Lithuania in WW2

What would be, if Lithuania has entered the union with Germany after rout of Poland? There were variants of the contractLithuania would become protectorate of Germany. Probably pact Molotov-Ribbentrop will not be changed?
 
What would be, if Lithuania has entered the union with Germany after rout of Poland? There were variants of the contractLithuania would become protectorate of Germany. Probably pact Molotov-Ribbentrop will not be changed?

Yep, if President Smetona agreed to Hitler's proposal to join in an alliance, the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact would not be changed a few days later, and Lithuania would have stayed in Germany's sphere of influence. Short term results would be Lithuania becoming a German protectorate rather than a Soviet state, however the country would lose the Klaipėda region and not regain Vilnius region (IIRC, the original line between the spheres of influence went along the de facto Polish-Lithuanian border of the interwar). It may however get the Seiny triangle, which was occupied by Germany in OTL.

When Barbarossa starts, Germany has a shorter way to go to Leningrad, which may mean that the city is captured. How that would affect things on the grand scale, I don't now. Maybe Hitler would focus more on the northern front than IOTL, leading to Moscow falling and no Stalingrad. Lithuania may, depending on Hitler's mood, gain some territories off of Latvira (Kurland) and Belarus (the aforementioned Vilnius region plus a bit more - the Slavs were considered more "untermensch" than the Balts), it may even become the administrative and political core of the Ostland, which would be a protectorate rather than a military district.

The change, if we neglect butterflies, is small enough to not change the overall outcome - the Soviets would still regroup and win by sheer numbers. Then, depending on the situation, the Lithuanian government would either switch sides at a good point in time, or it would not. If it would, it may end up like Hungary - prewar border (MAYBE regaining Klaipėda region and/or Vilnius region; also MAYBE, but much more maybe, getting some more parts of East Prussia, or even retaining some lands of Latvia/Belarus that Germany had granted; this is very unlikely though), member of the *Warszav pact, but not part of the USSR per se. If it wouldn't, the territory might be split between the Latvian and Belarussian SSRs, Polish People's Republic and the RTFSR, so no Lithuania remaining in any form at all.
 
When Barbarossa starts, Germany has a shorter way to go to Leningrad, which may mean that the city is captured. How that would affect things on the grand scale, I don't now. Maybe Hitler would focus more on the northern front than IOTL, leading to Moscow falling and no Stalingrad. Lithuania may, depending on Hitler's mood, gain some territories off of Latvira (Kurland) and Belarus (the aforementioned Vilnius region plus a bit more - the Slavs were considered more "untermensch" than the Balts), it may even become the administrative and political core of the Ostland, which would be a protectorate rather than a military district.
But USSR could have Central Poland-it is an old pact!
 
I had forgotten about that. And it seems (according to Molobedia at least) that the initial pact had Vilnius region as a German sphere of influence. This means that it is even more likely that Hitler would consider a northern strategy - Leningrad and Moscow are comparably closer, while Kiev and Baku are comparably farther away in this scenario.
 
I had forgotten about that. And it seems (according to Molobedia at least) that the initial pact had Vilnius region as a German sphere of influence. This means that it is even more likely that Hitler would consider a northern strategy - Leningrad and Moscow are comparably closer, while Kiev and Baku are comparably farther away in this scenario.
Galicia(West Ukraine, Lwov) is a part of German too-but In Poland USSR had the same territioies as Russian Empire. And Moscow is farther in this scenario. And Groups of armies "North"
can rush into Leningrad-but the street fights will remind their participants Verdun (and it will be similar to Stalingrad). In real History people of leningrad prepared for fights in city!
 
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