dynasty survives and when the Time of Troubles erupt, the Lithuanians intervene and take the Russian crown
A Lithuanian-dominated Commonwealth is an entirely different question and it would require a much earlier POD, possibly even as early as in the 13th century, which would leave Russia so different that something like the Time of Troubles might not even happen.
Not possible. A "Congress Lithuania" or a Russian protectorate would likely only have the ethnic Lithuanian territory within the former Lithuania, as Russia claimed the Slavic parts of the country for itself under the pretense of being the successor of the Kievan Rus. And a Lithuania without Belarusian and Ukrainian territory would he far too weak to lay a claim on all of Russia in this scenario, even in a civil war.
To acquire such a truce, Lithuania would need to decisively defeat Russia in the first stage of the Livonian War, which, while possible in theory, is very unlikely, considering how badly Lithuania was getting beaten at the beginning of the war.
There's also the problem of the feasibility of Lithuania taking over Russia through the Time of Troubles. Poland-Lithuania couldn't do it, and they were (arguably) in the apex of their power throughout all of their history.
A (relatively) backwater region of about 1 million people suddenly stepping up to declare it's claim on the throne of it's former overlord, and succeeding in taking over that continent-wide, multi-million nation isn't merely unlikely, it would be a damn crazy miracle. Like, Alexander the Great x10 level.Unlikely but not impossible. The whole scenario is unlikely
Lithuania was Catholic much like Poland. Even it's Orthodox population accepted some of Latin rite and Papal supremacy via the Union of Brest.First, the suggestion of a partition of Livonia is seriously discussed within Russia so it's quite possible
Second, an Orthodox Lithuania taking the throne is much different than Catholic Poland. If Lithuania and Russia are viewed as allies, then its very likely