So. Central Powers victory in WW1. It's a really common AH scenario, and sometimes ends up happening in timelines which don't even have WW1 as their point of divergence. You know what's also really popular in CP WW1 victory scenarios? Having Germany establish a bunch of puppet states in Eastern Europe, all economically tied to the Kaiserreich, known as the Mitteleuropa.
And it almost always follows the borders in the mod Kaiserreich, often to the point of unoriginal ripoffs, but I digress.
Despite the establishment of these various puppet states, be it Lithuania, or Poland, or Ukraine, or the United Baltic Duchy or whatever, the internal politics, events and developments in these countries is rarely, if ever, touched upon. Usually, AH writers just assume they are sitting around being Germany's puppets (to use a slightly less strong word, one not related to female dogs) all day and nothing ever happens out there. Unless some war happens between Germany and Russia. Which is a shame, because imagining a German-dominated Eastern Europe is really interesting and opens up some interesting possibilities.
To help some of those poor AH writers who might want to look into Mitteleuropa when they're not wanking their country of choice, I've decided to put some of my thoughts on what I imagine one of these common Mitteleuropa nations, this being Lithuania, to look like in such a world.
Let's start.
Politics of Lithuania
It's more than just sticking Wilhelm von Urach at the top and calling it a day.
Generally, the most standard (or cliche, if you prefer that word) CP victory scenarios have the war be resolved through some combination of the US not joining the war, Russia peacing out, the 1918 Spring Offensive succeeding, Germany taking Paris, France rebelling, Britain peacing out, which immediately sets a number of important starting factors at play here - first, the 1917 Vilnius Conference has happened and the Council of Lithuania has been elected, representing Lithuanians as the first democratically chosen organ of the Lithuanian people, and second, the December 11 Act, declaring Lithuania as an independent constitutional monarchy under political, economic and diplomatic ties with Germany, has been signed by the Council, and later became the basis for Germany's recognition of Lithuanian independence (not the February 16 Act, which we now know as the Declaration of Restoration of Independence! That act was only recognized by the Germans after the Spring Offensive failed and in desperate need of allies, which does not happen here!). Normally, it would become the basis for an "independent" Lithuania in this scenario.
One thing should be noted was that the famous Wilhelm von Urach, who, in most CP victory timelines, ascends as the King of a puppet Kingdom of Lithuania, does not officially come into play until later - sure, he had been one of the top contenders for the Lithuanian throne, proposed by Zentrum politician and fellow Württemberger Matthias Erzberger on fall of 1917 to Lithuanian representatives Konstantinas Olšauskas and Juozas Purickis, he was by no means the only contender. It should also be noted that the Council of Lithuania's election of von Urach as Mindaugas II was more of a Lithuanian expression of independence rather than a desire to keep close ties with Germany, as he was pretty much the perfect "pro-independence" candidate for the throne - he was not a member of House Hohenzollern, he was Roman Catholic and he supported Lithuania over Poland in the territorial conflict between the independence movements of both states.
In fact, von Urach's election was actually declared illegitimate by the German government - the election came with a number of asterisks attached, including having von Urach learn the Lithuanian language and have it as his court and state language, rule from Vilnius rather than from his castle in Germany, and the kingdom will have to be a constitutional bicameral monarchy, with democratic reforms such as universal suffrage, women suffrage and other reforms. None of this was preferable to Germany and its imperialistic ambitions - it much rather preferred such candidates as Wilhelm II's son Prince Joachim or the second son of the King of Saxony, Prince Friedrich Christian, or even Wilhelm II himself. In all three of these cases, this would have resulted in a personal union between Lithuania and Germany and would leave Lithuania with little, if any, autonomy.
This is where history splits, going into two directions depending on the outcome of events after the war is resolved:
A) The good option: Germany may have won the war, but they are too exhausted to get into a conflict with their Eastern satellite and decides to just give them what they want and hope to control them through economic domination. Lithuania is established as a constitutional bicameral monarchy with universal suffrage and King Mindaugas II, instantly becoming one of the most politically progressive states in Mitteleuropa. The nation is dependent on German military help and is economically reliant on them, but is fairly autonomous otherwise.
Because the Christian Democrats and Tautininkai were the two movements who were behind this plan and propped it up, they become the most powerful political forces in the country, though definitely the former than the latter (the latter would probably remain fairly obscure or play second fiddle to LKDP), and with the Social Democrats discredited by the ongoing revolution in Russia and their opposition to the constitutional monarchy plan, the only remaining major political forces in the country are Peasant parties and minority parties, so LKDP dominates for decades on end. The political crises of OTL interwar Lithuania are unlikely and we may be much more likely to see decade-long Christian Democrat governments under people such as Aleksandras Stulginskis, Mykolas Krupavičius, Leonas Bistras and others.
B) The bad option: Imperialistic ambitions prevail in Germany and they decide to get rid of the Urach affair in Lithuania - either they force the Council of Lithuania to cancel the coronation and choose a king by themselves, or just disperse the Council completely and work with the Tautininkai and a few right-wing Christian Democrats for whatever result they want. Most likely, this would result in a personal union between Lithuania and Germany, circumventing the Reichstag Peace Resolution by not technically annexing anything, yet practically integrating Lithuania, and likely the rest of the Baltics as well, into the Kaiserreich.
It's unlikely that Lithuania would survive for all that long here, but for the few years that a puppet "Kingdom of Lithuania" remains before the masquerade is closed, I would imagine it being dominated by right-wing governments. Augustinas Voldemaras and Antanas Smetona, two of the most pro-German politicians in Lithuania at the time, would likely be the top of the pack here.
Military of Lithuania
Okay, this is actually pretty humorous.
The first Prime Minister of Lithuania after the German capitulation was Augustinas Voldemaras, and he followed a very by-the-word definition of "war to end all wars". He believed that after World War I, militaries will be unnecessary, as no more wars will ever take place, so Lithuania only needs a police force and a militia to keep itself safe. Of course, in OTL, this only made it so the Lithuanians were not adequately prepared for the Bolshevik invasion in a few months time, but in TTL, with the German Army protecting Lithuanian borders, with almost all of their borders being with allied nations (except maybe to the east, depending on what happens to Belarus), and with any Polish-Lithuanian conflict likely stopped in its crib because both states are German underlings now, those words might actually be true, at least for some time.
So you might have a Kingdom of Lithuania which does not have a military at all, only a police force, the Riflemen Union as a national militia and maybe a "royal guard" brigade or something. Of course, assuming the good path happens.
Demographics of Lithuania, and their impact
It's still not known what Lithuania's borders were going to be in the Mitteleuropa, and for obvious reasons (it never happened) - and after all, even the following Republic of Lithuania, which actually did survive for a reasonable amount of time, took two years to even establish a permanent eastern border, constantly exchanging territory with Poland, the Soviets, etc. As such, it's hard to say something concrete about the demographics of a Mitteleuropa Lithuania. However, some initial assumptions have to be made: Vilnius Region will most likely stay in Lithuanian hands (divide and conquer strategy to keep Poland and Belarus weaker, plus Vilnius being a historical capital), Suwalki may or may not fall into Lithuanian hands as well, depending on the mood of the Germans.
With that set, I think it's a fair assumption to give Lithuania the governorates of Kaunas, Vilnius and Suwalki as a starting point. Which puts its population (1897 est., not adjusted for 1918) and ethnic composition as such:
In addition, much of the population in eastern Lithuania belonged to the tutejszy category - people who lacked national self-identification and were thus labeled as Belarusians or Russians by the pro-Russian census makers. In a Mitteleuropa Lithuania, which would likely have schooling in Lithuanian and German, the tutejszy would be quickly assimilated into the Lithuanian language.
Still, that does not mean that the situation will not be unstable. In fact, it may even be worse than the OTL situation in Latvia and Estonia, and both of those have Russian minorities in the 20 percent ranges. The large and concentrated Belarusian minority, and often majority, in Eastern Lithuania would be unwilling to assimilate and seek to break away from a Lithuanian nation they do not necessarily want to be a part in, ironically resembling the OTL situation in Polish Kresy somewhat. If Russia is either Soviet or revanchist, expect them to prop up Belarusian interest groups and irredentist movements to destabilize Mitteleuropa by either causing friction between their members or by trying to get the Belarusians to rebel to join the Belarusian SSR, depending on what ends up of Belarus. The Suwalki region will harbor similar problems, just with the Poles rather than with the Belarusians. Of course, the Jewish minority will be an important dilemma as well - at 13 percent, Lithuania would have the largest percentage of Jews in all of Europe, and maybe the world, if Israel is not formed.
The fate of Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, would also be interesting. In OTL, its interwar history was shaped by being an important, though still peripheral population center in Poland, but in TTL, it will be the capital and by far the single most important city in Lithuania. The urbanization process in TTL would draw in new population for Vilnius not from Poland, but from Lithuania - after all, during the Interwar period, Lithuania went through one of the largest population booms in its history, only eclipsed by the Soviet era, and all that surplus population in the Lithuanian-speaking countryside has to go somewhere. In OTL, this was Kaunas, the temporary capital of Lithuania, whose population nearly doubled in a span of 20 years - and that rural immigrant population would drift to Vilnius instead.
So in a Mitteleuropa Lithuania, Vilnius would start to re-Lithuanize, shifting from an extremely multicultural town with only a few percent of the population being Lithuanian to a town that is still multicultural, but now with a Lithuanian plurality; meanwhile, Kaunas would never receive the population boost and thus could not ever hope to rival Vilnius in size and influence, unlike OTL. In fact, it's not a long shot to say that in such a scenario, Vilnius could become the equivalent of Riga - the heart of the nation eclipsing all of its competitors in size multiple times, and practically embodying the country itself. A fourth, or even a third of Lithuania residing in Vilnius would make for a very... interesting country.
Culture of Lithuania
As a member of Mitteleuropa, Lithuania would be firmly in the German cultural sphere and its own culture would be heavily influenced by it. I'm not sure if an equivalent of Weimar culture would develop in a victorious Kaiserreich, but knowing that it was a harsh peace and would likely result in some serious political reforms to brush off revolution, I don't see it as unlikely. As such, Lithuanian art and literature, which, during the OTL Interwar period, was still deep in aged, no longer relevant romanticism and any impact of Modernist culture usually resonated in its Neo-Romanticist movement, would be fairly different - perhaps, if participation in the Mitteleuropa means that Lithuania is more impacted by Western art and literature styles, we could see the Four Winds Movement overtake Neo-Romanticism as the primary leading force in Lithuanian literature in the period?
I personally believe that is unlikely - while the Four Winds had Kazys Binkis by their side, I don't think being more relevant to modern day will help them overtake Neo-Romanticism all by itself, when they have such talents as Nėris and Aistis by their side... unless they become modernists themselves through butterflies... - but it's still interesting to speculate about.
A Mitteleuropa Lithuania is also likely to suffer at least some brain drain to German universities. Emigration from Lithuania had been a big problem in OTL at this time period, too, but there, emigration mostly went to the Americas, which were far away, hard to reach and used an alien language. Germany, meanwhile, was right on the border, the German language would likely be mandatory for Lithuanian pupils, and the Germans could, theoretically, even encourage this immigration of talented students and intellectuals for their own gain. As for immigration into Lithuania... well, that depends on the German government itself. If the Germans are feeling like they want to integrate the Baltics into the Reich someday, some colonization will take place, though mostly voluntary anyway. If they just want to dominate Lithuania economically, population exchanges will be very one-sided.
I could probably add some more things here, but I'm getting sleepy
Any thoughts?
And it almost always follows the borders in the mod Kaiserreich, often to the point of unoriginal ripoffs, but I digress.
Despite the establishment of these various puppet states, be it Lithuania, or Poland, or Ukraine, or the United Baltic Duchy or whatever, the internal politics, events and developments in these countries is rarely, if ever, touched upon. Usually, AH writers just assume they are sitting around being Germany's puppets (to use a slightly less strong word, one not related to female dogs) all day and nothing ever happens out there. Unless some war happens between Germany and Russia. Which is a shame, because imagining a German-dominated Eastern Europe is really interesting and opens up some interesting possibilities.
To help some of those poor AH writers who might want to look into Mitteleuropa when they're not wanking their country of choice, I've decided to put some of my thoughts on what I imagine one of these common Mitteleuropa nations, this being Lithuania, to look like in such a world.
Let's start.
Politics of Lithuania
It's more than just sticking Wilhelm von Urach at the top and calling it a day.
Generally, the most standard (or cliche, if you prefer that word) CP victory scenarios have the war be resolved through some combination of the US not joining the war, Russia peacing out, the 1918 Spring Offensive succeeding, Germany taking Paris, France rebelling, Britain peacing out, which immediately sets a number of important starting factors at play here - first, the 1917 Vilnius Conference has happened and the Council of Lithuania has been elected, representing Lithuanians as the first democratically chosen organ of the Lithuanian people, and second, the December 11 Act, declaring Lithuania as an independent constitutional monarchy under political, economic and diplomatic ties with Germany, has been signed by the Council, and later became the basis for Germany's recognition of Lithuanian independence (not the February 16 Act, which we now know as the Declaration of Restoration of Independence! That act was only recognized by the Germans after the Spring Offensive failed and in desperate need of allies, which does not happen here!). Normally, it would become the basis for an "independent" Lithuania in this scenario.
One thing should be noted was that the famous Wilhelm von Urach, who, in most CP victory timelines, ascends as the King of a puppet Kingdom of Lithuania, does not officially come into play until later - sure, he had been one of the top contenders for the Lithuanian throne, proposed by Zentrum politician and fellow Württemberger Matthias Erzberger on fall of 1917 to Lithuanian representatives Konstantinas Olšauskas and Juozas Purickis, he was by no means the only contender. It should also be noted that the Council of Lithuania's election of von Urach as Mindaugas II was more of a Lithuanian expression of independence rather than a desire to keep close ties with Germany, as he was pretty much the perfect "pro-independence" candidate for the throne - he was not a member of House Hohenzollern, he was Roman Catholic and he supported Lithuania over Poland in the territorial conflict between the independence movements of both states.
In fact, von Urach's election was actually declared illegitimate by the German government - the election came with a number of asterisks attached, including having von Urach learn the Lithuanian language and have it as his court and state language, rule from Vilnius rather than from his castle in Germany, and the kingdom will have to be a constitutional bicameral monarchy, with democratic reforms such as universal suffrage, women suffrage and other reforms. None of this was preferable to Germany and its imperialistic ambitions - it much rather preferred such candidates as Wilhelm II's son Prince Joachim or the second son of the King of Saxony, Prince Friedrich Christian, or even Wilhelm II himself. In all three of these cases, this would have resulted in a personal union between Lithuania and Germany and would leave Lithuania with little, if any, autonomy.
This is where history splits, going into two directions depending on the outcome of events after the war is resolved:
A) The good option: Germany may have won the war, but they are too exhausted to get into a conflict with their Eastern satellite and decides to just give them what they want and hope to control them through economic domination. Lithuania is established as a constitutional bicameral monarchy with universal suffrage and King Mindaugas II, instantly becoming one of the most politically progressive states in Mitteleuropa. The nation is dependent on German military help and is economically reliant on them, but is fairly autonomous otherwise.
Because the Christian Democrats and Tautininkai were the two movements who were behind this plan and propped it up, they become the most powerful political forces in the country, though definitely the former than the latter (the latter would probably remain fairly obscure or play second fiddle to LKDP), and with the Social Democrats discredited by the ongoing revolution in Russia and their opposition to the constitutional monarchy plan, the only remaining major political forces in the country are Peasant parties and minority parties, so LKDP dominates for decades on end. The political crises of OTL interwar Lithuania are unlikely and we may be much more likely to see decade-long Christian Democrat governments under people such as Aleksandras Stulginskis, Mykolas Krupavičius, Leonas Bistras and others.
B) The bad option: Imperialistic ambitions prevail in Germany and they decide to get rid of the Urach affair in Lithuania - either they force the Council of Lithuania to cancel the coronation and choose a king by themselves, or just disperse the Council completely and work with the Tautininkai and a few right-wing Christian Democrats for whatever result they want. Most likely, this would result in a personal union between Lithuania and Germany, circumventing the Reichstag Peace Resolution by not technically annexing anything, yet practically integrating Lithuania, and likely the rest of the Baltics as well, into the Kaiserreich.
It's unlikely that Lithuania would survive for all that long here, but for the few years that a puppet "Kingdom of Lithuania" remains before the masquerade is closed, I would imagine it being dominated by right-wing governments. Augustinas Voldemaras and Antanas Smetona, two of the most pro-German politicians in Lithuania at the time, would likely be the top of the pack here.
Military of Lithuania
Okay, this is actually pretty humorous.
The first Prime Minister of Lithuania after the German capitulation was Augustinas Voldemaras, and he followed a very by-the-word definition of "war to end all wars". He believed that after World War I, militaries will be unnecessary, as no more wars will ever take place, so Lithuania only needs a police force and a militia to keep itself safe. Of course, in OTL, this only made it so the Lithuanians were not adequately prepared for the Bolshevik invasion in a few months time, but in TTL, with the German Army protecting Lithuanian borders, with almost all of their borders being with allied nations (except maybe to the east, depending on what happens to Belarus), and with any Polish-Lithuanian conflict likely stopped in its crib because both states are German underlings now, those words might actually be true, at least for some time.
So you might have a Kingdom of Lithuania which does not have a military at all, only a police force, the Riflemen Union as a national militia and maybe a "royal guard" brigade or something. Of course, assuming the good path happens.
Demographics of Lithuania, and their impact
It's still not known what Lithuania's borders were going to be in the Mitteleuropa, and for obvious reasons (it never happened) - and after all, even the following Republic of Lithuania, which actually did survive for a reasonable amount of time, took two years to even establish a permanent eastern border, constantly exchanging territory with Poland, the Soviets, etc. As such, it's hard to say something concrete about the demographics of a Mitteleuropa Lithuania. However, some initial assumptions have to be made: Vilnius Region will most likely stay in Lithuanian hands (divide and conquer strategy to keep Poland and Belarus weaker, plus Vilnius being a historical capital), Suwalki may or may not fall into Lithuanian hands as well, depending on the mood of the Germans.
With that set, I think it's a fair assumption to give Lithuania the governorates of Kaunas, Vilnius and Suwalki as a starting point. Which puts its population (1897 est., not adjusted for 1918) and ethnic composition as such:
- Lithuanians: 1 598 688 (43,33%)
- Belarusians: 945 338 (25,62%)
- Jews: 469 057 (12,71%)
- Poles: 400 388 (10,85%)
- Russians: 173 175 (4,69%)
- Other: 102 531 (2,77%)
- Total: 3 689 177
In addition, much of the population in eastern Lithuania belonged to the tutejszy category - people who lacked national self-identification and were thus labeled as Belarusians or Russians by the pro-Russian census makers. In a Mitteleuropa Lithuania, which would likely have schooling in Lithuanian and German, the tutejszy would be quickly assimilated into the Lithuanian language.
Still, that does not mean that the situation will not be unstable. In fact, it may even be worse than the OTL situation in Latvia and Estonia, and both of those have Russian minorities in the 20 percent ranges. The large and concentrated Belarusian minority, and often majority, in Eastern Lithuania would be unwilling to assimilate and seek to break away from a Lithuanian nation they do not necessarily want to be a part in, ironically resembling the OTL situation in Polish Kresy somewhat. If Russia is either Soviet or revanchist, expect them to prop up Belarusian interest groups and irredentist movements to destabilize Mitteleuropa by either causing friction between their members or by trying to get the Belarusians to rebel to join the Belarusian SSR, depending on what ends up of Belarus. The Suwalki region will harbor similar problems, just with the Poles rather than with the Belarusians. Of course, the Jewish minority will be an important dilemma as well - at 13 percent, Lithuania would have the largest percentage of Jews in all of Europe, and maybe the world, if Israel is not formed.
The fate of Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, would also be interesting. In OTL, its interwar history was shaped by being an important, though still peripheral population center in Poland, but in TTL, it will be the capital and by far the single most important city in Lithuania. The urbanization process in TTL would draw in new population for Vilnius not from Poland, but from Lithuania - after all, during the Interwar period, Lithuania went through one of the largest population booms in its history, only eclipsed by the Soviet era, and all that surplus population in the Lithuanian-speaking countryside has to go somewhere. In OTL, this was Kaunas, the temporary capital of Lithuania, whose population nearly doubled in a span of 20 years - and that rural immigrant population would drift to Vilnius instead.
So in a Mitteleuropa Lithuania, Vilnius would start to re-Lithuanize, shifting from an extremely multicultural town with only a few percent of the population being Lithuanian to a town that is still multicultural, but now with a Lithuanian plurality; meanwhile, Kaunas would never receive the population boost and thus could not ever hope to rival Vilnius in size and influence, unlike OTL. In fact, it's not a long shot to say that in such a scenario, Vilnius could become the equivalent of Riga - the heart of the nation eclipsing all of its competitors in size multiple times, and practically embodying the country itself. A fourth, or even a third of Lithuania residing in Vilnius would make for a very... interesting country.
Culture of Lithuania
As a member of Mitteleuropa, Lithuania would be firmly in the German cultural sphere and its own culture would be heavily influenced by it. I'm not sure if an equivalent of Weimar culture would develop in a victorious Kaiserreich, but knowing that it was a harsh peace and would likely result in some serious political reforms to brush off revolution, I don't see it as unlikely. As such, Lithuanian art and literature, which, during the OTL Interwar period, was still deep in aged, no longer relevant romanticism and any impact of Modernist culture usually resonated in its Neo-Romanticist movement, would be fairly different - perhaps, if participation in the Mitteleuropa means that Lithuania is more impacted by Western art and literature styles, we could see the Four Winds Movement overtake Neo-Romanticism as the primary leading force in Lithuanian literature in the period?
I personally believe that is unlikely - while the Four Winds had Kazys Binkis by their side, I don't think being more relevant to modern day will help them overtake Neo-Romanticism all by itself, when they have such talents as Nėris and Aistis by their side... unless they become modernists themselves through butterflies... - but it's still interesting to speculate about.
A Mitteleuropa Lithuania is also likely to suffer at least some brain drain to German universities. Emigration from Lithuania had been a big problem in OTL at this time period, too, but there, emigration mostly went to the Americas, which were far away, hard to reach and used an alien language. Germany, meanwhile, was right on the border, the German language would likely be mandatory for Lithuanian pupils, and the Germans could, theoretically, even encourage this immigration of talented students and intellectuals for their own gain. As for immigration into Lithuania... well, that depends on the German government itself. If the Germans are feeling like they want to integrate the Baltics into the Reich someday, some colonization will take place, though mostly voluntary anyway. If they just want to dominate Lithuania economically, population exchanges will be very one-sided.
I could probably add some more things here, but I'm getting sleepy
Any thoughts?
