Lithuania in the Thirteen Years' War, or killing Prussia in it's crib

So one of the most disappointing events in Lithuanian history happened during the Thirteen Years' War, or, more accurately, Lithuania's (in)action during it. As we know, this was the war which was the death knell to the Teutonic Order, reducing it to a tiny fief around Koenigsberg.

Now, Poland fought this war without Lithuania, even though they were very interested in drawing them into the conflict, but they failed, and the only think that they got out of negotiations was Lithuania not allowing Livonian troops to pass through their territory.

Any amount of logic thinking points to helping Poland as the most reasonable solution - the Teutonic Order was Lithuania's eternal rival, and they were more than likely to acquire a lot of territory from it, most importantly a port, which they severely needed - but, as is unfortunately way too common in Lithuanian history, the Lithuanians were more interested in petty patriotic squabbles rather than the greater picture, and thus they instead spent the time complaining to Poland about losing Podolia.

And that's why it is a very disappointing event, because it was the best shot for Lithuania to incorporate East Prussia, which, at the time, was still Lithuanian enough to be a core territory. Klaipėda, Gumbinnen and Koenigsberg would be undoubtedly considered Lithuanian, stuff like that... And Prussia would not arise...

So what if the Thirteen Years War turned out different? What if Lithuania agreed to help Poland in the conflict and the Teutonic Order ended up partitioned between the two powers?

What would be the impact on the history of Central Europe?

What would happen in Germany now that the Duchy of Prussia has been erased from ever existing?
 
I think the question is, what is Lithuania really supporting?

The conflict began as more or less 'the Prussian cities with Polish aid' versus 'the Teutonic order' - randomly granting swathes of Prussia to Lithuania could just as well have reunited the Prussian cities with the Order against the Polish-Lithuanian alliance. The way to preclude that is to not offer any land to Lithuania just yet, but then why is Lithuania fighting (apart from 'to mess with the Teutons we dislike and help the Poles who we also currently dislike')?

I think the two options also have fundamentally different outcomes; if a Polish-Lithuanian supported confederacy of Prussia wins without losing major territories, they could form a neat arrangement for a new and enlarged Royal Prussia - i.e. a nominal vassal of Poland that is ridiculously rich and powerful and if it ever secedes noone can stop it. Butterflies will be many, and historical Prussia is still unlikely, but it'll be a mostly German/Hanseatic state that in any moment of trouble only pays lip service to Poland.

The other option, of course, could lead to a Lithuania with a rich port region (thus likely preventing it being amalgamated into Poland-Lithuania), or a destruction of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth if the Prussian cities and the Order reunite and defeat them.
 
I think the question is, what is Lithuania really supporting?

The conflict began as more or less 'the Prussian cities with Polish aid' versus 'the Teutonic order' - randomly granting swathes of Prussia to Lithuania could just as well have reunited the Prussian cities with the Order against the Polish-Lithuanian alliance. The way to preclude that is to not offer any land to Lithuania just yet, but then why is Lithuania fighting (apart from 'to mess with the Teutons we dislike and help the Poles who we also currently dislike')?

I think the two options also have fundamentally different outcomes; if a Polish-Lithuanian supported confederacy of Prussia wins without losing major territories, they could form a neat arrangement for a new and enlarged Royal Prussia - i.e. a nominal vassal of Poland that is ridiculously rich and powerful and if it ever secedes noone can stop it. Butterflies will be many, and historical Prussia is still unlikely, but it'll be a mostly German/Hanseatic state that in any moment of trouble only pays lip service to Poland.

The other option, of course, could lead to a Lithuania with a rich port region (thus likely preventing it being amalgamated into Poland-Lithuania), or a destruction of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth if the Prussian cities and the Order reunite and defeat them.
What I imagine as an outline of events is that Lithuania only enters the conflict in the second phase of the war - possibly the best time to have them be persuaded to enter is either 1460 or 1461. At that time, Poland and the Prussian cities were on the ropes, the Knights were recovering most of Western Prussia, and public opinion across Europe was turned against the Poles. At the time, the war had basically become Poland vs TO with the Confederation basically playing second fiddle, and with the situation being desperate enough, both Poland and the Prussians could agree to Lithuanian demands if it meant that they would join and help turn the tide.

What could work as a potential catalyst is Casimir agreeing to amend the border in Podolia to Lithuania's favor and promising gains in the peace treaty - if we're lucky, I think it could be enough to draw the Lithuanians in. If we're unlucky, they also demand concessions in Podlasie, because then the negotiations basically go nowhere.
 
What I imagine as an outline of events is that Lithuania only enters the conflict in the second phase of the war - possibly the best time to have them be persuaded to enter is either 1460 or 1461. At that time, Poland and the Prussian cities were on the ropes, the Knights were recovering most of Western Prussia, and public opinion across Europe was turned against the Poles. At the time, the war had basically become Poland vs TO with the Confederation basically playing second fiddle, and with the situation being desperate enough, both Poland and the Prussians could agree to Lithuanian demands if it meant that they would join and help turn the tide.

What could work as a potential catalyst is Casimir agreeing to amend the border in Podolia to Lithuania's favor and promising gains in the peace treaty - if we're lucky, I think it could be enough to draw the Lithuanians in. If we're unlucky, they also demand concessions in Podlasie, because then the negotiations basically go nowhere.
I don't think 'public opinion across Europe was turned against the Poles' is a good time to convince the Lithuanians. ;) Sounds more like a time when their support will be expensive as can be.

More importantly, said bad opinion could result in the rest of Europe doing something about it if the Lithuanians expand the conflict.
 
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